A threshold analysis of dengue transmission in terms of weather variables and imported dengue cases in Australia

Dengue virus (DENV) transmission in Australia is driven by weather factors and imported dengue fever (DF) cases. However, uncertainty remains regarding the threshold effects of high-order interactions among weather factors and imported DF cases and the impact of these factors on autochthonous DF. A time-series regression tree model was used to assess the threshold effects of natural temporal variations of weekly weather factors and weekly imported DF cases in relation to incidence of weekly autochthonous DF from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009 in Townsville and Cairns, Australia. In Cairns, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence increased 16.3-fold when the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was <32 °C, the 4-week lagged moving average minimum temperature was ≥24 °C and the sum of imported DF cases in the previous 2 weeks was >0. When the 3-week lagged moving average maximum temperature was ≥32 °C and the other two conditions mentioned above remained the same, mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence only increased 4.6-fold. In Townsville, the mean weekly incidence of autochthonous DF increased 10-fold when 3-week lagged moving average rainfall was ≥27 mm, but it only increased 1.8-fold when rainfall was <27 mm during January to June. Thus, we found different responses of autochthonous DF incidence to weather factors and imported DF cases in Townsville and Cairns. Imported DF cases may also trigger and enhance local outbreaks under favorable climate conditions.

Defining the flammability of cylindrical metal rods through characterization of the thermal effects of the ignition promoter

All relevant international standards for determining if a metallic rod is flammable in oxygen utilize some form of “promoted ignition” test. In this test, for a given pressure, an overwhelming ignition source is coupled to the end of the test sample and the designation flammable or nonflammable is based upon the amount burned, that is, a burn criteria. It is documented that (1) the initial temperature of the test sample affects the burning of the test sample both (a) in regards to the pressure at which the sample will support burning (threshold pressure) and (b) the rate at which the sample is melted (regression rate of the melting interface); and, (2) the igniter used affects the test sample by heating it adjacent to the igniter as ignition occurs. Together, these facts make it necessary to ensure, if a metallic material is to be considered flammable at the conditions tested, that the burn criteria will exclude any region of the test sample that may have undergone preheating during the ignition process. A two-dimensional theoretical model was developed to describe the transient heat transfer occurring and resultant temperatures produced within this system. Several metals (copper, aluminum, iron, and stainless steel) and ignition promoters (magnesium, aluminum, and Pyrofuze®) were evaluated for a range of oxygen pressures between 0.69 MPa (100 psia) and 34.5 MPa (5,000 psia). A MATLAB® program was utilized to solve the developed model that was validated against (1) a published solution for a similar system and (2) against experimental data obtained during actual tests at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration White Sands Test Facility. The validated model successfully predicts temperatures within the test samples with agreement between model and experiment increasing as test pressure increases and/or distance from the promoter increases. Oxygen pressure and test sample thermal diffusivity were shown to have the largest effect on the results. In all cases evaluated, there is no significant preheating (above about 38°C/100°F) occurring at distances greater than 30 mm (1.18 in.) during the time the ignition source is attached to the test sample. This validates a distance of 30 mm (1.18 in.) above the ignition promoter as a burn length upon which a definition of flammable can be based for inclusion in relevant international standards (that is, burning past this length will always be independent of the ignition event for the ignition promoters considered here. KEYWORDS: promoted ignition, metal combustion, heat conduction, thin fin, promoted combustion, burn length, burn criteria, flammability, igniter effects, heat affected zone.

A novel nonrepudiable threshold multi-proxy multi-signature scheme with shared verification

Tzeng et al. proposed a new threshold multi-proxy multi-signature scheme with threshold verification. In their scheme, a subset of original signers authenticates a designated proxy group to sign on behalf of the original group. A message m has to be signed by a subset of proxy signers who can represent the proxy group. Then, the proxy signature is sent to the verifier group. A subset of verifiers in the verifier group can also represent the group to authenticate the proxy signature. Subsequently, there are two improved schemes to eliminate the security leak of Tzeng et al.’s scheme. In this paper, we have pointed out the security leakage of the three schemes and further proposed a novel threshold multi-proxy multi-signature scheme with threshold verification.

Elicitator : an expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology

Expert elicitation is the process of retrieving and quantifying expert knowledge in a particular domain. Such information is of particular value when the empirical data is expensive, limited, or unreliable. This paper describes a new software tool, called Elicitator, which assists in quantifying expert knowledge in a form suitable for use as a prior model in Bayesian regression. Potential environmental domains for applying this elicitation tool include habitat modeling, assessing detectability or eradication, ecological condition assessments, risk analysis, and quantifying inputs to complex models of ecological processes. The tool has been developed to be user-friendly, extensible, and facilitate consistent and repeatable elicitation of expert knowledge across these various domains. We demonstrate its application to elicitation for logistic regression in a geographically based ecological context. The underlying statistical methodology is also novel, utilizing an indirect elicitation approach to target expert knowledge on a case-by-case basis. For several elicitation sites (or cases), experts are asked simply to quantify their estimated ecological response (e.g. probability of presence), and its range of plausible values, after inspecting (habitat) covariates via GIS.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.