Inferring lung cancer risk factor patterns through joint Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis

Background: Preventing risk factor exposure is vital to reduce the high burden from lung cancer. The leading risk factor for developing lung cancer is tobacco smoking. In Australia, despite apparent success in reducing smoking prevalence, there is limited information on small area patterns and small area temporal trends. We sought to estimate spatio-temporal patterns for lung cancer risk factors using routinely collected population-based cancer data. Methods: The analysis used a Bayesian shared component spatio-temporal model, with male and female lung cancer included separately. The shared component reflected exposure to lung cancer risk factors, and was modelled over 477 statistical local areas (SLAs) and 15 years in Queensland, Australia. Analyses were also run adjusting for area-level socioeconomic disadvantage, Indigenous population composition, or remoteness. Results: Strong spatial patterns were observed in the underlying risk factor exposure for both males (median Relative Risk (RR) across SLAs compared to the Queensland average ranged from 0.48-2.00) and females (median RR range across SLAs 0.53-1.80), with high exposure observed in many remote areas. Strong temporal trends were also observed. Males showed a decrease in the underlying risk across time, while females showed an increase followed by a decrease in the final two years. These patterns were largely consistent across each SLA. The high underlying risk estimates observed among disadvantaged, remote and indigenous areas decreased after adjustment, particularly among females. Conclusion: The modelled underlying exposure appeared to reflect previous smoking prevalence, with a lag period of around 30 years, consistent with the time taken to develop lung cancer. The consistent temporal trends in lung cancer risk factors across small areas support the hypothesis that past interventions have been equally effective across the state. However, this also means that spatial inequalities have remained unaddressed, highlighting the potential for future interventions, particularly among remote areas.

Planning neighbourhoods for all ages and abilities: A multi-generational perspective

Taking a more integrated approach to planning our neighbourhoods for the continuum of inhabitants’ ages and abilities makes sense given our current and future population composition. Seldom are the built environment requirements of diverse groups (e.g. children, seniors, and people with disability) synthesised, resulting in often unfriendly and exclusionary neighbourhoods. This often means people experience barriers or restriction on their freedom to move about and interact within their neighbourhood. Applying universal design to neighbourhoods may provide a bridging link. By presenting two cases from South-East Queensland (SEQ), Australia, through the lenses of different ages and abilities - older children with physical disabilities and their families (Stafford 2013, 2014) and seniors (Baldwin et al. 2012), we intend to increase recognition of users' needs and stimulate the translation of knowledge to the practice of planning inclusive neighbourhoods.

Middle-aged and elderly Finnish households considering moving, their preferences, and potential downsizing amidst changing life course and housing careers

We examine the moving and housing preferences of middle-aged and older in Finland, a country where population composition and movement through the life course are changing. A logistic regression reveals that middle-aged, moderate income residents, renters, those who have lived in their houses only a short time, and residents who are generally dissatisfied are most likely to consider moving. Downsizing appeals to residents with lower incomes who live alone, and who have been in their current houses longer. All potential movers agree on the importance of transportation access and a neighborhood grocery store; however, those preferring to downsize are also interested in house and neighborhood design as well as services that will allow aging in place. Income limitations may create affordability problems for some potential movers.

Genetic Composition and Complexity of Virus Populations at Tungro-Endemic and Outbreak Rice Sites

We have recently demonstrated the geographic isolation of rice tungro bacilliform virus (RTBV) populations in the tungro-endemic provinces of Isabela and North Cotabato, Philippines. In this study, we examined the genetic structure of the virus populations at the tungro-outbreak sites of Lanao del Norte, a province adjacent to North Cotabato. We also analyzed the virus populations at the tungro-endemic sites of Subang, Indonesia, and Dien Khanh, Vietnam. Total DNA extracts from 274 isolates were digested with EcoRV restriction enzyme and hybridized with a full-length probe of RTBV. In the total population, 22 EcoRV-restricted genome profiles (genotypes) were identified. Although overlapping genotypes could be observed, the outbreak sites of Lanao del Norte had a genotype combination distinct from that of Subang or Dien Khanh but a genotype combination similar to that identified earlier from North Cotabato, the adjacent endemic province. Sequence analysis of the intergenic region and part of the ORF1 RTBV genome from randomly selected genotypes confirms the geographic clustering of RTBV genotypes and, combined with restriction analysis, the results suggest a fragmented spatial distribution of RTBV local populations in the three countries. Because RTBV depends on rice tungro spherical virus (RTSV) for transmission, the population dynamics of both tungro viruses were then examined at the endemic and outbreak sites within the Philippines. The RTBV genotypes and the coat protein RTSV genotypes were used as indicators for virus diversity. A shift in population structure of both viruses was observed at the outbreak sites with a reduced RTBV but increased RTSV gene diversity

