Alternative futures of globalisation a socio-ecological study of the world social forum process

Inspired by the initial World Social Forum in Porto Alegre Brazil, over the past decade over 200 local and regional social forums have been held, on five continents. This study has examined the nature of this broader social forum process, in particular as an aspect of the movement for 'another globalisation'. I discuss both the discourses for 'another world', as well as the development of an Alternative Globalisation Movement. As an action research study, the research took place within a variety of groups and networks. The thesis provides six accounts of groups and people striving and struggling for 'another world'. I provide a macro account of the invention and innovation of the World Social Forum. A grassroots film-makers collective provides a window into media. A local social forum opens up the radical diversity of actors. An activist exchange circle sheds light on strategic aspects of alternative globalisation. An educational initiative provides a window into transformations in pedagogy. And a situational account (of the G20 meeting in Melbourne in 2006) provides an overview of the variety of metanetworks that converge to voice demands for global justice and sustainability. In particular, this study has sought to shed light on how, within this process, groups and communities develop 'agency', a capacity to respond to the global challenges they / we face. And as part of this question, I have also explored how alternatives futures are developed and conceived, with a re-cognition of the importance of histories and geo-political (or 'eco-political') structures as contexts. I argue the World Social Forum Process is prefigurative, as an interactional process where many social alternatives are conceived, supported, developed and innovated into the world. And I argue this innovation process is meta-formative, where convergences of diverse actors comprise ‘social ecologies of alternatives’ which lead to opportunities for dynamic collaboration and partnership.

Impact of socio-ecological variability on the transmission of malaria in Yunnan Province, China

This thesis is a population-based epidemiological study to explore the spatial and temporal pattern of malaria, and to assess the relationship between socio-ecological factors and malaria in Yunnan, China. Geospatial and temporal approaches were applied; the high risk areas of the disease were identified; and socio-ecological drivers of malaria were assessed. These findings will provide important evidence for the control and prevention of malaria in China and other countries with a similar situation of endemic malaria.

Did socio-ecological factors drive the spatiotemporal patterns of pandemic influenza A (H1N1)?

BACKGROUND Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) has a significant public health impact. This study aimed to examine the effect of socio-ecological factors on the transmission of H1N1 in Brisbane, Australia. METHODOLOGY We obtained data from Queensland Health on numbers of laboratory-confirmed daily H1N1 in Brisbane by statistical local areas (SLA) in 2009. Data on weather and socio-economic index were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to quantify the relationship between variation of H1N1 and independent factors and to determine its spatiotemporal patterns. RESULTS Our results show that average increase in weekly H1N1 cases were 45.04% (95% credible interval (CrI): 42.63-47.43%) and 23.20% (95% CrI: 16.10-32.67%), for a 1 °C decrease in average weekly maximum temperature at a lag of one week and a 10mm decrease in average weekly rainfall at a lag of one week, respectively. An interactive effect between temperature and rainfall on H1N1 incidence was found (changes: 0.71%; 95% CrI: 0.48-0.98%). The auto-regression term was significantly associated with H1N1 transmission (changes: 2.5%; 95% CrI: 1.39-3.72). No significant association between socio-economic indexes for areas (SEIFA) and H1N1 was observed at SLA level. CONCLUSIONS Our results demonstrate that average weekly temperature at lag of one week and rainfall at lag of one week were substantially associated with H1N1 incidence at a SLA level. The ecological factors seemed to have played an important role in H1N1 transmission cycles in Brisbane, Australia.

The geographical co-distribution and socio-ecological drivers of childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea in Queensland, Australia

This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal patterns, geographic co-distribution, and socio-ecological drivers of childhood pneumonia and diarrhea in Queensland. A Bayesian conditional autoregressive model was used to quantify the impacts of socio-ecological factors on both childhood pneumonia and diarrhea at a postal area level. A distinct seasonality of childhood pneumonia and diarrhea was found. Childhood pneumonia and diarrhea mainly distributed in northwest of Queensland. Mount Isa was the high-risk cluster where childhood pneumonia and diarrhea co-distributed. Emergency department visits (EDVs) for pneumonia increased by 3% per 10-mm increase in monthly average rainfall, in wet seasons. In comparison, a 10-mm increase in monthly average rainfall may increase 4% of EDVs for diarrhea. Monthly average temperature was negatively associated with EDVs for childhood diarrhea, in wet seasons. Low socioeconomic index for areas (SEIFA) was associated with high EDVs for childhood pneumonia. Future pneumonia and diarrhea prevention and control measures in Queensland should focus more on Mount Isa.

