Queensland Government’s people’s question time : the challenges and opportunities of population growth in Queensland

As AITPM National President, I was invited by Queensland’s Premier, Hon. Anna Bligh MP, as an audience guest to People’s Question Time on Wednesday 24 March 2010, which focused on ‘The Challenges and Opportunities of Population Growth in Queensland’. On the panel were: Premier and Minister for the Arts, Anna Bligh; Minister for Climate Change and Sustainability, Kate Jones; Minister for Infrastructure and Planning, Stirling Hinchliffe; Michael Rayner – Growth Management Summit Advisory Panel, Principal Director, Cox Rayner Architects; and Greg Hallam – Executive Director, Local Government Association of Queensland. The moderator for this session was Law Academic Erin O’Brien, of Queensland University of Technology.

Resilience of water supply systems in meeting the challenges posed by climate change and population growth

This research project provides a scientifically robust approach for assessing the resilience of water supply systems, which are critical infrastructure, to impacts of climate change and population growth. An approach for the identification of trigger points that allows timely and appropriate management actions to be taken to avoid catastrophic system failure is an important outcome of this project. In the current absence of a formal method to evaluate the resilience of a water supply system, the approach developed in this study was based on the characterisation of resilience of a water supply system to a range of surrogate measures. Accordingly, a set of indicators are proposed to evaluate system behaviour and logistic regression analysis was used to assess system behaviour under predicted rainfall, storage and demand conditions.

Projecting excess emergency department visits and associated costs in Brisbane, Australia, under population growth and climate change scenarios

The direct and indirect health effects of increasingly warmer temperatures are likely to further burden the already overcrowded hospital emergency departments (EDs). Using current trends and estimates in conjunction with future population growth and climate change scenarios, we show that the increased number of hot days in the future can have a considerable impact on EDs, adding to their workload and costs. The excess number of visits in 2030 is projected to range between 98–336 and 42–127 for younger and older groups, respectively. The excess costs in 2012–13 prices are estimated to range between AU$51,000–184,000 (0–64) and AU$27,000–84,000 (65+). By 2060, these estimates will increase to 229–2300 and 145–1188 at a cost of between AU$120,000–1,200,000 and AU$96,000–786,000 for the respective age groups. Improvements in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to generate synergistic health co-benefits and reduce the impact on frontline health services.

Urban growth management for sustainable urbanization : examples from Asia-Pacific city regions

During the past three decades cities in the Asia-Pacific region have undergone massive transformations, characterised by rapid population growth and urbanisation. The rapid pace of globalisation and economic restructuring has resulted in these cities receiving the full impact of urbanisation pressures. In attempting to ease these pressures, major cities have advocated growth management approaches that give particular interest to sustainable urbanization and emphasise compact and optimum development of urban forms. This paper seeks to provide an insight into sustainable urbanisation practice, particularly on the promotion of compact urbanisation within Asia-Pacific’s fastest growing regions. The finding shows that within the context of resource constraints, sustainable urbanisation has been a key factor in the adoption of urban growth management initiatives promoting viable use of scarce resources for urban expansion.

Assessing population limits : a carrying capacity approach to planning

While purporting to enhance Australia’s sustainability, the federal government’s Population Strategy rejects the assessment of the limiting factors to future population growth, thus avoiding urgent threshold issues such as resource depletion and environmental destruction. A more forward-thinking and whole-system perspective would assess and incorporate critical biophysical limits into governance processes with suitable prioritisation. It would encourage communities to examine their individual and collective responsibilities in the context of these limits in order to most equitably optimise outcomes; and it would employ both a resource-based examination of minimum population requirements, and an impact-based assessment of maximum thresholds. This carrying capacity approach to planning could help guide society towards a more sustainable future.

Energy and population policies in Australia

The Australian Government is about to release Australia’s first sustainable population policy. Sustainable population growth, among other things, implies sustainable energy demand. Current modelling of future energy demand both in Australia and by agencies such as the International Energy Agency sees population growth as one of the key drivers of energy demand. Simply increasing the demand for energy in response to population policy is sustainable only if there is a radical restructuring of the energy system away from energy sources associated with environmental degradation towards one more reliant on renewable fuels and less reliant on fossil fuels. Energy policy can also address the present nexus between energy consumption per person and population growth through an aggressive energy efficiency policy. The paper considers the link between population policies and energy policies and considers how the overall goal of sustainability can be achieved. The methods applied in this analysis draw on the literature of sustainable development to develop elements of an energy planning framework to support a sustainable population policy. Rather than simply accept that energy demand is a function of population increase moderated by an assumed rate of energy efficiency improvement, the focus is on considering what rate of energy efficiency improvement is necessary to significantly reduce the standard connections between population growth and growth in energy demand and what policies are necessary to achieve this situation. Energy efficiency policies can only moderate unsustainable aspects of energy demand and other policies are essential to restructure existing energy systems into on-going sustainable forms. Policies to achieve these objectives are considered. This analysis shows that energy policy, population policy and sustainable development policies are closely integrated. Present policy and planning agencies do not reflect this integration and energy and population policies in Australia have largely developed independently and whether the outcome is sustainable is largely a matter of chance. A genuinely sustainable population policy recognises the inter-dependence between population and energy policies and it is essential that this is reflected in integrated policy and planning agencies