Nutritional status of Ugandan women living with HIV/AIDS : anthropometry and body composition assessment

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that leads to acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDs) reduces immune function, resulting in opportunistic infections and later death. Use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) increases chances of survival, however, with some concerns regarding fat re-distribution (lipodystrophy) which may encompass subcutaneous fat loss (lipoatrophy) and/or fat accumulation (lipohypertrophy), in the same individual. This problem has been linked to Antiretroviral drugs (ARVs), majorly, in the class of protease inhibitors (PIs), in addition to older age and being female. An additional concern is that the problem exists together with the metabolic syndrome, even when nutritional status/ body composition, and lipodystrophy/metabolic syndrome are unclear in Uganda where the use of ARVs is on the increase. In line with the literature, the overall aim of the study was to assess physical characteristics of HIV-infected patients using a comprehensive anthropometric protocol and to predict body composition based on these measurements and other standardised techniques. The other aim was to establish the existence of lipodystrophy, the metabolic syndrome, andassociated risk factors. Thus, three studies were conducted on 211 (88 ART-naïve) HIV-infected, 15-49 year-old women, using a cross-sectional approach, together with a qualitative study of secondary information on patient HIV and medication status. In addition, face-to-face interviews were used to extract information concerning morphological experiences and life style. The study revealed that participants were on average 34.1±7.65 years old, had lived 4.63±4.78 years with HIV infection and had spent 2.8±1.9 years receiving ARVs. Only 8.1% of participants were receiving PIs and 26% of those receiving ART had ever changed drug regimen, 15.5% of whom changed drugs due to lipodystrophy. Study 1 hypothesised that the mean nutritional status and predicted percent body fat values of study participants was within acceptable ranges; different for participants receiving ARVs and the HIV-infected ART-naïve participants and that percent body fat estimated by anthropometric measures (BMI and skinfold thickness) and the BIA technique was not different from that predicted by the deuterium oxide dilution technique. Using the Body Mass Index (BMI), 7.1% of patients were underweight (<18.5 kg/m2) and 46.4% were overweight/obese (≥25.0 kg/m2). Based on waist circumference (WC), approximately 40% of the cohort was characterized as centrally obese. Moreover, the deuterium dilution technique showed that there was no between-group difference in the total body water (TBW), fat mass (FM) and fat-free mass (FFM). However, the technique was the only approach to predict a between-group difference in percent body fat (p = .045), but, with a very small effect (0.021). Older age (β = 0.430, se = 0.089, p = .000), time spent receiving ARVs (β = 0.972, se = 0.089, p = .006), time with the infection (β = 0.551, se = 0.089, p = .000) and receiving ARVs (β = 2.940, se = 1.441, p = .043) were independently associated with percent body fat. Older age was the greatest single predictor of body fat. Furthermore, BMI gave better information than weight alone could; in that, mean percentage body fat per unit BMI (N = 192) was significantly higher in patients receiving treatment (1.11±0.31) vs. the exposed group (0.99±0.38, p = .025). For the assessment of obesity, percent fat measures did not greatly alter the accuracy of BMI as a measure for classifying individuals into the broad categories of underweight, normal and overweight. Briefly, Study 1 revealed that there were more overweight/obese participants than in the general Ugandan population, the problem was associated with ART status and that BMI broader classification categories were maintained when compared with the gold standard technique. Study 2 hypothesized that the presence of lipodystrophy in participants receiving ARVs was not different from that of HIV-infected ART-naïve participants. Results showed that 112 (53.1%) patients had experienced at least one morphological alteration including lipohypertrophy (7.6%), lipoatrophy (10.9%), and mixed alterations (34.6%). The majority of these subjects (90%) were receiving ARVs; in fact, all patients receiving PIs reported lipodystrophy. Period spent receiving ARVs (t209 = 6.739, p = .000), being on ART (χ2 = 94.482, p = .000), receiving PIs (Fisher’s exact χ2 = 113.591, p = .000), recent T4 count (CD4 counts) (t207 = 3.694, p = .000), time with HIV (t125 = 1.915, p = .045), as well as older age (t209 = 2.013, p = .045) were independently associated with lipodystrophy. Receiving ARVs was the greatest predictor of lipodystrophy (p = .000). In other analysis, aside from skinfolds at the subscapular (p = .004), there were no differences with the rest of the skinfold sites and the circumferences between participants with lipodystrophy and those without the problem. Similarly, there was no difference in Waist: Hip ratio (WHR) (p = .186) and Waist: Height ratio (WHtR) (p = .257) among participants with lipodystrophy and those without the problem. Further examination showed that none of the 4.1% patients receiving stavudine (d4T) did experience lipoatrophy. However, 17.9% of patients receiving EFV, a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) had lipoatrophy. Study 2 findings showed that presence of lipodystrophy in participants receiving ARVs was in fact far higher than that of HIV-infected ART-naïve participants. A final hypothesis was that the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in participants receiving ARVs was not different from that of HIV-infected ART-naïve participants. Moreover, data showed that many patients (69.2%) lived with at least one feature of the metabolic syndrome based on International Diabetic Federation (IDF, 2006) definition. However, there was no single anthropometric predictor of components of the syndrome, thus, the best anthropometric predictor varied as the component varied. The metabolic syndrome was diagnosed in 15.2% of the subjects, lower than commonly reported in this population, and was similar between the medicated and the exposed groups (χ 21 = 0.018, p = .893). Moreover, the syndrome was associated with older age (p = .031) and percent body fat (p = .012). In addition, participants with the syndrome were heavier according to BMI (p = .000), larger at the waist (p = .000) and abdomen (p = .000), and were at central obesity risk even when hip circumference (p = .000) and height (p = .000) were accounted for. In spite of those associations, results showed that the period with disease (p = .13), CD4 counts (p = .836), receiving ART (p = .442) or PIs (p = .678) were not associated with the metabolic syndrome. While the prevalence of the syndrome was highest amongst the older, larger and fatter participants, WC was the best predictor of the metabolic syndrome (p = .001). Another novel finding was that participants with the metabolic syndrome had greater arm muscle circumference (AMC) (p = .000) and arm muscle area (AMA) (p = .000), but the former was most influential. Accordingly, the easiest and cheapest indicator to assess risk in this study sample was WC should routine laboratory services not be feasible. In addition, the final study illustrated that the prevalence of the metabolic syndrome in participants receiving ARVs was not different from that of HIV-infected ART-naïve participants.

