On the effective hydraulic conductivity and macrodispersivity for density-dependent groundwater flow

In this paper, semi-analytical expressions of the effective hydraulic conductivity ( KE) and macrodispersivity ( αE) for 3D steady-state density-dependent groundwater flow are derived using a stationary spectral method. Based on the derived expressions, we present the dependence of KE and αE on the density of fluid under different dispersivity and spatial correlation scale of hydraulic conductivity. The results show that the horizontal KE and αE are not affected by density-induced flow. However, due to gravitational instability of the fluid induced by density contrasts, both vertical KE and αE are found to be reduced slightly when the density factor ( γ ) is less than 0.01, whereas significant decreases occur when γ exceeds 0.01. Of note, the variation of KE and αE is more significant when local dispersivity is small and the correlation scale of hydraulic conductivity is large.

A two-Dimensional finite volume method for variable density flow and solute transport through saturated-unsaturated media

Extensive groundwater withdrawal has resulted in a severe seawater intrusion problem in the Gooburrum aquifers at Bundaberg, Queensland, Australia. Better management strategies can be implemented by understanding the seawater intrusion processes in those aquifers. To study the seawater intrusion process in the region, a two-dimensional density-dependent, saturated and unsaturated flow and transport computational model is used. The model consists of a coupled system of two non-linear partial differential equations. The first equation describes the flow of a variable-density fluid, and the second equation describes the transport of dissolved salt. A two-dimensional control volume finite element model is developed for simulating the seawater intrusion into the heterogeneous aquifer system at Gooburrum. The simulation results provide a realistic mechanism by which to study the convoluted transport phenomena evolving in this complex heterogeneous coastal aquifer.

Interaction of myxomatosis and Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease in wild rabbit

Increasing resistance of rabbits to myxomatosis in Australia has led to the exploration of Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease, also called Rabbit Calicivirus Disease (RCD) as a possible control agent. While the initial spread of RCD in Australia resulted in widespread rabbit mortality in affected areas, the possible population dynamic effects of RCD and myxomatosis operating within the same system have not been properly explored. Here we present early mathematical modelling examining the interaction between the two diseases. In this study we use a deterministic compartment model, based on the classical SIR model in infectious disease modelling. We consider, here, only a single strain of myxomatosis and RCD and neglect latent periods. We also include logistic population growth, with the inclusion of seasonal birth rates. We assume there is no cross-immunity due to either disease. The mathematical model allows for the possibility of both diseases to be simultaneously present in an individual, although results are also presented for the case where co infection is not possible, since co-infection is thought to be rare and questions exist as to whether it can occur. The simulation results of this investigation show that it is a crucial issue and should be part of future field studies. A single simultaneous outbreak of RCD and myxomatosis was simulated, while ignoring natural births and deaths, appropriate for a short timescale of 20 days. Simultaneous outbreaks may be more common in Queensland. For the case where co-infection is not possible we find that the simultaneous presence of myxomatosis in the population suppresses the prevalence of RCD, compared to an outbreak of RCD with no outbreak of myxomatosis, and thus leads to a less effective control of the population. The reason for this is that infection with myxomatosis removes potentially susceptible rabbits from the possibility of infection with RCD (like a vaccination effect). We found that the reduction in the maximum prevalence of RCD was approximately 30% for an initial prevalence of 20% of myxomatosis, for the case where there was no simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis, but the peak prevalence was only 15% when there was a simultaneous outbreak of myxomatosis. However, this maximum reduction will depend on other parameter values chosen. When co-infection is allowed then this suppression effect does occur but to a lesser degree. This is because the rabbits infected with both diseases reduces the prevalence of myxomatosis. We also simulated multiple outbreaks over a longer timescale of 10 years, including natural population growth rates, with seasonal birth rates and density dependent(logistic) death rates. This shows how both diseases interact with each other and with population growth. Here we obtain sustained outbreaks occurring approximately every two years for the case of a simultaneous outbreak of both diseases but without simultaneous co-infection, with the prevalence varying from 0.1 to 0.5. Without myxomatosis present then the simulation predicts RCD dies out quickly without further introduction from elsewhere. With the possibility of simultaneous co-infection of rabbits, sustained outbreaks are possible but then the outbreaks are less severe and more frequent (approximately yearly). While further model development is needed, our work to date suggests that: 1) the diseases are likely to interact via their impacts on rabbit abundance levels, and 2) introduction of RCD can suppress myxomatosis prevalence. We recommend that further modelling in conjunction with field studies be carried out to further investigate how these two diseases interact in the population.