Energy and population policies in Australia

The Australian Government is about to release Australia’s first sustainable population policy. Sustainable population growth, among other things, implies sustainable energy demand. Current modelling of future energy demand both in Australia and by agencies such as the International Energy Agency sees population growth as one of the key drivers of energy demand. Simply increasing the demand for energy in response to population policy is sustainable only if there is a radical restructuring of the energy system away from energy sources associated with environmental degradation towards one more reliant on renewable fuels and less reliant on fossil fuels. Energy policy can also address the present nexus between energy consumption per person and population growth through an aggressive energy efficiency policy. The paper considers the link between population policies and energy policies and considers how the overall goal of sustainability can be achieved. The methods applied in this analysis draw on the literature of sustainable development to develop elements of an energy planning framework to support a sustainable population policy. Rather than simply accept that energy demand is a function of population increase moderated by an assumed rate of energy efficiency improvement, the focus is on considering what rate of energy efficiency improvement is necessary to significantly reduce the standard connections between population growth and growth in energy demand and what policies are necessary to achieve this situation. Energy efficiency policies can only moderate unsustainable aspects of energy demand and other policies are essential to restructure existing energy systems into on-going sustainable forms. Policies to achieve these objectives are considered. This analysis shows that energy policy, population policy and sustainable development policies are closely integrated. Present policy and planning agencies do not reflect this integration and energy and population policies in Australia have largely developed independently and whether the outcome is sustainable is largely a matter of chance. A genuinely sustainable population policy recognises the inter-dependence between population and energy policies and it is essential that this is reflected in integrated policy and planning agencies

Did Brisbane grow smartly? Drivers of city growth 1991-2001 and lessons for current policies

Urban areas are growing unsustainably around the world; however, the growth patterns and their associated drivers vary between contexts. As a result, research has highlighted the need to adopt case study based approaches to stimulate the development of new theoretic understandings. Using land-cover data sets derived from Landsat images (30 m × 30 m), this research identifies both patterns and drivers of urban growth in a period (1991-2001) when a number of policy acts were enacted aimed at fostering smart growth in Brisbane, Australia. A linear multiple regression model was estimated using the proportion of lands that were converted from non-built-up (1991) to built-up usage (2001) within a suburb as a dependent variable to identify significant drivers of land-cover changes. In addition, the hot spot analysis was conducted to identify spatial biases of land-cover changes, if any. Results show that the built-up areas increased by 1.34% every year. About 19.56% of the non-built-up lands in 1991 were converted into built-up lands in 2001. This conversion pattern was significantly biased in the northernmost and southernmost suburbs in the city. This is due to the fact that, as evident from the regression analysis, these suburbs experienced a higher rate of population growth, and had the availability of habitable green field sites in relatively flat lands. The above findings suggest that the policy interventions undertaken between the periods were not as effective in promoting sustainable changes in the environment as they were aimed for.

Mainstreaming biophilic urbanism in Australian cities : a response to climate change, resource shortages and population pressures

This thesis explored how biophilic urbanism, or the integration of natural features into increasingly dense urban environments, has become mainstream in cities around the world. Fourteen factors uncovered through a case study investigation provide insight for decision makers and change agents in Australia to use biophilic urbanism to address impacts of population growth, climate change and resource shortages. The thesis uses an inductive research approach to explore how barriers to the integration of multi-functional vegetated and water design elements into the built environment, such that these become and standard inclusions in urban design and development processes.

5-year Chlamydia vaccination programme could reverse disease-related koala population decline: Predictions from a mathematical model using field data

BACKGROUND Many koala populations around Australia are in serious decline, with a substantial component of this decline in some Southeast Queensland populations attributed to the impact of Chlamydia. A Chlamydia vaccine for koalas is in development and has shown promise in early trials. This study contributes to implementation preparedness by simulating vaccination strategies designed to reverse population decline and by identifying which age and sex category it would be most effective to target. METHODS We used field data to inform the development and parameterisation of an individual-based stochastic simulation model of a koala population endemic with Chlamydia. The model took into account transmission, morbidity and mortality caused by Chlamydia infections. We calibrated the model to characteristics of typical Southeast Queensland koala populations. As there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the vaccine in real-world settings, a variety of potential vaccine efficacies, half-lives and dosing schedules were simulated. RESULTS Assuming other threats remain constant, it is expected that current population declines could be reversed in around 5-6 years if female koalas aged 1-2 years are targeted, average vaccine protective efficacy is 75%, and vaccine coverage is around 10% per year. At lower vaccine efficacies the immunological effects of boosting become important: at 45% vaccine efficacy population decline is predicted to reverse in 6 years under optimistic boosting assumptions but in 9 years under pessimistic boosting assumptions. Terminating a successful vaccination programme at 5 years would lead to a rise in Chlamydia prevalence towards pre-vaccination levels. CONCLUSION For a range of vaccine efficacy levels it is projected that population decline due to endemic Chlamydia can be reversed under realistic dosing schedules, potentially in just 5 years. However, a vaccination programme might need to continue indefinitely in order to maintain Chlamydia prevalence at a sufficiently low level for population growth to continue.