Ecological aspects of biosecurity surveillance design for the detection of multiple invasive animal species

Complex surveillance problems are common in biosecurity, such as prioritizing detection among multiple invasive species, specifying risk over a heterogeneous landscape, combining multiple sources of surveillance data, designing for specified power to detect, resource management, and collateral effects on the environment. Moreover, when designing for multiple target species, inherent biological differences among species result in different ecological models underpinning the individual surveillance systems for each. Species are likely to have different habitat requirements, different introduction mechanisms and locations, require different methods of detection, have different levels of detectability, and vary in rates of movement and spread. Often there is a further challenge of a lack of knowledge, literature, or data, for any number of the above problems. Even so, governments and industry need to proceed with surveillance programs which aim to detect incursions in order to meet environmental, social and political requirements. We present an approach taken to meet these challenges in one comprehensive and statistically powerful surveillance design for non-indigenous terrestrial vertebrates on Barrow Island, a high conservation nature reserve off the Western Australian coast. Here, the possibility of incursions is increased due to construction and expanding industry on the island. The design, which includes mammals, amphibians and reptiles, provides a complete surveillance program for most potential terrestrial vertebrate invaders. Individual surveillance systems were developed for various potential invaders, and then integrated into an overall surveillance system which meets the above challenges using a statistical model and expert elicitation. We discuss the ecological basis for the design, the flexibility of the surveillance scheme, how it meets the above challenges, design limitations, and how it can be updated as data are collected as a basis for adaptive management.

Growing biodiverse carbon-rich forests

Regrowing forests on cleared land is a key strategy to achieve both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation globally. Maximizing these co-benefits, however, remains theoretically and technically challenging because of the complex relationship between carbon sequestration and biodiversity in forests, the strong influence of climate variability and landscape position on forest development, the large number of restoration strategies possible, and long time-frames needed to declare success. Through the synthesis of three decades of knowledge on forest dynamics and plant functional traits combined with decision science, we demonstrate that we cannot always maximize carbon sequestration by simply increasing the functional trait diversity of trees planted. The relationships between plant functional diversity, carbon sequestration rates above-ground and in the soil are dependent on climate and landscape positions. We show how to manage ‘identities’ and ‘complementarities’ between plant functional traits in order to achieve systematically maximal co-benefits in various climate and landscape contexts. We provide examples of optimal planting and thinning rules that satisfy this ecological strategy and guide the restoration of forests that are rich in both carbon and plant functional diversity. Our framework provides the first mechanistic approach for generating decision-making rules that can be used to manage forests for multiple objectives, and supports joined carbon credit and biodiversity conservation initiatives, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation REDD+. The decision framework can also be linked to species distribution models and socio-economic models in order to find restoration solutions that maximize simultaneously biodiversity, carbon stocks and other ecosystem services across landscapes. Our study provides the foundation for developing and testing cost-effective and adaptable forest management rules to achieve biodiversity, carbon sequestration and other socio-economic co-benefits under global change.

Applying the ecological model of behavior change to a physical activity trial in retirement communities : description of the study protocol

Objectives To describe the intervention protocol for the first multilevel ecological intervention for physical activity in retirement communities that addresses individual, interpersonal and community influences on behavior change. Design A cluster randomized controlled trial design was employed with two study arms: a physical activity intervention and an attention control successful aging condition. Setting Sixteen continuing care retirement communities in San Diego County. Participants Three hundred twenty older adults, aged 65 years and older, are being recruited to participate in the trial. In addition, peer leaders are being recruited to lead some study activities, especially to sustain the intervention after study activities ceased. Intervention Participants in the physical activity trial receive individual, interpersonal and community intervention components. The individual level components include pedometers, goal setting and individual phone counseling. The interpersonal level components include group education sessions and peer-led activities. The community level components include resource audits and enumeration, tailored walking maps, and community improvement projects. The successful aging group receives individual and group attention about successful aging topics. Measurements The main outcome is light to moderate physical activity, measured objectively by accelerometry. Other objective outcomes included physical functioning, blood pressure, physical fitness, and cognitive functioning. Self report measures include depressive symptoms and health related quality of life. Results The intervention is being delivered successfully in the communities and compliance rates are high. Conclusion Ecological Models call for interventions that address multiple levels of the model. Previous studies have not included components at each level and retirement communities provide a model environment to demonstrate how to implement such an intervention.

Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

Background Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. Results Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. Conclusions It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change. Keywords: Climate; Dengue; Models; Projection; Scenarios

Learning style and digital activity: An ecological study

In order to understand student engagement in higher education through the use of digital technologies, it is necessary to appreciate the broader use of differing technologies. Forty-eight first-year university students completed an online survey that queried patterns of digital activity across home, school and community contexts and that included rating scale items that measured learning style (i.e., active-reflective, sensing-intuitive, visual-verbal, sequential-global). Results suggest that students vary widely in digital activities and that such variation is related to differences in learning style. For example, active learners were more likely than reflective learners to engage in digital activities in the community and users of some specific application, as opposed to non-users, were more likely to be verbal than visual learners. Implications for instructional applications of digital technology in higher education are presented.

Farm it right : the sustainable farming simulation

Farm It Right is an innovative creative work that simulates sustainable farming techniques using ecological models prepared by academics at Bradford University (School of Life Sciences). This interactive work simulates the farming conditions and options of our ancestors and demonstrates the direct impact their actions had on their environment and on the ’future of their cultures’ (Schmidt 2008). Specifically, the simulation allows users to explore and experiment with the complex relationships between environmental factors and human decision making within the harsh conditions of an early (9th century) Nordic farm. The simulation interface displays both statistical and graphical feedback in response to the users selections regarding animal reproduction rates, shelter provisions, food supplies etc. as well as demonstrating resulting impacts to soil erosion, water supply, animal population sizes etc.---------- 'Farm It Right' is now used at Bradford University (School of Life Sciences) as a dynamic e-Learning resource for incorporating environmental archaeology with sustainable development education, improving the engagement with complex data and the appreciation of human impacts on the environment and the future of their cultures. 'Farm It Right' is also demonstrated as an exemplar case study for interaction design students at Queensland University of Technology.

The influence of habitat heterogeneity on patterns of connectivity among rabbit populations in southern Queensland

Patterns of connectivity among local populations influence the dynamics of regional systems, but most ecological models have concentrated on explaining the effect of connectivity on local population structure using dynamic processes covering short spatial and temporal scales. In this study, a model was developed in an extended spatial system to examine the hypothesis that long term connectivity levels among local populations are influenced by the spatial distribution of resources and other habitat factors. The habitat heterogeneity model was applied to local wild rabbit populations in the semi-arid Mitchell region of southern central Queensland (the Eastern system). Species' specific population parameters which were appropriate for the rabbit in this region were used. The model predicted a wide range of long term connectivity levels among sites, ranging from the extreme isolation of some sites to relatively high interaction probabilities for others. The validity of model assumptions was assessed by regressing model output against independent population genetic data, and explained over 80% of the variation in the highly structured genetic data set. Furthermore, the model was robust, explaining a significant proportion of the variation in the genetic data over a wide range of parameters. The performance of the habitat heterogeneity model was further assessed by simulating the widely reported recent range expansion of the wild rabbit into the Mitchell region from the adjacent, panmictic Western rabbit population system. The model explained well the independently determined genetic characteristics of the Eastern system at different hierarchic levels, from site specific differences (for example, fixation of a single allele in the population at one site), to differences between population systems (absence of an allele in the Eastern system which is present in all Western system sites). The model therefore explained the past and long term processes which have led to the formation and maintenance of the highly structured Eastern rabbit population system. Most animals exhibit sex biased dispersal which may influence long term connectivity levels among local populations, and thus the dynamics of regional systems. When appropriate sex specific dispersal characteristics were used, the habitat heterogeneity model predicted substantially different interaction patterns between female-only and combined male and female dispersal scenarios. In the latter case, model output was validated using data from a bi-parentally inherited genetic marker. Again, the model explained over 80% of the variation in the genetic data. The fact that such a large proportion of variability is explained in two genetic data sets provides very good evidence that habitat heterogeneity influences long term connectivity levels among local rabbit populations in the Mitchell region for both males and females. The habitat heterogeneity model thus provides a powerful approach for understanding the large scale processes that shape regional population systems in general. Therefore the model has the potential to be useful as a tool to aid in the management of those systems, whether it be for pest management or conservation purposes.

