Elicitator : a user-friendly, interactive tool to support scenario-based elicitation of expert knowledge

Expert elicitation is the process of determining what expert knowledge is relevant to support a quantitative analysis and then eliciting this information in a form that supports analysis or decision-making. The credibility of the overall analysis, therefore, relies on the credibility of the elicited knowledge. This, in turn, is determined by the rigor of the design and execution of the elicitation methodology, as well as by its clear communication to ensure transparency and repeatability. It is difficult to establish rigor when the elicitation methods are not documented, as often occurs in ecological research. In this chapter, we describe software that can be combined with a well-structured elicitation process to improve the rigor of expert elicitation and documentation of the results

Murray Valley Encephalitis

Outbreaks of an acute, severe, encephalitic illness, clinically similar to Japanese and St. Louis encephalitis, occurred in rural areas of southeastern Australia in 1917, 1918, 1922, 1925, 1951, and 1974[1,9,14-16] and in north and northwestern Australia in 1981, 1993, and 2000.[8,12,41] Approximately 420 cases were reported in these nine outbreaks.[41] They are thought to represent a single entity for which various names (Australian X disease, Murray Valley encephalitis, Australian encephalitis) have been used. Twenty-two cases were diagnosed in the 5 years between 2007 and 2011; three were fatal, and one of the fatalities occurred in a Canadian tourist on return from a holiday in northern Australia. Case-fatality rates, as high as 70 percent in the early years,[9,11] declined to 20 percent in the 1974 outbreak and have remained at about this level since then.[5,10,12] However, significant residual neurologic disability occurs in as many as 50 percent of survivors.[10,12] The presence of this disease in Papua New Guinea was confirmed in 1956.[20] The causative virus was transmitted to experimental animals as early as 1918,[6,11] although those strains could not be maintained. The definitive isolation and characterization of Murray Valley encephalitis virus in 1951[19] led to epidemiologic studies that suggested its survival in bird-mosquito cycles in northern Australia but not in the area of epidemic occurrence in southern Australia.[1] Murray Valley encephalitis is caused by Murray Valley encephalitis virus. In an effort to dissociate a disease from a specific locality, the term Australian encephalitis was proposed by residents of Murray Valley for the disease caused by Murray Valley encephalitis virus. Some researchers subsequently have attempted to expand the term Australian encephalitis to include encephalitis caused by any Australian arbovirus. Because the term Australian encephalitis has no scientific validity and is ambiguous, it should not be used.

Adding paths to resilience and daily accounts to an already rich field of inquiry: A brief commentary on James Jackson's "Social structure and health disparities"

In absolute terms, there have been improvements in social resources for all racial and ethnic groups in the United States. The rise in education levels among blacks and Hispanics, for instance, suggests a lessening of the gap between classes, beginning in the later part of the 1960’s (Kao & Thompson, 2003). Yet the divide in income and to a lesser extent education between peoples who differ in gender, skin color and ethnic origin continues and in many ways is greater now than ever (Danziger & Gottschalk, 1997); (Gottschalk, 1997). The psychological distance between those high and those low in social-economic status continues unabated and threatens to undermine the capacity of communities to foster the positive architecture of hope, optimism and equal opportunity that holds us together as a nation...

Rejoinder to James Hamilton

Hamilton (2001) makes a number of comments on our paper (Harding and Pagan, 2002b). The objectives of this rejoinder are, firstly, to note the areas in which we agree; secondly, to define with greater clarity the areas in which we disagree; and, thirdly, to point to other papers, including a longer version of this response, where we have dealt with some of the issues that he raises. The core of our debate with him is whether one should use an algorithm with a specified set of rules for determining the turning points in economic activity or whether one should use a parametric model that features latent states. Hamilton begins his criticism by stating that there is a philosophical distinction between the two methods for dating cycles and concludes that the method we use “leaves vague and intuitive exactly what this algorithm is intended to measure”. Nothing is further from the truth. When seeking ways to decide on whether a turning point has occurred it is always useful to ask the question, what is a recession? Common usage suggests that it is a decline in the level of economic activity that lasts for some time. For this reason it has become standard to describe a recession as a decline in GDP that lasts for more than two quarters. Finding periods in which quarterly GDP declined for two periods is exactly what our approach does. What is vague about this?

Grounded Light

A promenade performance. This research produced a unique combination of performance using electronically augmented costuming, site-specific discrete electronic lighting and video projection and sustained mountainside/top choreography. The work was examined and expanded in two subsequent peer reviewed papers which scoped out the emerging field of ‘Grounded Media’. Curator and writer Kevin Murray further accorded and enhanced these ideas in subsequent critical writing and the work was also featured in a two page major profile in RealtimeThe work was commissioned by the long established Floating Land Festival and involved extensive on-site work as well as a residency, production and artist talk series at the Noosa Art Gallery. A documentary film of the work was subsequently presented in the three-month exhibition ‘Lines of Sight’ for the Nishi Ogi Machi Media Festival, Nishiogikubo Station Platform 1, Tokyo, Japan, curated by Youkobo Art Space.

James Street market, Brisbane : a subtropical retail case study

Climate change mitigation is driving demand for energy-efficient and environmentally conscious commercial buildings in Australia. In the Australian subtropics, high rainfall, warm weather and humidity present unique challenges and opportunities for the architects tasked with designing eco-sensitive projects. The case of the James Street Market in Brisbane’s Fortitude Valley shows that climate-responsive design is an effective approach for reducing the environmental impact of commercial developments. The James Street Market combines climate-responsiveness, environmentally sensitive design strategies and smart planning to create a more sustainable retail precinct. This paper details the design strategies featured in the James Street Market, the project that kicked off a renaissance in climate-responsive commercial building design in Brisbane.

Doing justice : young people’s representations of the Murray-Darling Basin

The business of helping children to grow up as ‘custodians’, or ‘future managers’ of the Murray-Darling Basin is not simple, and that single sources of information and ways of seeing the environment are not enough. Children (and adults) need to be able to relate individually, emotionally and aesthetically to their places if they are to learn to love them. However, they also need access to a variety of ways of thinking and seeing those same places if they are to be able to take action to sustain them – action that inevitably involves forms of communication with their fellow citizens. This chapter documents the writing and art program Special Forever, with its focus on communications, as an important intervention into promoting eco-social sustainability.