Making a match: Combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modeling

A persistent question in the development of models for macroeconomic policy analysis has been the relative role of economic theory and evidence in their construction. This paper looks at some popular strategies that involve setting up a theoretical or conceptual model (CM) which is transformed to match the data and then made operational for policy analysis. A dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed that is similar to standard CMs. After calibration to UK data it is used to examine the utility of formal econometric methods in assessing the match of the CM to the data and also to evaluate some standard model-building strategies. Keywords: Policy oriented economic modeling; Model evaluation; VAR models

PIPP #1 - Pedestrian Interaction Patch Project

The Pedestrian Interaction Patch Project (PIPP) seeks to exert influence over and encourage abnormal pedestrian behavior. By placing an unadvertised (and non recording) interactive video manipulation system and projection source in a high traffic public area, the PIPP allows pedestrians to privately (and publically) re-engage with a previously inactive physical environment, like a commonly used walkway or corridor. This system, the results of which are projected in real time on the architectural surface, inadvertently provides pedestrians with questions around preconceived notions of self and space. In an attempt to re-activate our relationship with the physical surrounds we occupy each day the PIPP creates a new set of memories to be recalled as we re-enter known environments once PIPP has moved on and as such re-enlivens our relationship with the everyday architecture we stroll past everyday. The PIPP environment is controlled using the software program Isadora, devised by Mark Coniglio at Troika Ranch, and contains a series of video manipulation patches that are designed to not only grab the pedestrians attention but to also encourage a sense of play and interaction between the architecture, the digital environment, the initially unsuspecting participant(s) and the pedestrian audience. The PIPP was included as part of the planned walking tour for the “Playing in Urban Spaces” seminar day, and was an installation that ran for the length of the symposium in a reclaimed pedestrian space that was encountered by both the participants and general public during the course of the day long event. Ideally once discovered PIPP encouraged pedestrians to return through the course of the seminar day to see if the environmental patches had changed or altered, and changed their standard route to include the PIPP installation or to avoid it, either way, encouraging an active response to the pathways normally traveled or newly discovered each day.

Cyclist visibility at night : perceptions of visibility do not necessarily match reality

Visibility limitations make cycling at night particularly dangerous. We previously reported cyclists’ perceptions of their own visibility at night and identified clothing configurations that made them feel visible. In this study we sought to determine whether these self-perceptions reflect actual visibility when wearing these clothing configurations. In a closed-road driving environment, cyclists wore black clothing, a fluorescent vest, a reflective vest, or a reflective vest plus ankle and knee reflectors. Drivers recognised more cyclists wearing the reflective vest plus reflectors (90%) than the reflective vest alone (50%), fluorescent vest (15%) or black clothing (2%). Older drivers recognised the cyclists less often than younger drivers (51% vs 27%). The findings suggest that reflective ankle and knee markings are particularly valuable at night, while fluorescent clothing is not. Cyclists wearing fluorescent clothing may be at particular risk if they incorrectly believe themselves to be conspicuous to drivers at night.

PIPP #2 : Pedestrian Interaction Patch Project

Presented as part of the Sampled Festival at Sadlers Wells UK in January 2009, PIPP #2 continues the exploration of the first installation (PIPP #1 Leeds) and asks audiences to connect with an interactive work presented in the foyer of a major dance festival. Literally choreographing their own dances on the walls of the venue, pedestrians re-connect with the architectural surrounds generating unique memories of self.

Defending the patch : a labour geography analysis of unions’ construction of and responses to the problem of declining union membership amongst youth