Error and uncertainty of adult age estimation of the pubic symphysis in an Australian sub-population using computed tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of: (1) the error and uncertainty associated with the application of the Suchey-Brooks (S-B) method of age estimation of the pubic symphysis to a contemporary Australian population; (2) the implications of sexual dimorphism and bilateral asymmetry of the pubic symphysis through preliminary geometric morphometric assessment; and (3) the value of three-dimensional (3D) autopsy data acquisition for creating forensic anthropological standards. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating that, in the absence of demographically sound skeletal collections, post-mortem autopsy data provides an exciting platform for the construction of large contemporary ‘virtual osteological libraries’ for which forensic anthropological research can be conducted on Australian individuals. More specifically, this study assesses the applicability and accuracy of the S-B method to a contemporary adult population in Queensland, Australia, and using a geometric morphometric approach, provides an insight to the age-related degeneration of the pubic symphysis. Despite the prominent use of the Suchey-Brooks (1990) method of age estimation in forensic anthropological practice, it is subject to intrinsic limitations, with reports of differential inter-population error rates between geographical locations1-4. Australian forensic anthropology is constrained by a paucity of population specific standards due to a lack of repositories of documented skeletons. Consequently, in Australian casework proceedings, standards constructed from predominately American reference samples are applied to establish a biological profile. In the global era of terrorism and natural disasters, more specific population standards are required to improve the efficiency of medico-legal death investigation in Queensland. The sample comprises multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) scans of the pubic symphysis (slice thickness: 0.5mm, overlap: 0.1mm) on 195 individuals of caucasian ethnicity aged 15-70 years. Volume rendering reconstruction of the symphyseal surface was conducted in Amira® (v.4.1) and quantitative analyses in Rapidform® XOS. The sample was divided into ten-year age sub-sets (eg. 15-24) with a final sub-set of 65-70 years. Error with respect to the method’s assigned means were analysed on the basis of bias (directionality of error), inaccuracy (magnitude of error) and percentage correct classification of left and right symphyseal surfaces. Morphometric variables including surface area, circumference, maximum height and width of the symphyseal surface and micro-architectural assessment of cortical and trabecular bone composition were quantified using novel automated engineering software capabilities. The results of this study demonstrated correct age classification utilizing the mean and standard deviations of each phase of the S-B method of 80.02% and 86.18% in Australian males and females, respectively. Application of the S-B method resulted in positive biases and mean inaccuracies of 7.24 (±6.56) years for individuals less than 55 years of age, compared to negative biases and mean inaccuracies of 5.89 (±3.90) years for individuals greater than 55 years of age. Statistically significant differences between chronological and S-B mean age were demonstrated in 83.33% and 50% of the six age subsets in males and females, respectively. Asymmetry of the pubic symphysis was a frequent phenomenon with 53.33% of the Queensland population exhibiting statistically significant (χ2 - p<0.01) differential phase classification of left and right surfaces of the same individual. Directionality was found in bilateral asymmetry, with the right symphyseal faces being slightly older on average and providing more accurate estimates using the S-B method5. Morphometric analysis verified these findings, with the left surface exhibiting significantly greater circumference and surface area than the right (p<0.05). Morphometric analysis demonstrated an increase in maximum height and width of the surface with age, with most significant changes (p<0.05) occurring between the 25-34 and 55-64 year age subsets. These differences may be attributed to hormonal components linked to menopause in females and a reduction in testosterone in males. Micro-architectural analysis demonstrated degradation of cortical composition with age, with differential bone resorption between the medial, ventral and dorsal surfaces of the pubic symphysis. This study recommends that the S-B method be applied with caution in medico-legal death investigations of unknown skeletal remains in Queensland. Age estimation will always be accompanied by error; therefore this study demonstrates the potential for quantitative morphometric modelling of age related changes of the pubic symphysis as a tool for methodological refinement, providing a rigor and robust assessment to remove the subjectivity associated with current pelvic aging methods.

