A discussion of “Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events'' by Aaron Clauset and Ryan Woodard

The terrorist attacks in the United States on September 11, 2001 appeared to be a harbinger of increased terrorism and violence in the 21st century, bringing terrorism and political violence to the forefront of public discussion. Questions about these events abound, and “Estimating the Historical and Future Probabilities of Large Scale Terrorist Event” [Clauset and Woodard (2013)] asks specifically, “how rare are large scale terrorist events?” and, in general, encourages discussion on the role of quantitative methods in terrorism research and policy and decision-making. Answering the primary question raises two challenges. The first is identify- ing terrorist events. The second is finding a simple yet robust model for rare events that has good explanatory and predictive capabilities. The challenges of identifying terrorist events is acknowledged and addressed by reviewing and using data from two well-known and reputable sources: the Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism-RAND database (MIPT-RAND) [Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism] and the Global Terror- ism Database (GTD) [National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START) (2012), LaFree and Dugan (2007)]. Clauset and Woodard (2013) provide a detailed discussion of the limitations of the data and the models used, in the context of the larger issues surrounding terrorism and policy.

We’ve had the Redfern Park Speech and The Apology: What’s next?

What really changed for Australian Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people between Paul Keating’s Redfern Park Speech (Keating 1992) and Kevin Rudd’s Apology to the stolen generations (Rudd 2008)? What will change between the Apology and the next speech of an Australian Prime Minister? The two speeches were intricately linked, and they were both personal and political. But do they really signify change at the political level? This paper reflects my attempt to turn the gaze away from Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, and back to where the speeches originated: the Australian Labor Party (ALP). I question whether the changes foreshadowed in the two speeches – including changes by the Australian public and within Australian society – are evident in the internal mechanisms of the ALP. I also seek to understand why non-Indigenous women seem to have given in to the existing ways of the ALP instead of challenging the status quo which keeps Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples marginalised. I believe that, without a thorough examination and a change in the ALP’s practices, the domination and subjugation of Indigenous peoples will continue – within the Party, through the Australian political process and, therefore, through governments.

Rosser Park

Poem

Comparison of eight published lumbar spine finite element models

Due to its ability to represent intricate systems with material nonlinearities as well as irregular loading, boundary, geometrical and material domains, the finite element (FE) method has been recognized as an important computational tool in spinal biomechanics. Current FE models generally account for a single distinct spinal geometry with one set of material properties despite inherently large inter-subject variability. The uncertainty and high variability in tissue material properties, geometry, loading and boundary conditions has cast doubt on the reliability of their predictions and comparability with reported in vitro and in vivo values. A multicenter study was undertaken to compare the results of eight well-established models of the lumbar spine that have been developed, validated and applied for many years. Models were subjected to pure and combined loading modes and their predictions were compared to in vitro and in vivo measurements for intervertebral rotations, disc pressures and facet joint forces. Under pure moment loading, the predicted L1-5 rotations of almost all models fell within the reported in vitro ranges; their median values differed on average by only 2° for flexion-extension, 1° for lateral bending and 5° for axial rotation. Predicted median facet joint forces and disc pressures were also in good agreement with previously published median in vitro values. However, the ranges of predictions were larger and exceeded the in vitro ranges, especially for facet joint forces. For all combined loading modes, except for flexion, predicted median segmental intervertebral rotations and disc pressures were in good agreement with in vivo values. The simulations yielded median facet joint forces of 0 N in flexion, 38 N in extension, 14 N in lateral bending and 60 N in axial rotation that could not be validated due to the paucity of in vivo facet joint forces. In light of high inter-subject variability, one must be cautious when generalizing predictions obtained from one deterministic model. This study demonstrates however that the predictive power increases when FE models are combined together. The median of individual numerical results can hence be used as an improved tool in order to estimate the response of the lumbar spine.

Parallax in the park

This article describes a parallax experiment performed by undergraduate physics students at Queensland University of Technology. The experiment is analogous to the parallax method used in astronomy to measure distances to the local stars. The result of one of these experiments is presented in this paper. A target was photographed using a digital camera at five distances between 3 and 8 metres from two vantage points spaced 0.6 m apart. The parallax distances were compared with the actual distance measured using a tape measure and the average error was 0.5 ± 0.9 %.

Using an ‘interpretative model’ for contextual design of heritage landscape databases: The case of St Helena Island National Park in Queensland, Australia

Due to the increasing speed of landscape changes and the massive development of computer technologies, the methods of representing heritage landscapes using digital tools have become a worldwide concern in conservation research. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how an ‘interpretative model’ can be used for contextual design of heritage landscape information systems. This approach is explored through building a geographic information system database for St Helena Island national park in Moreton Bay, South East Queensland, Australia. Stakeholders' interpretations of this landscape were collected through interviews, and then used as a framework for designing the database. The designed database is a digital inventory providing contextual descriptions of the historic infrastructure remnants on St Helena Island. It also reveals the priorities of different sites in terms of historic research, landscape restoration, and tourism development. Additionally, this database produces thematic maps of the intangible heritage values, which could be used for landscape interpretation. This approach is different from the existing methods because building a heritage information system is deemed as an interpretative activity, rather than a value-free replication of the physical environment. This approach also shows how a cultural landscape methodology can be used to create a flexible information system for heritage conservation. The conclusion is that an ‘interpretative model’ of database design facilitates a more explicit focus on information support, and is a potentially effective approach to user-centred design of geographic information systems.

An Efficient and Verifiable Solution to the Millionaire Problem

A new solution to the millionaire problem is designed on the base of two new techniques: zero test and batch equation. Zero test is a technique used to test whether one or more ciphertext contains a zero without revealing other information. Batch equation is a technique used to test equality of multiple integers. Combination of these two techniques produces the only known solution to the millionaire problem that is correct, private, publicly verifiable and efficient at the same time.

Response and damage evaluation of reinforced concrete frames subjected to blast loading

Bomb attacks carried out by terrorists, targeting high occupancy buildings, have become increasingly common in recent times. Large numbers of casualties and property damage result from overpressure of the blast followed by failing of structural elements. Understanding the blast response of multi-storey buildings and evaluating their remaining life have therefore become important. Response and damage analysis of single structural components, such as columns or slabs, to explosive loads have been examined in the literature, but the studies on blast response and damage analysis of structural frames in multi-storey buildings is limited and this is necessary for assessing the vulnerability of them. This paper investigates the blast response and damage evaluation of reinforced concrete (RC) frames, designed for normal gravity loads, in order to evaluate their remaining life. Numerical modelling and analysis were carried out using the explicit finite element software, LS DYNA. The modelling and analysis takes into consideration reinforcement details together and material performance under higher strain rates. Damage indices for columns are calculated based on their residual and original capacities. Numerical results generated in the can be used to identify relationships between the blast load parameters and the column damage. Damage index curve will provide a simple means for assessing the damage to a typical multi-storey building RC frame under an external bomb circumstance.