Bioeconomic modelling and risk assessment of tiger prawn (Penaeus esculentus) stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia

A bioeconomic model was developed to evaluate the potential performance of brown tiger prawn stock enhancement in Exmouth Gulf, Australia. This paper presents the framework for the bioeconomic model and risk assessment for all components of a stock enhancement operation, i.e. hatchery, grow-out, releasing, population dynamics, fishery, and monitoring, for a commercial scale enhancement of about 100 metric tonnes, a 25% increase in average annual catch in Exmouth Gulf. The model incorporates uncertainty in estimates of parameters by using a distribution for the parameter over a certain range, based on experiments, published data, or similar studies. Monte Carlo simulation was then used to quantify the effects of these uncertainties on the model-output and on the economic potential of a particular production target. The model incorporates density-dependent effects in the nursery grounds of brown tiger prawns. The results predict that a release of 21 million 1 g prawns would produce an estimated enhanced prawn catch of about 100 t. This scale of enhancement has a 66.5% chance of making a profit. The largest contributor to the overall uncertainty of the enhanced prawn catch was the post-release mortality, followed by the density-dependent mortality caused by released prawns. These two mortality rates are most difficult to estimate in practice and are much under-researched in stock enhancement.

How critical is fibrous cap thickness to carotid plaque stability? A flow-plaque interaction model

Background and Purpose Acute cerebral ischemic events are associated with rupture of vulnerable carotid atheroma and subsequent thrombosis. Factors such as luminal stenosis and fibrous cap thickness have been thought to be important risk factors for plaque rupture. We used a flow-structure interaction model to simulate the interaction between blood flow and atheromatous plaque to evaluate the effect of the degree of luminal stenosis and fibrous cap thickness on plaque vulnerability. Methods A coupled nonlinear time-dependent model with a flow-plaque interaction simulation was used to perform flow and stress/strain analysis in a stenotic carotid artery model. The stress distribution within the plaque and the flow conditions within the vessel were calculated for every case when varying the fibrous cap thickness from 0.1 to 2 mm and the degree of luminal stenosis from 10% to 95%. A rupture stress of 300 kPa was chosen to indicate a high risk of plaque rupture. A 1-sample t test was used to compare plaque stresses with the rupture stress. Results High stress concentrations were found in the plaques in arteries with >70% degree of stenosis. Plaque stresses in arteries with 30% to 70% stenosis increased exponentially as fibrous cap thickness decreased. A decrease of fibrous cap thickness from 0.4 to 0.2 mm resulted in an increase of plaque stress from 141 to 409 kPa in a 40% degree stenotic artery. Conclusions There is an increase in plaque stress in arteries with a thin fibrous cap. The presence of a moderate carotid stenosis (30% to 70%) with a thin fibrous cap indicates a high risk for plaque rupture. Patients in the future may be risk stratified by measuring both fibrous cap thickness and luminal stenosis.

Can hybridization cause local extinction : the case for demographic swamping of the Australian native, Senecio pinnatifolius, by the invasive, S. madagascariensis?

The outcome of interspecific hybridization between native and invasive species depends on the relative frequencies of parental taxa and viability of hybrid progeny. We investigated individual and population level consequences of hybridization between the Australian native, Senecio pinnatifolius, and the exotic S. madagascariensis, with AFLP markers and used this information to simulate the expected outcome of hybridization.A high frequency (range 8.3-75.6 %) of hybrids was detected in open pollinated seeds of both species, but mature hybrids were absent from sympatric populations indicating that sympatric populations represent tension zones. A hybridization advantage was observed for S. madagascariensis,where significantly more progeny than expected were sired based on proportional representation of the two species in sympatric populations. Simulations indicated S. pinnatifolius could be replaced in sympatric populations if hybridization was density dependent.For this native-exotic pair, prezygotic isolating barriers are weak, but low hybrid viability maintains a strong postzygotic barrier to introgression. Due to asymmetric hybridization, S. pinnatifolius appears under threat from demographic swamping, and local extinction is possible where it occurs in sympatry with S. madagascariensis.