If the trade union movement is to remain an influential force in the industrial, economic and socio/political arenas of industrialised nations it is vital that its recruitment of young members improve dramatically. Australian union membership levels have declined markedly over the last three decades and youth union membership levels have decreased more than any age group. Currently around 10% of young workers aged between 16-24 years are members of unions in Australia compared to 26% of workers aged 45-58 (Oliver, 2008). This decline has occurred throughout the union movement, in all states and in almost all industries and occupations. This research, which consists of interviews with union organisers and union officials, draws on perspectives from the labour geography literature to explore how union personnel located in various places, spaces and scales construct the issue of declining youth union membership. It explores the scale of connections within the labour movement and the extent to which these connections are leveraged to address the problem of youth union membership decline. To offer the reader a sense of context and perspective, the thesis firstly outlines the historical development of the union movement. It also reviews the literature on youth membership decline. Labour geography offers a rich and apposite analytical tool for investigation of this area. The notion of ‘scale’ as a dynamic, interactive, constructed and reconstructed entity (Ellem, 2006) is an appropriate lens for viewing youth-union membership issues. In this non-linear view, scale is a relational element which interplays with space, place and the environment (Howett, in Marston, 2000) rather than being ‘sequential’ and hierarchical. Importantly, the thesis investigates the notion of unions as ‘spaces of dependence’ (Cox, 1998a, p.2), organisations whose space is centred upon realising essential interests. It also considers the quality of unions’ interactions with others – their ‘spaces of engagement‘(Cox, 1998a, p.2), and the impact that this has upon their ability to recruit youth. The findings reveal that most respondents across the spectrum of the union movement attribute the decline in youth membership levels to factors external to the movement itself, such as changes to industrial relations legislation and the impact of globalisation on employment markets. However, participants also attribute responsibility for declining membership levels to the union movement itself, citing factors such as a lack of resourcing and a need to change unions’ perceived identity and methods of operation. The research further determined that networks of connections across the union movement are tenuous and, to date, are not being fully utilised to assist unions to overcome the youth recruitment dilemma. The study concludes that potential connections between unions are hampered by poor resourcing, workload issues and some deeply entrenched attitudes related to unions ‘defending (and maintaining) their patch’.

Interfacial debonding behavior of composite beam/plates with PZT patch

This paper studies interfacial debonding behavior of composite beams which include piezoelectric materials, adhesive and host beam. The focus is put on crack initiation and growth of the piezoelectric adhesive interface. Closed-form solutions of interface stresses and energy release rates are obtained for adhesive layer in the piezoelectric composite beams. Finite element analyses have been carried out to study the initiation and growth of interfaces crack for piezoelectric beams with interface element by ANSYS, in which the interface element of FE model is based on the cohesive zone models to characterize the fracture behavior of the interfacial debonding. The results have been compared with analystical solution, and the influence of different geometry and material parameters on the interfacial behavior of piezoelectric composite beams have been discussed.

Reduced-Size microstrip patch antenna for Bluetooth applications

A novel reduced-size microstrip rectangular patch antenna for Bluetooth operation is presented in this paper. The proposed antenna operates in the 2400 to 2484 MHz ISM Band. Although an air substrate is introduced, antenna occupies a small volume of 33.3×6.6×0.8 mm3. The gain and the impedance bandwidth of the antenna are predicted using a commercial Finite Element Method software package. The predicted results show good agreement with measured data.

Characteristics of a two-layer microstrip patch antenna for Bluetooth applications

A double-layer rectangular patch microstrip antenna suitable for Bluetooth applications is investigated. The patch is etched on a separate substrate which is suspended above the ground plane and supported by an MCX connector. The air gap between the patch and the ground plane increases the impedance bandwidth and can be used to tune the resonant frequency. This paper presents experimental results on the effects of various parameters on the antenna characteristics and provides guidelines for the design of such an antenna.

Anthropogenic landscape change promotes asymmetric dispersal and limits regional patch occupancy in a spatially structured bird population

