Bayesian modelling of surveillance and proof of freedom : the mathematical, logical & psychological challenges

Keeping exotic plant pests out of our country relies on good border control or quarantine. However with increasing globalization and mobilization some things slip through. Then the back up systems become important. This can include an expensive form of surveillance that purposively targets particular pests. A much wider net is provided by general surveillance, which is assimilated into everyday activities, like farmers checking the health of their crops. In fact farmers and even home gardeners have provided a front line warning system for some pests (eg European wasp) that could otherwise have wreaked havoc. Mathematics is used to model how surveillance works in various situations. Within this virtual world we can play with various surveillance and management strategies to "see" how they would work, or how to make them work better. One of our greatest challenges is estimating some of the input parameters : because the pest hasn't been here before, it's hard to predict how well it might behave: establishing, spreading, and what types of symptoms it might express. So we rely on experts to help us with this. This talk will look at the mathematical, psychological and logical challenges of helping experts to quantify what they think. We show how the subjective Bayesian approach is useful for capturing expert uncertainty, ultimately providing a more complete picture of what they think... And what they don't!

Bwembya Chikolwa interviewed by Nicole Lindsay for Herald Sun 20th August 2009, Property trusts hit hard by US crash,

Listed Australian property companies wrote off more than $8.5 billlion from their ill-fated US investment adventures during this reporting season.

A soft approach to solving hard problems in construction project management

Construction projects are faced with a challenge that must not be underestimated. These projects are increasingly becoming highly competitive, more complex, and difficult to manage. They become ‘wicked problems’, which are difficult to solve using traditional approaches. Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) is a systems approach that is used for analysis and problem solving in such complex and messy situations. SSM uses “systems thinking” in a cycle of action research, learning and reflection to help understand the various perceptions that exist in the minds of the different people involved in the situation. This paper examines the benefits of applying SSM to wicked problems in construction project management, especially those situations that are challenging to understand and difficult to act upon. It includes relevant examples of its use in dealing with the confusing situations that incorporate human, organizational and technical aspects.

Hard Lessons : Reflections on Governance and Crime Control in Late Modernity

The essays in this book catalogue a wide and varied range of instances where 'things go wrong' in the practice of criminal justice. The contributions document instances where laws, policies and practices have produced unintended consequences of the most deleterious kind, drawing attention to 'boot camps', detention centres and specific penal policies such as 'short, sharp shock' and 'three strikes and you're out'. Also examined are policing practices such as 'zero tolerance', 'saturation policing' and punitive laws in the area of drug use, sex offences, and prostitution. It will be demonstrated that in each of these cases, the objectives of government resulted in the creation of new and unforeseen problems requiring further reform to the justice system.

'Try hard' : Attitudes to advertising in online social networks

Advertising has recently entered many new spaces it does not fully understand. The rules that apply in traditional media do not always translate in new media environments. However, their low cost of entry and the availability of hard-to-reach target markets, such as Generation Y, make environments such as online social networking sites attractive to marketers. This paper accumulates teenage perspectives from two qualitative studies to identify attitudes towards advertising in online social network sites and develop implications for marketers seeking to advertising on social network sites.

Apparatus for monitoring load bearing rehabilitation exercises of a transfemoral amputee fitted with an osseointegrated fixation : a proof-of-concept study

The purpose of this proof-of-concept study was to determine the relevance of direct measurements to monitor the load applied on the osseointegrated fixation of transfemoral amputees during static load bearing exercises. The objectives were (A) to introduce an apparatus using a three-dimensional load transducer, (B) to present a range of derived information relevant to clinicians, (C) to report on the outcomes of a pilot study and (D) to compare the measurements from the transducer with those from the current method using a weighing scale. One transfemoral amputee fitted with an osseointegrated implant was asked to apply 10 kg, 20 kg, 40 kg and 80 kg on the fixation, using self-monitoring with the weighing scale. The loading was directly measured with a portable kinetic system including a six-channel transducer, external interface circuitry and a laptop. As the load prescribed increased from 10 kg to 80 kg, the forces and moments applied on and around the antero-posterior axis increased by 4 fold anteriorly and 14 fold medially, respectively. The forces and moments applied on and around the medio-lateral axis increased by 9 fold laterally and 16 fold from anterior to posterior, respectively. The long axis of the fixation was overloaded and underloaded in 17 % and 83 % of the trials, respectively, by up to ±10 %. This proof-of-concept study presents an apparatus that can be used by clinicians facing the challenge of improving basic knowledge on osseointegration, for the design of equipment for load bearing exercises and for rehabilitation programs.

