Role of enhanced vector transmission of a new West Nile virus strain in an outbreak of equine disease in Australia in 2011

Background In 2011, a variant of West Nile virus Kunjin strain (WNVKUN) caused an unprecedented epidemic of neurological disease in horses in southeast Australia, resulting in almost 1,000 cases and a 9% fatality rate. We investigated whether increased fitness of the virus in the primary vector, Culex annulirostris, and another potential vector, Culex australicus, contributed to the widespread nature of the outbreak. Methods Mosquitoes were exposed to infectious blood meals containing either the virus strain responsible for the outbreak, designated WNVKUN2011, or WNVKUN2009, a strain of low virulence that is typical of historical strains of this virus. WNVKUN infection in mosquito samples was detected using a fixed cell culture enzyme immunoassay and a WNVKUN- specific monoclonal antibody. Probit analysis was used to determine mosquito susceptibility to infection. Infection, dissemination and transmission rates for selected days post-exposure were compared using Fisher’s exact test. Virus titers in bodies and saliva expectorates were compared using t-tests. Results There were few significant differences between the two virus strains in the susceptibility of Cx. annulirostris to infection, the kinetics of virus replication and the ability of this mosquito species to transmit either strain. Both strains were transmitted by Cx. annulirostris for the first time on day 5 post-exposure. The highest transmission rates (proportion of mosquitoes with virus detected in saliva) observed were 68% for WNVKUN2011 on day 12 and 72% for WNVKUN2009 on day 14. On days 12 and 14 post-exposure, significantly more WNVKUN2011 than WNVKUN2009 was expectorated by infected mosquitoes. Infection, dissemination and transmission rates of the two strains were not significantly different in Culex australicus. However, transmission rates and the amount of virus expectorated were significantly lower in Cx. australicus than Cx. annulirostris. Conclusions The higher amount of WNVKUN2011 expectorated by infected mosquitoes may be an indication that this virus strain is transmitted more efficiently by Cx. annulirostris compared to other WNVKUN strains. Combined with other factors, such as a convergence of abundant mosquito and wading bird populations, and mammalian and avian feeding behaviour by Cx. annulirostris, this may have contributed to the scale of the 2011 equine epidemic.

Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control

Mosquito-borne diseases pose some of the greatest challenges in public health, especially in tropical and sub-tropical regions of theworld. Efforts to control these diseases have been underpinned by a theoretical framework developed for malaria by Ross and Macdonald, including models, metrics for measuring transmission, and theory of control that identifies key vulnerabilities in the transmission cycle. That framework, especially Macdonald’s formula for R0 and its entomological derivative, vectorial capacity, are nowused to study dynamics and design interventions for many mosquito-borne diseases. A systematic review of 388 models published between 1970 and 2010 found that the vast majority adopted the Ross–Macdonald assumption of homogeneous transmission in a well-mixed population. Studies comparing models and data question these assumptions and point to the capacity to model heterogeneous, focal transmission as the most important but relatively unexplored component in current theory. Fine-scale heterogeneity causes transmission dynamics to be nonlinear, and poses problems for modeling, epidemiology and measurement. Novel mathematical approaches show how heterogeneity arises from the biology and the landscape on which the processes of mosquito biting and pathogen transmission unfold. Emerging theory focuses attention on the ecological and social context formosquito blood feeding, themovement of both hosts and mosquitoes, and the relevant spatial scales for measuring transmission and for modeling dynamics and control.

Rapid-response vaccines - does DNA offer a solution?

In responding to future influenza pandemics and other infectious agents, plasmid DNA overcomes many of the limitations of conventional vaccine production approaches.

A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010

Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross–Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross–Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross–Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.

Broad Bean Stain Virus: Identification, Detectability with ELISA in Faba Bean Leaves and Seeds, Occurrence in West Asia and North Africa and Possible Wild Hosts

Abstract During a survey of faba bean viruses in West Asia and North Africa a virus was identified as broad bean stain virus (BBSV) based on host reactions, electron microscopy, physical properties and serology. An antiserum to a Syrian isolate was prepared. With this antiserum both the direct double antibody sandwich ELISA (DAS-ELISA) and dot-ELISA were very sensitive in detecting BBSV in leaf extracts, ground whole seeds and germi nated embryos. Sens it i vity was not reduced when the two-day procedure was replaced by a one-day procedure. us i ng ELISA the vi rus was detected in 73 out of 589 faba bean samples with virus-like symptoms collected from Egypt (4 out of 70 samples tested), Lebanon (6/44) , Morocco (017), Sudan (19/254), Syria (36/145) and Tunisia (8/69). This is the first report of BBSV infection of faba bean in Lebanon, Sudan, Syria and Tunisia. speci es i ndi genous to Syri a were Fourteen wild legume susceptible to BBSV infection, with only two producing obvious symptoms. The virus was found to be seed transmitted ~n Vicia palaestina.