1. Local extinctions in habitat patches and asymmetric dispersal between patches are key processes structuring animal populations in heterogeneous environments. Effective landscape conservation requires an understanding of how habitat loss and fragmentation influence demographic processes within populations and movement between populations. 2. We used patch occupancy surveys and molecular data for a rainforest bird, the logrunner (Orthonyx temminckii), to determine (i) the effects of landscape change and patch structure on local extinction; (ii) the asymmetry of emigration and immigration rates; (iii) the relative influence of local and between-population landscapes on asymmetric emigration and immigration; and (iv) the relative contributions of habitat loss and habitat fragmentation to asymmetric emigration and immigration. 3. Whether or not a patch was occupied by logrunners was primarily determined by the isolation of that patch. After controlling for patch isolation, patch occupancy declined in landscapes experiencing high levels of rainforest loss over the last 100 years. Habitat loss and fragmentation over the last century was more important than the current pattern of patch isolation alone, which suggested that immigration from neighbouring patches was unable to prevent local extinction in highly modified landscapes. 4. We discovered that dispersal between logrunner populations is highly asymmetric. Emigration rates were 39% lower when local landscapes were fragmented, but emigration was not limited by the structure of the between-population landscapes. In contrast, immigration was 37% greater when local landscapes were fragmented and was lower when the between-population landscapes were fragmented. Rainforest fragmentation influenced asymmetric dispersal to a greater extent than did rainforest loss, and a 60% reduction in mean patch area was capable of switching a population from being a net exporter to a net importer of dispersing logrunners. 5. The synergistic effects of landscape change on species occurrence and asymmetric dispersal have important implications for conservation. Conservation measures that maintain large patch sizes in the landscape may promote asymmetric dispersal from intact to fragmented landscapes and allow rainforest bird populations to persist in fragmented and degraded landscapes. These sink populations could form the kernel of source populations given sufficient habitat restoration. However, the success of this rescue effect will depend on the quality of the between-population landscapes.

Post-match changes in neuromuscular function and the relationship to match demands in amateur rugby league matches

Objectives: The current study investigated the change in neuromuscular contractile properties following competitive rugby league matches and the relationship with physical match demands. Design: Eleven trained, male rugby league players participated in 2–3 amateur, competitive matches (n = 30). Methods: Prior to, immediately (within 15-min) and 2 h post-match, players performed repeated counter-movement jumps (CMJ) followed by isometric tests on the right knee extensors for maximal voluntary contraction (MVC), voluntary activation (VA) and evoked twitch contractile properties of peak twitch force (Pt), rate of torque development (RTD), contraction duration (CD) and relaxation rate (RR). During each match, players wore 1 Hz Global Positioning Satellite devices to record distance and speeds of matches. Further, matches were filmed and underwent notational analysis for number of total body collisions. Results: Total, high-intensity, very-high intensity distances covered and mean speed were 5585 ± 1078 m, 661 ± 265, 216 ± 121 m and 75 ± 14 m min−1, respectively. MVC was significantly reduced immediately and 2 h post-match by 8 ± 11 and 12 ± 13% from pre-match (p < 0.05). Moreover, twitch contractile properties indicated a suppression of Pt, RTD and RR immediately post-match (p < 0.05). However, VA was not significantly altered from pre-match (90 ± 9%), immediately-post (89 ± 9%) or 2 h post (89 ± 8%), (p > 0.05). Correlation analyses indicated that total playing time (r = −0.50) and mean speed (r = −0.40) were moderately associated to the change in post-match MVC, while mean speed (r = 0.35) was moderately associated to VA. Conclusions: The present study highlights the physical demands of competitive amateur rugby league result in interruption of peripheral contractile function, and post-match voluntary torque suppression may be associated with match playing time and mean speeds.

The effect of post-match alcohol ingestion on recovery from competitive Rugby League matches

This study investigated the effects of alcohol ingestion on lower body strength and power, and physiological and cognitive recovery following competitive Rugby League matches. Nine male Rugby players participated in two matches, followed by one of two randomized interventions; a control or alcohol ingestion session. Four hours post-match, participants consumed either beverages containing a total of 1g of ethanol per kg bodyweight (vodka and orange juice; ALC) or a caloric and taste matched non-alcoholic beverage (orange juice; CONT). Pre, post, 2 h post and 16 h post match measures of countermovement jump (CMJ), maximal voluntary contraction(MVC), voluntary activation (VA), damage and stress markers of creatine kinase (CK), C-reactive protein (CRP), cortisol, and testosterone analysed from venous blood collection, and cognitive function (modified Stroop test) were determined. Alcohol resulted in large effects for decreased CMJ height(-2.35 ± 8.14 and -10.53 ± 8.36 % decrement for CONT and ALC respectively; P=0.15, d=1.40), without changes in MVC (P=0.52, d=0.70) or VA (P=0.15, d=0.69). Furthermore, alcohol resulted in a significant slowing of total time in a cognitive test (P=0.04, d=1.59), whilst exhibiting large effects for detriments in congruent reaction time (P=0.19, d=1.73). Despite large effects for increased cortisol following alcohol ingestion during recovery (P=0.28, d=1.44), post-match alcohol consumption did not unduly affect testosterone (P-0.96, d=0.10), CK (P=0.66, d=0.70) or CRP(P=0.75, d=0.60). It appears alcohol consumption during the evening following competitive rugby matches may have some detrimental effects on peak power and cognitive recovery the morning following a Rugby League match. Accordingly, practitioners should be aware of the potential associated detrimental effects of alcohol consumption on recovery and provide alcohol awareness to athletes at post-match functions.

