Critical gap estimation by numerical and statistical highest likelihood search

Many traffic situations require drivers to cross or merge into a stream having higher priority. Gap acceptance theory enables us to model such processes to analyse traffic operation. This discussion demonstrated that numerical search fine tuned by statistical analysis can be used to determine the most likely critical gap for a sample of drivers, based on their largest rejected gap and accepted gap. This method shares some common features with the Maximum Likelihood Estimation technique (Troutbeck 1992) but lends itself well to contemporary analysis tools such as spreadsheet and is particularly analytically transparent. This method is considered not to bias estimation of critical gap due to very small rejected gaps or very large rejected gaps. However, it requires a sufficiently large sample that there is reasonable representation of largest rejected gap/accepted gap pairs within a fairly narrow highest likelihood search band.

Novel methods and the maximum likelihood estimation technique for estimating traffic critical gap

Most unsignalised intersection capacity calculation procedures are based on gap acceptance models. Accuracy of critical gap estimation affects accuracy of capacity and delay estimation. Several methods have been published to estimate drivers’ sample mean critical gap, the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) technique regarded as the most accurate. This study assesses three novel methods; Average Central Gap (ACG) method, Strength Weighted Central Gap method (SWCG), and Mode Central Gap method (MCG), against MLE for their fidelity in rendering true sample mean critical gaps. A Monte Carlo event based simulation model was used to draw the maximum rejected gap and accepted gap for each of a sample of 300 drivers across 32 simulation runs. Simulation mean critical gap is varied between 3s and 8s, while offered gap rate is varied between 0.05veh/s and 0.55veh/s. This study affirms that MLE provides a close to perfect fit to simulation mean critical gaps across a broad range of conditions. The MCG method also provides an almost perfect fit and has superior computational simplicity and efficiency to the MLE. The SWCG method performs robustly under high flows; however, poorly under low to moderate flows. Further research is recommended using field traffic data, under a variety of minor stream and major stream flow conditions for a variety of minor stream movement types, to compare critical gap estimates using MLE against MCG. Should the MCG method prove as robust as MLE, serious consideration should be given to its adoption to estimate critical gap parameters in guidelines.

Estimating the mean critical gap

The estimation of the critical gap has been an issue since the 1970s, when gap acceptance was introduced to evaluate the capacity of unsignalized intersections. The critical gap is the shortest gap that a driver is assumed to accept. A driver’s critical gap cannot be measured directly and a number of techniques have been developed to estimate the mean critical gaps of a sample of drivers. This paper reviews the ability of the Maximum Likelihood technique and the Probability Equilibrium Method to predict the mean and standard deviation of the critical gap with a simulation of 100 drivers, repeated 100 times for each flow condition. The Maximum Likelihood method gave consistent and unbiased estimates of the mean critical gap. Whereas the probability equilibrium method had a significant bias that was dependent on the flow in the priority stream. Both methods were reasonably consistent, although the Maximum Likelihood Method was slightly better. If drivers are inconsistent, then again the Maximum Likelihood method is superior. A criticism levelled at the Maximum Likelihood method is that a distribution of the critical gap has to be assumed. It was shown that this does not significantly affect its ability to predict the mean and standard deviation of the critical gaps. Finally, the Maximum Likelihood method can predict reasonable estimates with observations for 25 to 30 drivers. A spreadsheet procedure for using the Maximum Likelihood method is provided in this paper. The PEM can be improved if the maximum rejected gap is used.

