Property cash flow studies : focusing on model consistency and data accuracy

The high degree of variability and inconsistency in cash flow study usage by property professionals demands improvement in knowledge and processes. Until recently limited research was being undertaken on the use of cash flow studies in property valuations but the growing acceptance of this approach for major investment valuations has resulted in renewed interest in this topic. Studies on valuation variations identify data accuracy, model consistency and bias as major concerns. In cash flow studies there are practical problems with the input data and the consistency of the models. This study will refer to the recent literature and identify the major factors in model inconsistency and data selection. A detailed case study will be used to examine the effects of changes in structure and inputs. The key variable inputs will be identified and proposals developed to improve the selection process for these key variables. The variables will be selected with the aid of sensitivity studies and alternative ways of quantifying the key variables explained. The paper recommends, with reservations, the use of probability profiles of the variables and the incorporation of this data in simulation exercises. The use of Monte Carlo simulation is demonstrated and the factors influencing the structure of the probability distributions of the key variables are outline. This study relates to ongoing research into functional performance of commercial property within an Australian Cooperative Research Centre.

Adaptive Bayesian compound designs for dose finding studies

We consider the problem of how to efficiently and safely design dose finding studies. Both current and novel utility functions are explored using Bayesian adaptive design methodology for the estimation of a maximum tolerated dose (MTD). In particular, we explore widely adopted approaches such as the continual reassessment method and minimizing the variance of the estimate of an MTD. New utility functions are constructed in the Bayesian framework and are evaluated against current approaches. To reduce computing time, importance sampling is implemented to re-weight posterior samples thus avoiding the need to draw samples using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. Further, as such studies are generally first-in-man, the safety of patients is paramount. We therefore explore methods for the incorporation of safety considerations into utility functions to ensure that only safe and well-predicted doses are administered. The amalgamation of Bayesian methodology, adaptive design and compound utility functions is termed adaptive Bayesian compound design (ABCD). The performance of this amalgamation of methodology is investigated via the simulation of dose finding studies. The paper concludes with a discussion of results and extensions that could be included into our approach.

The incorporation of web 2.0 into learning design : an implementation model from the perspectives of teachers and students

This paper summarises some of the recent studies on various types of learning approaches that have utilised some form of Web 2.0 services in curriculum design to enhance learning. A generic implementation model of this integration will then be presented to illustrate the overall learning implementation process. Recently, the integration of Web 2.0 technologies into learning curriculum has begun to get a wide acceptance among teaching instructors across various higher learning institutions. This is evidenced by numerous studies which indicate the implementation of a range of Web 2.0 technologies into their learning design to improve learning delivery. Moreover, recent studies also have shown that the ability of current students to embrace Web 2.0 technologies is better than students using existing learning technology. Despite various attempts made by teachers in relation to the integration, researchers have noted a lack of integration standard to help in curriculum design. The absence of this standard will restrict the capacity of Web 2.0 adaptation into learning and adding more the complexity to provide meaningful learning. Therefore, this paper will attempt to draw a conceptual integration model which is being generated to reflect how learning activities with some facilitation of Web 2.0 is currently being implemented. The design of this model is based on shared experiences by many scholars as well as feedback gathered from two separate surveys conducted on teachers and a group of 180 students. Furthermore, this paper also recognizes some key components that generally engage in the design of a Web 2.0 teaching and learning which need to be addressed accordingly. Overall, the content of this paper will be organised as follows. The first part of the paper will introduce the importance of Web 2.0 implementation in teaching and learning from the perspective of higher education institutions and those challenges surrounding this area. The second part summarizes related works done in this field and brings forward the concept of designing learning with the incorporation of Web 2.0 technology. The next part presents the results of analysis derived from the two student and teachers surveys on using Web 2.0 during learning activities. This paper concludes by presenting a model that reflects several key entities that may be involved during the learning design.

Incorporation of road safety into road management systems

Road collisions negatively affect the lives of hundreds of Canadians per year. Unfortunately, safety has been typically neglected from management systems. It is common to find that a great deal of effort has been devoted to develop and implement systems capable of achieving and sustaining good levels of condition. It is relatively recent that road safety has become an important objective. Managing a network of roads is not an easy task; it requires long, medium and short term plans to maintain, rehabilitate and upgrade aging assets, reduce and mitigate accident exposure, likelihood and severity. This thesis presents a basis for incorporating road safety into road management systems; two case studies were developed; one limited by available data and another from sufficient information. A long term analysis was used to allocate improvements for condition and safety of roads and bridges, at the network level. It was confirmed that a safety index could be used to obtain a first cut model; meanwhile potential for improvement which is a difference between observed and predicted number of accidents was capable of capturing the degree of safety of individual segments. It was found that the completeness of the system resulted in savings because of the economies obtained from trade-off optimization. It was observed that safety improvements were allocated at the beginning of the analysis in order to reduce the extent of issues, which translated into a systematic reduction of potential for improvement up to a point of near constant levels, which were hypothesized to relate to those unavoidable collisions from human error or vehicle failure.

Experimental studies on comparison of microwave curing and thermal curing of epoxy resins used for alternative mould materials

In this present work attempts have been made to study the glass transition temperature of alternative mould materials by using both microwave heating and conventional oven heating. In this present work three epoxy resins, namely R2512, R2515 and R2516, which are commonly used for making injection moulds have been used in combination with two hardeners H2403 and H2409. The magnetron microwave generator used in this research is operating at a frequency of 2.45 GHz with a hollow rectangular waveguide. In order to distinguish the effects between the microwave and conventional heating, a number of experiments were performed to test their mechanical properties such as tensile and flexural strengths. Additionally, differential scanning calorimeter technique was implemented to measure the glass transition temperature on both microwave and conventional heating. This study provided necessary evidences to establish that microwave heated mould materials resulted with higher glass transition temperature than the conventional heating. Finally, attempts were also made to study the microstructure of microwave-cured materials by using a scanning electron microscope in order to analyze the morphology of cured specimens.