Overcoming reputation and proof-of-work systems in botnets

Reputation and proof-of-work systems have been outlined as methods bot masters will soon use to defend their peer-to-peer botnets. These techniques are designed to prevent sybil attacks, such as those that led to the downfall of the Storm botnet. To evaluate the effectiveness of these techniques, a botnet that employed these techniques was simulated, and the amount of resources required to stage a successful sybil attack against it measured. While the proof-of-work system was found to increase the resources required for a successful sybil attack, the reputation system was found to lower the amount of resources required to disable the botnet.

Proof of causation in informed consent cases : establishing what the plaintiff would have done

A degree of judicial caution in accepting the assertion of a plaintiff as to what he or she would have done, if fully informed of risks, is clearly evident upon a review of decisions applying the common law. Civil liability legislation in some jurisdictions now precludes assertion evidence by a plaintiff. Although this legislative change was seen as creating a significant challenge for plaintiffs seeking to discharge the onus of proof of establishing causation in such cases, recent decisions suggest a more limited practical effect. While a plaintiff’s ex post facto assertions as to what he or she would have done if fully informed of risks may now be inadmissible, objective and subjective evidence as to the surrounding facts and circumstances, in particular the plaintiff’s prior attitudes and conduct, and the assertion evidence of others remains admissible. Given the court’s reliance on both objective and subjective evidence, statistical evidence may be of increasing importance.

Stronger difficulty notions for client puzzles and denial-of-service-resistant protocols

Client puzzles are meant to act as a defense against denial of service (DoS) attacks by requiring a client to solve some moderately hard problem before being granted access to a resource. However, recent client puzzle difficulty definitions (Stebila and Ustaoglu, 2009; Chen et al., 2009) do not ensure that solving n puzzles is n times harder than solving one puzzle. Motivated by examples of puzzles where this is the case, we present stronger definitions of difficulty for client puzzles that are meaningful in the context of adversaries with more computational power than required to solve a single puzzle. A protocol using strong client puzzles may still not be secure against DoS attacks if the puzzles are not used in a secure manner. We describe a security model for analyzing the DoS resistance of any protocol in the context of client puzzles and give a generic technique for combining any protocol with a strong client puzzle to obtain a DoS-resistant protocol.

The mechanical heterogeneity of the hard callus influences local tissue strains during bone healing : a finite element study based on sheep experiments

During secondary fracture healing, various tissue types including new bone are formed. The local mechanical strains play an important role in tissue proliferation and differentiation. To further our mechanobiological understanding of fracture healing, a precise assessment of local strains is mandatory. Until now, static analyses using Finite Elements (FE) have assumed homogenous material properties. With the recent quantification of both the spatial tissue patterns (Vetter et al., 2010) and the development of elastic modulus of newly formed bone during healing (Manjubala et al., 2009), it is now possible to incorporate this heterogeneity. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate the effect of this heterogeneity on the strain patterns at six successive healing stages. The input data of the present work stemmed from a comprehensive cross-sectional study of sheep with a tibial osteotomy (Epari et al., 2006). In our FE model, each element containing bone was described by a bulk elastic modulus, which depended on both the local area fraction and the local elastic modulus of the bone material. The obtained strains were compared with the results of hypothetical FE models assuming homogeneous material properties. The differences in the spatial distributions of the strains between the heterogeneous and homogeneous FE models were interpreted using a current mechanobiological theory (Isakson et al., 2006). This interpretation showed that considering the heterogeneity of the hard callus is most important at the intermediate stages of healing, when cartilage transforms to bone via endochondral ossification.