Development and application of a predictive model of freshwater fish assemblage composition to evaluate river health in eastern Australia

Multivariate predictive models are widely used tools for assessment of aquatic ecosystem health and models have been successfully developed for the prediction and assessment of aquatic macroinvertebrates, diatoms, local stream habitat features and fish. We evaluated the ability of a modelling method based on the River InVertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS) to accurately predict freshwater fish assemblage composition and assess aquatic ecosystem health in rivers and streams of south-eastern Queensland, Australia. The predictive model was developed, validated and tested in a region of comparatively high environmental variability due to the unpredictable nature of rainfall and river discharge. The model was concluded to provide sufficiently accurate and precise predictions of species composition and was sensitive enough to distinguish test sites impacted by several common types of human disturbance (particularly impacts associated with catchment land use and associated local riparian, in-stream habitat and water quality degradation). The total number of fish species available for prediction was low in comparison to similar applications of multivariate predictive models based on other indicator groups, yet the accuracy and precision of our model was comparable to outcomes from such studies. In addition, our model developed for sites sampled on one occasion and in one season only (winter), was able to accurately predict fish assemblage composition at sites sampled during other seasons and years, provided that they were not subject to unusually extreme environmental conditions (e.g. extended periods of low flow that restricted fish movement or resulted in habitat desiccation and local fish extinctions).