Microscopic modelling of freeway operations

Freeways are divided roadways designed to facilitate the uninterrupted movement of motor vehicles. However, many freeways now experience demand flows in excess of capacity, leading to recurrent congestion. The Highway Capacity Manual (TRB, 1994) uses empirical macroscopic relationships between speed, flow and density to quantify freeway operations and performance. Capacity may be predicted as the maximum uncongested flow achievable. Although they are effective tools for design and analysis, macroscopic models lack an understanding of the nature of processes taking place in the system. Szwed and Smith (1972, 1974) and Makigami and Matsuo (1990) have shown that microscopic modelling is also applicable to freeway operations. Such models facilitate an understanding of the processes whilst providing for the assessment of performance, through measures of capacity and delay. However, these models are limited to only a few circumstances. The aim of this study was to produce more comprehensive and practical microscopic models. These models were required to accurately portray the mechanisms of freeway operations at the specific locations under consideration. The models needed to be able to be calibrated using data acquired at these locations. The output of the models needed to be able to be validated with data acquired at these sites. Therefore, the outputs should be truly descriptive of the performance of the facility. A theoretical basis needed to underlie the form of these models, rather than empiricism, which is the case for the macroscopic models currently used. And the models needed to be adaptable to variable operating conditions, so that they may be applied, where possible, to other similar systems and facilities. It was not possible to produce a stand-alone model which is applicable to all facilities and locations, in this single study, however the scene has been set for the application of the models to a much broader range of operating conditions. Opportunities for further development of the models were identified, and procedures provided for the calibration and validation of the models to a wide range of conditions. The models developed, do however, have limitations in their applicability. Only uncongested operations were studied and represented. Driver behaviour in Brisbane was applied to the models. Different mechanisms are likely in other locations due to variability in road rules and driving cultures. Not all manoeuvres evident were modelled. Some unusual manoeuvres were considered unwarranted to model. However the models developed contain the principal processes of freeway operations, merging and lane changing. Gap acceptance theory was applied to these critical operations to assess freeway performance. Gap acceptance theory was found to be applicable to merging, however the major stream, the kerb lane traffic, exercises only a limited priority over the minor stream, the on-ramp traffic. Theory was established to account for this activity. Kerb lane drivers were also found to change to the median lane where possible, to assist coincident mergers. The net limited priority model accounts for this by predicting a reduced major stream flow rate, which excludes lane changers. Cowan's M3 model as calibrated for both streams. On-ramp and total upstream flow are required as input. Relationships between proportion of headways greater than 1 s and flow differed for on-ramps where traffic leaves signalised intersections and unsignalised intersections. Constant departure onramp metering was also modelled. Minimum follow-on times of 1 to 1.2 s were calibrated. Critical gaps were shown to lie between the minimum follow-on time, and the sum of the minimum follow-on time and the 1 s minimum headway. Limited priority capacity and other boundary relationships were established by Troutbeck (1995). The minimum average minor stream delay and corresponding proportion of drivers delayed were quantified theoretically in this study. A simulation model was constructed to predict intermediate minor and major stream delays across all minor and major stream flows. Pseudo-empirical relationships were established to predict average delays. Major stream average delays are limited to 0.5 s, insignificant compared with minor stream delay, which reach infinity at capacity. Minor stream delays were shown to be less when unsignalised intersections are located upstream of on-ramps than signalised intersections, and less still when ramp metering is installed. Smaller delays correspond to improved merge area performance. A more tangible performance measure, the distribution of distances required to merge, was established by including design speeds. This distribution can be measured to validate the model. Merging probabilities can be predicted for given taper lengths, a most useful performance measure. This model was also shown to be applicable to lane changing. Tolerable limits to merging probabilities require calibration. From these, practical capacities can be estimated. Further calibration is required of traffic inputs, critical gap and minimum follow-on time, for both merging and lane changing. A general relationship to predict proportion of drivers delayed requires development. These models can then be used to complement existing macroscopic models to assess performance, and provide further insight into the nature of operations.

Outcomes following inpatient rehabilitation of lower limb amputees

Introduction: Lower-limb amputations are a serious adverse consequence of lifestyle related chronic conditions and a serious concern among the aging population in Australia. Lower limb amputations have severe personal, social and economic impacts on the individual, healthcare system and broader community. This study aimed to address a critical gap in the research literature by investigating the physical functioning and social characteristics of lower limb amputees at discharge from tertiary hospital inpatient rehabilitation. Method: A cohort study was implemented among patients with lower limb amputations admitted to a Geriatric Assessment and Rehabilitation Unit for rehabilitation at a tertiary hospital. Conventional descriptive statistics were used to examine patient demographic, physical functioning and social living outcomes recorded for patients admitted between 2005 and 2011. Results: A total of 423 admissions occurred during the study period, 313 (74%) were male. This sample included admissions for left (n = 189, 45%), right (n = 220, 52%) and bilateral (n = 14, 3%) lower limb amputations, with 15 (3%) patients dying whilst an inpatient. The mean (standard deviation) age was 65 (13.9) years. Amputations attributed to vascular causes accounted for 333 (78%) admissions; 65 (15%) of these had previously had an amputation. The mean (SD) length of stay in the rehabilitation unit was 56 (42) days. Prior to this admission, 123 (29%) patients were living alone, 289 (68%) were living with another and 3 (0.7%) were living in residential care. Following this amputation related admission, 89 (21%) patients did not return to their prior living situation. Of those admitted, 187 (44%) patients were discharged with a lower limb prosthesis. Conclusion: The clinical group is predominately older adults. The ratio of males to females was approximately 3:1. Over half did not return to walking and many were not able to return to their prior accommodation. However, few patients died during their admission.