Spatio-temporal patterns of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Background Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is a common and wide-spread mosquito-borne disease in Australia. This study investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia using geographical information system (GIS) tools and geostatistical analysis. Methods/Principal Findings We calculated the incidence rates and standardised incidence rates of BFV disease. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidences. Spatial dynamics of BFV disease was examined using semi-variogram analysis. Interpolation techniques were applied to visualise and display the spatial distribution of BFV disease in statistical local areas (SLAs) throughout Queensland. Mapping of BFV disease by SLAs reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time. Statistically significant differences in BFV incidence rates were identified among age groups (χ2 = 7587, df = 7327,p<0.01). There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of BFV incidence for all four periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.1506 to 0.2901 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. Conclusions/Significance This is the first study to examine spatial and temporal variation in the incidence rates of BFV disease across Queensland using GIS and geostatistics. The BFV transmission varied with age and gender, which may be due to exposure rates or behavioural risk factors. There are differences in the spatio-temporal patterns of BFV disease which may be related to local socio-ecological and environmental factors. These research findings may have implications in the BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Evolving directions in health promotion workforce development

PROJECT CONTEXT: Leaders in the fields of public health and health promotion increasingly advocate a socio-ecological approach to meet contemporary and emerging population health challenges. It is essential that health promotion workforce development initiatives mirror the evolving direction of the field to facilitate translation of theory into practice. To date, there has been limited effort to map the socio-ecological approach into tertiary education curricula. PROJECT DESCRIPTION: This project was undertaken as part of the development process for an undergraduate health promotion degree in Queensland, Australia. A review of the health promotion workforce development literature was undertaken. Group processes, key informant interviews and a Delphi technique were used to engage health promotion academics and practitioners, including an International Health Promotion Expert Advisory Panel, and an Industry Advisory Group in defining the components of the program. FINDINGS: The consultative processes facilitated the development of an undergraduate health promotion degree program underpinned by the socio-ecological approach with strong emphases upon the processes or 'how you do it' of health promotion together with evidence-based decision making and practice. CONCLUSIONS: As the basis and practice of health promotion progresses toward a socio-ecological approach, workforce training needs to keep pace with these developments to ensure an appropriately skilled health promotion workforce to meet emerging population health challenges. The reported project and the degree program that has been developed is an example of one step towards achieving this important and necessary shift in health promotion workforce development in Australia.

Can social resilience inform SA/SIA for adaptive planning for climate change in vulnerable regions?

Social resilience concepts are gaining momentum in environmental planning through an emerging understanding of the socio-ecological nature of biophysical systems. There is a disconnect, however, between these concepts and the sociological and psychological literature related to social resilience. Further still, both schools of thought are not well connected to the concepts of social assessment (SA) and social impact assessment (SIA) that are the more standard tools supporting planning and decision-making. This raises questions as to how emerging social resilience concepts can translate into improved SA/SIA practices to inform regional-scale adaptation. Through a review of the literature, this paper suggests that more cross-disciplinary integration is needed if social resilience concepts are to have a genuine impact in helping vulnerable regions tackle climate change.

Transdisciplinary synthesis for ecosystem science, policy and management: The Australian experience

Mitigating the environmental effects of global population growth, climatic change and increasing socio-ecological complexity is a daunting challenge. To tackle this requires synthesis: the integration of disparate information to generate novel insights from heterogeneous, complex situations where there are diverse perspectives. Since 1995, a structured approach to inter-, multi- and trans-disciplinary1 collaboration around big science questions has been supported through synthesis centres around the world. These centres are finding an expanding role due to ever-accumulating data and the need for more and better opportunities to develop transdisciplinary and holistic approaches to solve real-world problems. The Australian Centre for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis (ACEAS ) has been the pioneering ecosystem science synthesis centre in the Southern Hemisphere. Such centres provide analysis and synthesis opportunities for time-pressed scientists, policy-makers and managers. They provide the scientific and organisational environs for virtual and face-to-face engagement, impetus for integration, data and methodological support, and innovative ways to deliver synthesis products. We detail the contribution, role and value of synthesis using ACEAS to exemplify the capacity for synthesis centres to facilitate trans-organisational, transdisciplinary synthesis. We compare ACEAS to other international synthesis centres, and describe how it facilitated project teams and its objective of linking natural resource science to policy to management. Scientists and managers were brought together to actively collaborate in multi-institutional, cross-sectoral and transdisciplinary research on contemporary ecological problems. The teams analysed, integrated and synthesised existing data to co-develop solution-oriented publications and management recommendations that might otherwise not have been produced. We identify key outcomes of some ACEAS working groups which used synthesis to tackle important ecosystem challenges. We also examine the barriers and enablers to synthesis, so that risks can be minimised and successful outcomes maximised. We argue that synthesis centres have a crucial role in developing, communicating and using synthetic transdisciplinary research.