Morphometric modelling of ageing in the human pubic symphysis : sexual dimorphism in an Australian population

Despite the prominent use of the pubic symphysis for age estimation in forensic anthropology, little has been documented regarding the quantitative morphological and micro-architectural changes of this surface. Specifically, utilising post-mortem computed tomography data from a large, contemporary Australian adult population, this study aimed to evaluate sexual dimorphism in the morphology and bone composition of the symphyseal surface; and temporal characterisation of the pubic symphysis in individuals of advancing age. The sample consisted of multi-slice computed tomography (MSCT) scans of the pubic symphysis(slice thickness: 0.5 mm, overlap: 0.1 mm) of 200 individuals of Caucasian ancestry aged 15–70 years, obtained in 2011. Surface rendering reconstruction of the symphyseal surface was conducted in OsiriX1 (v.4.1) and quantitative analyses in Rapidform XOSTM and OsteomeasureTM. Morphometric variables including inter-pubic distance, surface area, circumference, maximum height and width of the symphyseal surface and micro-architectural assessment of cortical and trabecular bone compositions were quantified using novel automated engineering software capabilities. The major results of this study are correlated with the macroscopic ossification and degeneration pattern of the symphyseal surface, demonstrating significant age-related changes in the morphometric and bone tissue variables between 15 and 70 years. Regardless of sex, the overall dimensions of the symphyseal surface increased with age, coupled with a decrease in bone mass in the trabecular and cortical bone compartments. Significant differences between the ventral, dorsal and medial cortical surfaces were observed, which may be correlated to bone formation activity dependent on muscle activity and ligamentous attachments. Our study demonstrates significant sexual dimorphism at this site, with males exhibiting greater surface dimensions than females. These baseline results provide a detailed insight into the changes in the structure of the pubic symphysis with ageing and sexually dimorphic features associated with the cortical and trabecular bone profiles.

Weight-related differences in glucose metabolism and free fatty acid production in two South African population groups

OBJECTIVE The effects of free fatty acids (FFA), leptin, tumour necrosis factor (TNF) alpha and body fat distribution on in vivo oxidation of a glucose load were studied in two South African ethnic groups. DESIGN AND MEASUREMENTS Anthropometric and various metabolic indices were measured at fasting and during a 7h oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Body composition was measured using bioelectrical impedance analysis and subcutaneous and visceral fat mass was assessed using a five- and two-level CT-scan respectively. Glucose oxidation was evaluated by measuring the ratio of (13)CO(2) to (12)CO(2) in breath following ingestion of 1-(13)C-labelled glucose. SUBJECTS Ten lean black women (LBW), ten obese black women (OBW), nine lean white women (LWW) and nine obese white women (OWW) were investigated after an overnight fast. RESULTS Visceral fat levels were significantly higher (P < 0.01) in obese white than black women, despite similar body mass indexes (BMIs). There were no ethnic differences in glucose oxidation however; in the lean subjects of both ethnic groups the area under the curve (AUC) was higher than in obese subjects (P < 0.05 for both) and was found to correlate negatively with weight (r = -0.69, P < 0.01) after correcting for age. Basal TNF alpha concentrations were similar in all groups. Percentage suppression of FFAs at 30 min of the OCTT was 24 +/- 12% in OWW and - 38 +/- 23% (P < 0.05) in OBW, ie the 30 min FFA level was higher than the fasting level in the latter group. AUC for FFAs during the late postprandial period (120 - 420 min) was significantly higher in OWW than OBW (P < 0.01) and LWW (P < 0.01) and correlated positively with visceral fat mass independent of age (r = 0.78, P < 0.05) in the OWW only. Leptin levels were higher (P < 0.01) both at fasting and during the course of the OCTT in obese women from both ethnic groups compared to the lean women. CONCLUSIONS Glucose oxidation is reduced in obese subjects of both ethnic groups; inter- and intra-ethnic differences were observed in visceral fat mass and FFA production and it is possible that such differences may play a role in the differing prevalences of obesity-related disorders that have been reported in these two populations.