Phagocytosis of cross-linked gelatin matrix by human breast carcinoma cells correlates with their invasive capacity

During invasion and metastasis, cancer cells interact closely with the extracellular matrix molecules by attachment, degradation, and migration. We demonstrated previously the local degradation of fluorescently labeled gelatin matrix by cancer cells at invasive membrane protrusions, called invadopodia. Using the newly developed quantitative fluorescence-activated cell sorting-phagocytosis assay and image analysis of localized degradation of fluorescently labeled matrix, we document here that degradation and site- specific removal of cross-linked gelatin matrix is correlated with the extent of phagocytosis in human breast cancer cells. A higher phagocytic capacity is generally associated with increasing invasiveness, documented in other invasion and motility assays as well. Gelatin phagocytosis is time and cell density dependent, and it is mediated by the actin cytoskeleton. Most of the intracellular gelatin is routed to actively acidified vesicles, as demonstrated by the fluorescent colocalization of gelatin with acidic vesicles, indicating the intracellular degradation of the phagocytosed matrix in lysosomes. We show here that normal intracellular routing is blocked after treatment with acidification inhibitors. In addition, the need for partial proteolytic degradation of the matrix prior to phagocytosis is demonstrated by the inhibition of gelatin phagocytosis with different serine and metalloproteinase inhibitors and its stimulation by conditioned medium containing the matrix metalloproteinases MMP-2 and MMP-9. Our results demonstrate that phagocytosis of extracellular matrix is an inherent feature of breast tumor cells that correlates with and may even directly contribute to their invasive capacity. This assay is useful for screening and evaluating potential anti-invasive agents because it is fast, reproducible, and versatile.

Semiparametric estimation of count regression models

This paper develops a semiparametric estimation approach for mixed count regression models based on series expansion for the unknown density of the unobserved heterogeneity. We use the generalized Laguerre series expansion around a gamma baseline density to model unobserved heterogeneity in a Poisson mixture model. We establish the consistency of the estimator and present a computational strategy to implement the proposed estimation techniques in the standard count model as well as in truncated, censored, and zero-inflated count regression models. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the finite sample behavior of the estimator is quite good. The paper applies the method to a model of individual shopping behavior. © 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Modelling of a magnetocaloric system for cooling in the kilowatt range

A numerical time-dependent model of an active magnetic regenerator (AMR) was developed for cooling in the kilowatt range. Earlier numerical models have been mostly developed for cooling power in the 0.4 kW range. In contrast, this paper reports the applicability of magnetic refrigeration to the 50 kW range. A packed bed active magnetic regenerator was modelled and the influence of parameters such as geometry and operating parameters were studied for different geometries. The pressure drop for AMR bed length and particle diameter was also studied. High cooling power and coefficient of performance (COP) were achieved by optimization of the diameter of the magnetocaloric powder particles and operating frequency. The optimum operating conditions of the AMR for a cooling capacity of 50 kW was determined for a temperature span of 15 K. The predicted coefficient of performance (COP) was found to be ∼6, making it an attractive alternative to vapour compression systems.

Subpopulation triage: How to allocate conservation effort among populations

Threatened species often exist in a small number of isolated subpopulations. Given limitations on conservation spending, managers must choose from strategies that range from managing just one subpopulation and risking all other subpopulations to managing all subpopulations equally and poorly, thereby risking the loss of all subpopulations. We took an economic approach to this problem in an effort to discover a simple rule of thumb for optimally allocating conservation effort among subpopulations. This rule was derived by maximizing the expected number of extant subpopulations remaining given n subpopulations are actually managed. We also derived a spatiotemporally optimized strategy through stochastic dynamic programming. The rule of thumb suggested that more subpopulations should be managed if the budget increases or if the cost of reducing local extinction probabilities decreases. The rule performed well against the exact optimal strategy that was the result of the stochastic dynamic program and much better than other simple strategies (e.g., always manage one extant subpopulation or half of the remaining subpopulation). We applied our approach to the allocation of funds in 2 contrasting case studies: reduction of poaching of Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) and habitat acquisition for San Joaquin kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis mutica). For our estimated annual budget for Sumatran tiger management, the mean time to extinction was about 32 years. For our estimated annual management budget for kit foxes in the San Joaquin Valley, the mean time to extinction was approximately 24 years. Our framework allows managers to deal with the important question of how to allocate scarce conservation resources among subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2008 Society for Conservation Biology.