Situation Review of Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus in West Asia and North Africa

Symptoms of barley yellow dwarf (BYD) have been observed on cereals in nearly all countries of West Asia and North Africa. Its incidence. however, has varied during the last 15 years. Observations from field surveys are summarized. Since symptoms of barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV) are of low diagnostic value, especially in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), more precise qualitative and quantitative detection was derived by vector transmission and serology. In 1985 and 1986. preliminary surveys by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELlS A) indicated that BYDV incidence in the regions surveyed in Syria, Morocco, and Tunisia was around 7. 22. and 24%. respectively. By vector transmission PAV-, RPV-, and RMV-like isolates ofBYDV were identified in Morocco and the PAV-like isolate in Syria. By serology PAV-like isolates were identified in Ethiopia, Lebanon. Morocco. Syria. and Tunisia. and MA V-like isolates were identified from Morocco and Tunisia. The PAV-like type was the most common in all countries surveyed. Screening for BYDV resistance by natural infection has been carried out in a number of countries of the region during the last few years. Screening for resistance by aphid inoculation was initiated in Syria in 1986 at the International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA). Such screening is expected to follow in other countries of the region soon.

Broad Bean Mottle Virus: Identification, Serology, Host Range, and Occurrence on Faba Bean (Vicia Faba) in West Asia and Norm Africa

One of the faba bean viruses found in West Asia and North Africa was identified as broad bean mottle virus (BBMV) by host reactions, particle morphology and size, serology, and granular, often vesiculated cytoplasmic inclusions. Detailed research on four isolates, one each from Morocco, Tunisia, Sudan and Syria, provided new information on the virus. The isolates, though indistinguishable in ELISA or gel-diffusion tests, differed slightly in host range and symptoms. Twenty-one species (12 legumes and 9 non-legumes) out of 27 tested were systemically infected, and 14 of these by all four isolates. Infection in several species was symptomless, but major legumes such as chickpea, lentil and especially pea, suffered severely from infection. All 23 genotypes of faba bean, 2 of chickpea, 4 of lentil, 11 out of 21 of Phaseolus bean, and 16 out of 17 of pea were systemically sensitive to the virus. Twelve plant species were found to be new potential hosts and cucumber a new local-lesion test plant of the virus. BBMV particles occurred in faba bean plants in very high concentrations and seed transmission in this species (1.37%) was confirmed. An isolate from Syria was purified and two antisera were produced, one of which was used in ELISA to detect BBMV in faba bean field samples. Two hundred and three out of the 789 samples with symptoms suggestive of virus infection collected in 1985, 1986 and 1987, were found infected with BBMV: 4 out of 70 (4/70) tested samples from Egypt, 0/44 from Lebanon, 1/15 from Morocco, 46/254 from Sudan, 72/269 from Syria and 80/137 from Tunisia. This is the first report on its occurrence in Egypt, Syria and Tunisia. The virus is a potential threat to crop improvement in the region.

Rethinking regional green space networks in China

Ecological networks are often represented as utopian webs of green meandering through cities, across states, through regions and even across a country (Erickson, 2006, p.28; Fabos, 2004, p.326; Walmsley, 2006). While this may be an inspiring goal for some in developed countries, the reality may be somewhat different in developing countries. China, in its shift to urbanisation and suburbanisation, is also being persuaded to adjust its planning schemes according to these aspirational representations of green spaces (Yu et al, 2006, p.237; Zhang and Wang, 2006, p.455). The failure of other countries to achieve regional goals of natural and cultural heritage protection on the ground in this way (Peterson et al, 2007; Ryan et al, 2006; von Haaren and Reich, 2006) suggests that there may be flaws in the underpinning concepts that are widely circulated in North American and Western European literature (Jongman et al, 2004; Walmsley, 2006). In China, regional open space networks, regional green infrastructure or regional ecological corridors as we know them in the West, are also likely to be problematic, at least in the foreseeable future. Reasons supporting this view can be drawn from lessons learned from project experience in landscape planning and related fields of study in China and overseas. Implementation of valuable regional green space networks is problematic because: • the concept of region as a spatial unit for planning green space networks is ambiguous and undefinable for practical purposes; • regional green space networks traditionally require top down inter-governmental cooperation and coordination which are generally hampered by inequalities of influence between and within government agencies; • no coordinating body with funding powers exists for regional green space development and infrastructure authorities are still in transition from engineering authorities; • like other infrastructure projects, green space is likely to become a competitive rather than a complementary resource for city governments; • stable long-term management, maintenance and uses of green space networks must fit into a ‘family’ social structure rather than a ‘public good’ social structure, particularly as rural and urban property rights are being re-negotiated with city governments; and • green space provision is a performance indicator of urban improvement in cities within the city hierarchy and remains quantitatively-based (land area, tree number and per capita share) rather than qualitatively-based with local people as the focus.

Social enterprise and regional development : a pilot study

This preliminary study is an early attempt to explicitly explore the role of social enterprises in regional development. Focusing on North West Tasmania, an isolated and predominately rural region, this study examines three social enterprises based in the region and the nature of their social and economic impacts.