Identification of bacterial community composition in freshwater aquaculture system farming of Litopenaeus vannamei reveals distinct temperature-driven patterns

Change in temperature is often a major environmental factor in triggering waterborne disease outbreaks. Previous research has revealed temporal and spatial patterns of bacterial population in several aquatic ecosystems. To date, very little information is available on aquaculture environment. Here, we assessed environmental temperature effects on bacterial community composition in freshwater aquaculture system farming of Litopenaeus vannamei (FASFL). Water samples were collected over a one-year period, and aquatic bacteria were characterized by polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (PCR-DGGE) and 16S rDNA pyrosequencing. Resulting DGGE fingerprints revealed a specific and dynamic bacterial population structure with considerable variation over the seasonal change, suggesting that environmental temperature was a key driver of bacterial population in the FASFL. Pyrosequencing data further demonstrated substantial difference in bacterial community composition between the water at higher (WHT) and at lower (WLT) temperatures in the FASFL. Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes were the highest abundant phyla in the FASFL, however, a large number of unclassified bacteria contributed the most to the observed variation in phylogenetic diversity. The WHT harbored remarkably higher diversity and richness in bacterial composition at genus and species levels when compared to the WLT. Some potential pathogenenic species were identified in both WHT and WLT, providing data in support of aquatic animal health management in the aquaculture industry.

Global standard for the composition of infant formula: Recommendations of an ESPGHAN coordinated international expert group

The Codex Alimentarius Commission of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Health Organization (WHO) develops food standards, guidelines and related texts for protecting consumer health and ensuring fair trade practices globally. The major part of the world's population lives in more than 160 countries that are members of the Codex Alimentarius. The Codex Standard on Infant Formula was adopted in 1981 based on scientific knowledge available in the 1970s and is currently being revised. As part of this process, the Codex Committee on Nutrition and Foods for Special Dietary Uses asked the ESPGHAN Committee on Nutrition to initiate a consultation process with the international scientific community to provide a proposal on nutrient levels in infant formulae, based on scientific analysis and taking into account existing scientific reports on the subject. ESPGHAN accepted the request and, in collaboration with its sister societies in the Federation of International Societies on Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology and Nutrition, invited highly qualified experts in the area of infant nutrition to form an International Expert Group (IEG) to review the issues raised. The group arrived at recommendations on the compositional requirements for a global infant formula standard which are reported here.

Impact of ethnicity upon body composition assessment in Sri Lankan Australian children

Objectives: Obesity is a disease with excess body fat where health is adversely affected. Therefore it is prudent to make the diagnosis of obesity based on the measure of percentage body fat. Body composition of a group of Australian children of Sri Lankan origin were studied to evaluate the applicability of some bedside techniques in the measurement of percentage body fat. Methods: Height (H) and weight (W) was measured and BMI (W/H2) calculated. Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) was measured using tetra polar technique with an 800 μA current of 50 Hz frequency. Total body water was used as a reference method and was determined by deuterium dilution and fat free mass and hence fat mass (FM) derived using age and gender specific constants. Percentage FM was estimated using four predictive equations, which used BIA and anthropometric measurements. Results: Twenty-seven boys and 15 girls were studied with mean ages being 9.1 years and 9.6 years, respectively. Girls had a significantly higher FM compared to boys. The mean percentage FM of boys (22.9 ± 8.7%) was higher than the limit for obesity and for girls (29.0 ± 6.0%) it was just below the cut-off. BMI was comparatively low. All but BIA equation in boys under estimated the percentage FM. The impedance index and weight showed a strong association with total body water (r 2 = 0.96, P < 0.001). Except for BIA in boys all other techniques under diagnosed obesity. Conclusions: Sri Lankan Australian children appear to have a high percentage of fat with a low BMI and some of the available indirect techniques are not helpful in the assessment of body composition. Therefore ethnic and/or population specific predictive equations have to be developed for the assessment of body composition, especially in a multicultural society using indirect methods such as BIA or anthropometry.