Estimating the probability of an invalid match for matching using the rank transform

A fundamental problem faced by stereo matching algorithms is the matching or correspondence problem. A wide range of algorithms have been proposed for the correspondence problem. For all matching algorithms, it would be useful to be able to compute a measure of the probability of correctness, or reliability of a match. This paper focuses in particular on one class for matching algorithms, which are based on the rank transform. The interest in these algorithms for stereo matching stems from their invariance to radiometric distortion, and their amenability to fast hardware implementation. This work differs from previous work in that it derives, from first principles, an expression for the probability of a correct match. This method was based on an enumeration of all possible symbols for matching. The theoretical results for disparity error prediction, obtained using this method, were found to agree well with experimental results. However, disadvantages of the technique developed in this chapter are that it is not easily applicable to real images, and also that it is too computationally expensive for practical window sizes. Nevertheless, the exercise provides an interesting and novel analysis of match reliability.

Effects of acute multi-nutrient supplementation on rugby union match performance and recovery

Aim: To determine the effects of an acute multi-nutrient supplement on physiological, performance and recovery responses to intermittent-sprint running and muscular damage during rugby union matches. Methods: Using a randomised, double-blind, cross-over design, twelve male rugby union players ingested either 75 g of a comprehensive multi-nutrient supplement (SUPP), [Musashi] or 1 g of a taste and carbohydrate matched placebo (PL) for 5 days pre-competition. Competitive rugby union game running performance was then measured using 1 Hz GPS data (SPI10, SPI elite, GPSports), in addition to associated blood draws, vertical jump assessments and ratings of perceived muscular soreness (MS) pre, immediately post and 24 h post-competition. Baseline (BL) GPS data was collected during six competition rounds preceding data collection. Results: No significant differences were observed between supplement conditions for all game running, vertical jump, and ratings of perceived muscular soreness. However, effect size analysis indicated SUPP ingestion increased 1st half very high intensity running (VHIR) mean speed (d = 0.93) and 2nd half relative distance (m/min) (d = 0.97). Further, moderate increases in 2nd half VHIR distance (d = 0.73), VHIR m/min (d = 0.70) and VHIR mean speed (d = 0.56) in SUPP condition were also apparent. Moreover, SUPP demonstrated significant increases in 2nd half dist m/min, total game dist m/min and total game HIR m/min compared with BL data (P < 0.05). Further, large ES increases in VHIR time (d = 0.88) and moderate increases in 2nd half HIR m/min (d = 0.65) and 2nd half VHIR m/min (d = 0.74) were observed between SUPP and BL. Post-game aspartate aminotransferase (AST) (d = 1.16) and creatine kinase (CK) (d = 0.97) measures demonstrated increased ES values with SUPP, while AST and CK values correlated with 2nd half VHIR distance (r = −0.71 and r = −0.76 respectively). Elevated c-reactive protein (CRP) was observed post-game in both conditions, however was significantly blunted with SUPP (P = 0.05). Additionally, pre-game (d = 0.98) and post-game (d = 0.96) increases in cortisol (CORT) were apparent with SUPP. No differences were apparent between conditions for pH, lactate, glucose, HCO3, vertical jump assessments and MS (P > 0.05). Conclusion: These findings suggest SUPP may assist in the maintenance of VHIR speeds and distances covered during rugby union games, possibly via the buffering qualities of SUPP ingredients (i.e. caffeine, creatine, bicarbonate). While the mechanisms for these findings are unclear, the similar pH between conditions despite additional VHIR during SUPP may support this conclusion. Finally, correlations between increased work completed at very high intensities and muscular degradation in SUPP conditions, may mask any anti-catabolic properties of supplementation.