Timed Probabilistic Automaton : a bridge between Raven and Song Scope for automatic species recognition

Raven and Song Scope are two automated sound anal-ysis tools based on machine learning technique for en-vironmental monitoring. Many research works have been conducted upon them, however, no or rare explo-ration mentions about the performance and comparison between them. This paper investigates the comparisons from six aspects: theory, software interface, ease of use, detection targets, detection accuracy, and potential application. Through deep exploration one critical gap is identified that there is a lack of approach to detect both syllables and call structures, since Raven only aims to detect syllables while Song Scope targets call structures. Therefore, a Timed Probabilistic Automata (TPA) system is proposed which separates syllables first and clusters them into complex structures after.

Development of reverse phase protein microarrays for clinical applications and patient-tailored therapy

While genomics provide important information about the somatic genetic changes, and RNA transcript profiling can reveal important expression changes that correlate with outcome and response to therapy, it is the proteins that do the work in the cell. At a functional level, derangements within the proteome, driven by post-translational and epigenetic modifications, such as phosphorylation, is the cause of a vast majority of human diseases. Cancer, for instance, is a manifestation of deranged cellular protein molecular networks and cell signaling pathways that are based on genetic changes at the DNA level. Importantly, the protein pathways contain the drug targets in signaling networks that govern overall cellular survival, proliferation, invasion and cell death. Consequently, the promise of proteomics resides in the ability to extend analysis beyond correlation to causality. A critical gap in the information knowledge base of molecular profiling is an understanding of the ongoing activity of protein signaling in human tissue: what is activated and “in use” within the human body at any given point in time. To address this gap, we have invented a new technology, called reverse phase protein microarrays, that can generate a functional read-out of cell signaling networks or pathways for an individual patient obtained directly from a biopsy specimen. This “wiring diagram” can serve as the basis for both, selection of a therapy and patient stratification.

Info-gap theory and robust design of surveillance for invasive species : the case study of Barrow Island

Surveillance for invasive non-indigenous species (NIS) is an integral part of a quarantine system. Estimating the efficiency of a surveillance strategy relies on many uncertain parameters estimated by experts, such as the efficiency of its components in face of the specific NIS, the ability of the NIS to inhabit different environments, and so on. Due to the importance of detecting an invasive NIS within a critical period of time, it is crucial that these uncertainties be accounted for in the design of the surveillance system. We formulate a detection model that takes into account, in addition to structured sampling for incursive NIS, incidental detection by untrained workers. We use info-gap theory for satisficing (not minimizing) the probability of detection, while at the same time maximizing the robustness to uncertainty. We demonstrate the trade-off between robustness to uncertainty, and an increase in the required probability of detection. An empirical example based on the detection of Pheidole megacephala on Barrow Island demonstrates the use of info-gap analysis to select a surveillance strategy.

Assessment of critical constructability activities among Malaysian building contractors

After the primary researches on constructability issue which were implemented in United States, United Kingdom and Australia, more explorations were applied on that in order to assess this unique scientific fact in East Asian country of Malaysia. Based on the latest researches done on constructability concept in Malaysia, the most Critical Constructability Activities (CCAs) are defined according to amount of contractors’ participation in each activity and amount of gap between actual and potential effects of each of them on achieving the overall objectives of the construction projects with more cost and time savings and better quality which is the whole aim of a beneficial constructability activity. The present research aims to assess the current findings on CCAs in order to identify the types of contractors and projects which these CCAs are getting performed in and also the types of contracts is used in these CCAs. Finally it was found that there are some significant differences in amount of contractors’ involvement in CCAs among various considered independent variables. This study uses the former researches to help Malaysian construction stakeholders to find out the barriers of constructability implementation in building projects via giving more details on application of CCAs among different IVs.