Diversity of dicotyledenous-infecting geminiviruses and their associated DNA molecules in Southern Africa, including the South-west Indian Ocean Islands

The family Geminiviridae comprises a group of plant-infecting circular ssDNA viruses that severely constrain agricultural production throughout the temperate regions of the world, and are a particularly serious threat to food security in sub-Saharan Africa. While geminiviruses exhibit considerable diversity in terms of their nucleotide sequences, genome structures, host ranges and insect vectors, the best characterised and economically most important of these viruses are those in the genus Begomovirus. Whereas begomoviruses are generally considered to be either monopartite (one ssDNA component) or bipartite (two circular ssDNA components called DNA-A and DNA-B), many apparently monopartite begomoviruses are associated with additional subviral ssDNA satellite components, called alpha- (DNA-αs) or betasatellites (DNA-βs). Additionally, subgenomic molecules, also known as defective interfering (DIs) DNAs that are usually derived from the parent helper virus through deletions of parts of its genome, are also associated with bipartite and monopartite begomoviruses. The past three decades have witnessed the emergence and diversification of various new begomoviral species and associated DI DNAs, in southern Africa, East Africa, and proximal Indian Ocean islands, which today threaten important vegetable and commercial crops such as, tobacco, cassava, tomato, sweet potato, and beans. This review aims to describe what is known about these viruses and their impacts on sustainable production in this sensitive region of the world. © 2012 by the authors licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.

Principle components analysis with covariance matrix on regional differences for mortality and percentages of cancers in Shandong province [山东省恶性肿瘤死亡率和构成比地区差异协方差矩阵主成分分析]

Objective To explore the characteristics of regional distribution of cancer deaths in Shandong Province with the principle components analysis. Methods The principle components analysis with co-variance matrix for age-adjusted mortality rates and percentages of 20 types of cancer in 22 counties （cities） were carried out using SAS Software. Results Over 90% of the total information could be reflected by the top 3 principle components and the first principle component alone represented more than half of the overall regional variances. The first component mainly reflected the area differences of esophageal cancer. The second component mainly reflected the area differences of lung cancer， stomach cancer and liver cancer. The value of the first principal component scores showed a clear trend that the west areas possessed higher values and the east the lower values. Based on the top two components，the 22 counties （cities） could be divided into several geographical clusters. Conclusion The overall difference of regional distribution of cancers in Shandong is dominated by several major cancers including esophageal cancer， lung cancer， stomach cancer and liver cancer. Among them，esophageal cancer makes the largest contribution. If the range of counties （cities） analyzed could be further widened， the characteristics of regional distribution of cancer mortality would be better examined. Abstract in Chinese 目的 利用主成分分析探讨山东省恶性肿瘤死亡的地区分布特征. 方法 利用SAS软件对山东省22个县市区2004～2006午的20种恶性肿瘤标化死亡率和构成比分别进行协方差矩阵主成分分析. 结果 前3个主成分就反映了总体差异90%以上的信息,其中仅第1主成分就提供了总体差异一半以上的信息.第1主成分主要反映了食管癌的地区差异,第2主成分主要反映肺癌的地区差异,兼顾胃癌和肝癌.各地区第1主成分得分呈现西高东低的趋势,根据第1和第2主成分可以将调查地区分为若干类别,表现为明显的地理聚集性. 结论 山东省各地区恶性肿瘤死亡的总体差异主要取决于少数高发肿瘤,包括食管癌、肺癌、胃癌、肝癌等,其中以食管癌地位最为突出.如能进一步扩大分析范围,可更好地查明恶性肿瘤死亡的地区特征.

Assessment of the severity of Ebola virus disease in Sierra Leone in 2014–2015

The current Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa is unprecedented in scale, and Sierra Leone is the most severely affected country. The case fatality risk (CFR) and hospitalization fatality risk (HFR) were used to characterize the severity of infections in confirmed and probable EVD cases in Sierra Leone. Proportional hazards regression models were used to investigate factors associated with the risk of death in EVD cases. In total, there were 17 318 EVD cases reported in Sierra Leone from 23 May 2014 to 31 January 2015. Of the probable and confirmed EVD cases with a reported final outcome, a total of 2536 deaths and 886 recoveries were reported. CFR and HFR estimates were 74·2% [95% credibility interval (CrI) 72·6–75·5] and 68·9% (95% CrI 66·2–71·6), respectively. Risks of death were higher in the youngest (0–4 years) and oldest (≥60 years) age groups, and in the calendar month of October 2014. Sex and occupational status did not significantly affect the mortality of EVD. The CFR and HFR estimates of EVD were very high in Sierra Leone.

Natural variation and Biogeography of the melon fruit fly, Zeugodacus cucurbitae (Diptera : Tephritidae), in Southeast-Asia and the west-pacific

This thesis used multidisciplinary approaches which greatly enhance our understanding of population structure and can be particularly powerful tools for resolving variation of melon fly over geographic and temporal scales, and for determining invasive pathways. The results from this thesis reinforce the value of integrating multiple data sets to better understand and resolve natural variation within an important pest to determine whether there are cryptic species, discrete lineages or host races, and to identify dispersal pathways in an invasive pest. These results are instructive for regional biosecurity, trade and quarantine, and provide important background for future area-wide management programmes. The integrative methodology adopted in this thesis is applicable to a variety of other insect pests.