Simulation of the interaction between blood flow and atherosclerotic plaque

It has been well accepted that over 50% of cerebral ischemic events are the result of rupture of vulnerable carotid atheroma and subsequent thrombosis. Such strokes are potentially preventable by carotid interventions. Selection of patients for intervention is currently based on the severity of carotid luminal stenosis. It has been, however, widely accepted that luminal stenosis alone may not be an adequate predictor of risk. To evaluate the effects of degree of luminal stenosis and plaque morphology on plaque stability, we used a coupled nonlinear time-dependent model with flow-plaque interaction simulation to perform flow and stress/strain analysis for stenotic artery with a plaque. The Navier-Stokes equations in the Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation were used as the governing equations for the fluid. The Ogden strain energy function was used for both the fibrous cap and the lipid pool. The plaque Principal stresses and flow conditions were calculated for every case when varying the fibrous cap thickness from 0.1 to 2mm and the degree of luminal stenosis from 10% to 90%. Severe stenosis led to high flow velocities and high shear stresses, but a low or even negative pressure at the throat of the stenosis. Higher degree of stenosis and thinner fibrous cap led to larger plaque stresses, and a 50% decrease of fibrous cap thickness resulted in a 200% increase of maximum stress. This model suggests that fibrous cap thickness is critically related to plaque vulnerability and that, even within presence of moderate stenosis, may play an important role in the future risk stratification of those patients when identified in vivo using high resolution MR imaging.

Integration and optimization of pressure retarded osmosis with reverse osmosis for power generation and high efficiency desalination

Salinity gradient power is proposed as a source of renewable energy when two solutions of different salinity are mixed. In particular, Pressure Retarded Osmosis (PRO) coupled with a Reverse Osmosis process (RO) has been previously suggested for power generation, using RO brine as the draw solution. However, integration of PRO with RO may have further value for increasing the extent of water recovery in a desalination process. Consequently, this study was designed to model the impact of various system parameters to better understand how to design and operate practical PRO-RO units. The impact of feed salinity and recovery rate for the RO process on the concentration of draw solution, feed pressure, and membrane area of the PRO process was evaluated. The PRO system was designed to operate at maximum power density of . Model results showed that the PRO power density generated intensified with increasing seawater salinity and RO recovery rate. For an RO process operating at 52% recovery rate and 35 g/L feed salinity, a maximum power density of 24 W/m2 was achieved using 4.5 M NaCl draw solution. When seawater salinity increased to 45 g/L and the RO recovery rate was 46%, the PRO power density increased to 28 W/m2 using 5 M NaCl draw solution. The PRO system was able to increase the recovery rate of the RO by up to 18% depending on seawater salinity and RO recovery rate. This result suggested a potential advantage of coupling PRO process with RO system to increase the recovery rate of the desalination process and reduce brine discharge.

Time-Dependent Density Functional Molecular Orbital and Excited State Calculations on Bis(porphyrinyl)butadiynes in the Monocationic, Neutral, Monoanionic, and Dianionic Oxidation States

We report a theoretical study of the multiple oxidation states (1+, 0, 1−, and 2−) of a meso,meso-linked diporphyrin, namely bis[10,15,20-triphenylporphyrinatozinc(II)-5-yl]butadiyne (4), using Time-Dependent Density Functional Theory (TDDFT). The origin of electronic transitions of singlet excited states is discussed in comparison to experimental spectra for the corresponding oxidation states of the close analogue bis{10,15,20-tris[3‘,5‘-di-tert-butylphenyl]porphyrinatozinc(II)-5-yl}butadiyne (3). The latter were measured in previous work under in situ spectroelectrochemical conditions. Excitation energies and orbital compositions of the excited states were obtained for these large delocalized aromatic radicals, which are unique examples of organic mixed-valence systems. The radical cations and anions of butadiyne-bridged diporphyrins such as 3 display characteristic electronic absorption bands in the near-IR region, which have been successfully predicted with use of these computational methods. The radicals are clearly of the “fully delocalized” or Class III type. The key spectral features of the neutral and dianionic states were also reproduced, although due to the large size of these molecules, quantitative agreement of energies with observations is not as good in the blue end of the visible region. The TDDFT calculations are largely in accord with a previous empirical model for the spectra, which was based simplistically on one-electron transitions among the eight key frontier orbitals of the C4 (1,4-butadiyne) linked diporphyrins.