Business Process Management (BPM) education in Australia : a critical review based on content analysis

Business Process Management (BPM) is a top priority in organisations and is rapidly proliferating as an emerging discipline in practice. However, the current studies show lack of appropriate BPM skilled professionals in the field and a dearth of opportunities to develop BPM expertise. This paper analyses the gap between available BPM-related education in Australia and required BPM capabilities. BPM courses offered by Australian universities and training institutions have been critically analysed and mapped against leading BPM capability frameworks to determine how well current BPM education and training offerings in Australia actually address the core capabilities required for BPM professionals. The outcomes reported here can be used by Australian universities and training institutions to better align and position their training materials to the BPM required capabilities. It could also be beneficial to individuals looking for a systematic and in-depth understanding of BPM capabilities and trainings.

Critical constructability activities in building projects

Fundamental studies on constructability issue done in United States, United Kingdom and Australia illustrate capability of this concept to affect overall objectives of construction projects. It can result in significant cost and time savings and improved final quality by consideration of construction contractors experiences during conceptual planning and design phases. As intensive as these studies are, they do not attempt to investigate importance of these activities in order to find each of their specific barriers separately. This research explores Constructability Activities (CAs) in all project phases separately based on amount of contractors involvement in each activity and also amount of gap that exists between target and actual effects of each activity on achieving the final objectives of building projects in Malaysia. It ends to development of Critical Constructability Activities (CCAs). This research is crucial to gaining a better understanding of CCAs which are caused based on contractors higher participation percentage and larger gaps between their target and actual effects on achieving the final aims of the project. This research highlights the need to overcome barriers of CAs implementation in building projects. This study recommends construction stakeholders to concentrate more on CCAs in order to achieve the overall objectives of the project much faster and easier.

Identifying critical sun-protective beliefs among Australian adults

We investigated critical beliefs to target in interventions aimed at improving sun-protective behaviours of Australian adults, a population at risk for skin cancer. Participants (N = 816) completed a Theory of Planned Behaviour belief-based questionnaire and a 1-week follow-up of sun-protective behaviour. A range of behavioural, normative and control beliefs correlated with sun-protective behaviour, with no and only minimal differences observed in correlations between beliefs and behaviour by gender and age, respectively. A range of key beliefs made independent contributions to behaviour; however, the behavioural belief about being less likely to tan (β = 0.09); normative belief about friends (β = 0.20); and control beliefs about forgetfulness (β = −0.14), inconvenience (β = −0.17), knowing I will be in the sun for a long time (β = 0.16) and more fashionable sun-protective clothing (β = 0.13) were significant critical beliefs guiding people’s sun-protective behaviour. Our study fills a gap in the literature by investigating an at-risk population for skin cancer and using an established theoretical framework to identify critical beliefs that guide Australian adults’ decisions to sun protect. Attention to these critical beliefs will assist health campaigns and interventions aimed at combating the increasing rates of skin cancer for adults.