Promoting sustainable urban development in fast growing city-regions : practices from Kuala Lumpur and Hong Kong

The Asia‐Pacific region is characterised by rapid population growth and urbanisation. These trends often result in an increasing consumption of land, which in turn lead to spatially expansive and discontinuous urban development. As a consequence, local communities and the environment face strong pressures. Many cities in the region have developed policies to tackle the issue of rapid growth and its associated consequences, for example climate change. The broad aim of this paper is to identify the nature, trends and strategies of growth management in major Asia‐Pacific city‐regions, and their implications for natural resource management and infrastructure provision. More specifically, this research seeks to provide insights on sustainable urban development practice, particularly on the promotion of compact urbanisation within the Asia‐Pacific’s fastest growing regions. The methodology of the paper includes a detailed literature review and a comparative analysis of existing strategies and policies. The literature review focuses on the key concepts related to sustainable urban growth management. It also includes existing applications of urban growth management approaches and planning information system in managing growth. Following the literature review, the paper undertakes a comparative analysis of the strategies of major Asia‐Pacific city‐regions of Kuala Lumpur and Hong Kong in terms of their approaches to sustainable urban development. The findings of the paper provide a clear understanding of the necessity of sustainable urban development practices. It contributes to the development of a substantial base for further research. Ultimately, this research aims to shed light on sustainable urban development by providing insights on the management of growth, natural resources and urban infrastructures.

Submission to Brisbane City Council : Draft Brisbane Economic Development Plan

As with any strategic planning process, evidence-based estimates are needed to plan effectively for the future. Comments below are based upon data drawn from the Brisbane Long Term Infrastructure Plan (Department of Local Government, Planning, Sport and Recreation, 2005) and the Brisbane Long Term Planning Economic Indicators (National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, 2005), as these are cited as the underpinning research for the economic plan. This submission focuses on one critical aspect of the strategic plan — the relationship between population growth, employment growth, and infrastructure provision. While the focus of the strategic plan is on the changes which would occur within Brisbane, it is important that consideration of predicted changes in surrounding local government areas be also carried out.

Waterfront Development for Residential Property in Malaysia

Rivers and water are valuable natural resources for human life, environment and national development. Recognition of water resources as national heritage will contribute towards more long term sustainable property development. Waterfront development is already a well-established phenomenon internationally. In Malaysia, as the economy began to change in 1980s, so did the land uses along many of the river and waterfront locations. The pressures of new technology coupled with an urban population growth and urbanization began to force a transition from water dependent industry to a variety of non-water dependent developments such as apartments, offices, and retail shopping areas. Residential waterfront development has taken advantage of available land and water amenities and incorporated as a feature or “selling point” of the development. It has been found that wide views of water add an average of 59% to the value of waterfront property, as well as providing attractive landscaping and better property neighborhoods respectively. Development of waterfront lands in Malaysia occurred with limited federal, state, or municipal planning guidance; resulting in cost aspects like flooding and pollution. Although some waterfront development projects continue to remain profitable with a maintained successful public access component, many have not. This paper provides a brief introduction to the research project to address this issue, which is currently on-going.

How does ambulance service utilisation impact demand for Emergency Departments in Queensland, Australia?

Background: There are indications that pre-hospital emergency care and management of patients can help reduce the demand for hospital emergency departments (EDs). Ambulance services play a significant role at this stage of care. In 2003, the Queensland Government introduced a Community Ambulance Cover (CAC) levy in return for a free ambulance service at the point of access to all Queenslanders. This may have led to the impression in consumers of an entitlement to free ambulance services under any circumstances regardless of the urgency of the matter which may have in turn contributed to the crowding of EDs in Queensland. Objectives: This paper aims to answer the following questions: - How many patients arrive at hospital EDs by ambulance in Queensland, compared to other modes of arrival? - How has this changed over time, particularly after the CAC introduction in 2003? What percentage of ambulance arrivals are urgent ED patients? - Has the perceived free ambulance services created extra demand for EDs in Queensland, compared with other Australian jurisdictions that charge patients for ambulance services? Methods: We will secondary analyse the data from sources such as Queensland Ambulance Services, Department of Health and Australian Bureau of Statistics to answer the research questions. Findings and Conclusions Queensland has the highest utilization rate of ambulance services (about 18% in 2007-08) and the highest annual growth rate in demand for these services (7.7% on average since 2000-01), well above the population growth. On the other hand, the proportion of ED patients arriving by ambulance in Queensland has increased by about 4% annually. However, when compared with other states and territories with charge at the point of access, it seems that the growth in demand for EDs cannot be explained solely or mainly by CAC or ambulance utilisation in Queensland.