Communication and the casualisation of nursing : a critical ethnography

The contemporary working environment is being rapidly reshaped by technological, industrial and political forces. Increased global competitiveness and an emphasis on productivity have led to the appearance of alternative methods of employment, such as part-time, casual and itinerant work, allowing greater flexibility. This allows for the development of a core permanent staff and the simultaneous utilisation of casual staff according to business needs. Flexible workers across industries are generally referred to as the non-standard workforce and full-time permanent workers as the standard workforce. Even though labour flexibility favours the employer, increased opportunity for flexible work has been embraced by women for many reasons, including the gender struggle for greater economic independence and social equality. Consequently, the largely female nursing industry, both nationally and internationally, has been caught up in this wave of change. This ageing workforce has been at the forefront of the push for flexibility with recent figures showing almost half the nursing workforce is employed in non-standard capacity. In part, this has allowed women to fulfil caring roles outside their work, to ease off nearing retirement and to supplement the family income. More significantly, however, flexibility has developed as an economic management initiative, as a strategy for cost constraint. The result has been the development of a dual workforce and as suggested by Pocock, Buchanan and Campbell (2004), associated deep-seated resentment and the marginalisation of part-time and casual workers by their full-time colleagues and managers. Additionally, as nursing currently faces serious recruitment and retention problems there is urgent need to understand the factors which are underlying present discontent in the nursing profession. There is an identified gap in nursing knowledge surrounding the issues relating to recruitment and retention. Communication involves speaking, listening, reading and writing and is an interactive process which is central to the lives of humans. Workplace communication refers to human interaction, information technology, and multimedia and print. It is the means to relationship building between workers, management, and their external environment and is critical to organisational effectiveness. Communication and language are integral to nursing performance (Hall, 2005), in twenty-four hour service however increasing fragmentation due to part-time and casual work in the nursing industry means that effective communication management has become increasingly difficult. More broadly it is known that disruption to communication systems impacts negatively on consumer outcomes. Because of this gap in understanding how nurses view their contemporary nursing world, an interpretative ethnographic study which progressed to a critical ethnographic study, based on the conceptual framework of constructionism and interpretativism was used. The study site was a division within an acute health care facility, and the relationship between increasing casualisation of the nursing workforce and the experiences of communication of standard and non-standard nurses was explored. For this study, full-time standard nurses were those employed to work in a specific unit for forty hours per week. Non-standard nurses were those employed part-time in specific units or those nurses employed to work as relief pool nurses for shift short falls where needed. Nurses employed by external agencies, but required to fill in for shifts at the facility were excluded from this research. This study involved an analysis of observational, interview and focus group data of standard and non-standard nurses within this facility. Three analytical findings - the organisation of nursing work; constructing the casual nurse as other; and the function of space, situate communication within a broader discussion about non-standard work and organisational culture. The study results suggest that a significant culture of marginalisation exists for nurses who work in a non-standard capacity and that this affects communication for nurses and has implications for the quality of patient care. The discussion draws on the seven elements of marginalisation described by Hall, Stephen and Melius (1994). The arguments propose that these elements underpin a culture which supports remnants of the historically gendered stereotype "the good nurse" and these cultural values contribute to practices and behaviour which marginalise all nurses, particularly those who work less than full-time. Gender inequality is argued to be at the heart of marginalising practices because of long standing subordination of nurses by the powerful medical profession, paralleling historical subordination of women in society. This has denied nurses adequate representation and voice in decision making. The new knowledge emanating from this study extends current knowledge of factors surrounding recruitment and retention and as such contributes to an understanding of the current and complex nursing environment.

A critical analysis of business process management education and alignment with industry demand : an Australian perspective

Business Process Management (BPM) is accepted globally as an organizational approach to enhance productivity and drive cost efficiencies. Studies confirm a shortage of BPM skilled professionals with limited opportunities to develop the required BPM expertise. This study investigates this gap starting from a critical analysis of BPM courses offered by Australian universities and training institutions. These courses were analyzed and mapped against a leading BPM capability framework to determine how well current BPM education and training offerings in Australia address the core capabilities required by BPM professionals globally. To determine the BPM skill-sets sought by industry, online recruitment advertisements were collated, analyzed, and mapped against this BPM capability framework. The outcomes provide a detailed overview on the alignment of available BPM education/training and industry demand. These insights are useful for BPM professionals and their employers to build awareness of the BPM capabilities required for a BPM mature organization. Universities and other training institutions will benefit from these results by understanding where demand is, where the gaps are, and what other BPM education providers are supplying. This structured comparison method could continue to provide a common ground for future discussion across university-industry boundaries and continuous alignment of their respective practices.

A critical appraisal of the relational management paradigm in an international setting: A future research agenda

Purpose In the mainstream relationship management literature, critical appraisal of the relationship paradigm in an international setting is virtually non-existent. The extant literature reveals a gap in terms of linking relationship management theories with international management. Furthermore, little research attention has been paid to synthesise the existing theories in a cohesive manner towards developing a theoretical paradigm in the interface of the importer-supplier relationship dyad. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to strengthen the theoretical grounds of relationship marketing in an international setting in an importer-exporter relationship context. Design/methodology/approach The paper follows a comprehensive review approach and applies the fundamental theory of trust and commitment to identify the relational factors. More precisely, the paper identifies and applies other relevant theories such as internationalisation process theory, resource-based theory of the firm, dependence theory and transaction cost theory in developing an innovative theoretical paradigm. Findings Based on the integration of extant theories, this paper proposes a new direction in the theoretical realm of the trust and commitment building process within an importer and supplier relationship management paradigm. The research concludes that trust and commitment are the focal factors within the international relational paradigm. Research limitations/implications The proposed research direction suggests an emerging framework integrating mainstream theoretical variables of trust and commitment in importer and foreign-supplier context. This novel framework has the potential for use in further research. Originality/value This paper advances a grounded theoretical exploration within an international management domain in the context of importers and foreign-suppliers.