Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

"Over The Hill" is not so far away : crossing teaching contexts to create benefits for all through rural teaching experiences.

Attracting and retaining quality teachers to rural and remote areas has been a challenge over the last decade. Many preservice teachers are reluctant to experience a rural and remote practicum and may not consider applying to teach in such areas when they graduate. Education departments and universities need to explore innovative ways that will encourage graduates to consider undertaking a teaching position in the bush. As a way forward, preservice teachers from a regional campus of a Queensland University were invited to participate in a six-day rural experience entitled ‘Over the Hill’ that included being billeted with local families, participating in community activities and observing and teaching in classrooms. Fifteen preservice teachers were accompanied by two university academics who returned to work in a classroom as teacher for their own rural and remote professional experience. The aim of this qualitative study was to explore and describe the perceptions of a rural and remote teaching experience from the perspectives of the preservice teachers, the accompanying academics and the school staff hosting the program. Data were collected from the preservice teachers and accompanying academics in the form of written reflections while fourteen school staff completed a related questionnaire. The results indicated that a six-day rural and remote teaching program can provide professional benefits for all involved, preservice teachers, accompanying academics and the school staff hosting the program. Indeed, this study indicates that short experiences such as “Over the Hill” not only assist preservice teachers to make informed decisions about teaching in rural and remote areas but can provide professional benefits for accompanying academics and the schools.

QoS-Based Web Service Scheduling Accommodating Inter-Service Dependencies Using Minimal-Conflict Hill-Climbing Repair Genetic Algorithm

In the filed of semantic grid, QoS-based Web service scheduling for workflow optimization is an important problem.However, in semantic and service rich environment like semantic grid, the emergence of context constraints on Web services is very common making the scheduling consider not only quality properties of Web services, but also inter service dependencies which are formed due to the context constraints imposed on Web services. In this paper, we present a repair genetic algorithm, namely minimal-conflict hill-climbing repair genetic algorithm, to address scheduling optimization problems in workflow applications in the presence of domain constraints and inter service dependencies. Experimental results demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of the genetic algorithm.

QoS-based web service composition accommodating inter-service dependencies using minimal-conflict , hill-climbing repair genetic algorithm

In the field of semantic grid, QoS-based Web service composition is an important problem. In semantic and service rich environment like semantic grid, the emergence of context constraints on Web services is very common making the composition consider not only QoS properties of Web services, but also inter service dependencies and conflicts which are formed due to the context constraints imposed on Web services. In this paper, we present a repair genetic algorithm, namely minimal-conflict hill-climbing repair genetic algorithm, to address the Web service composition optimization problem in the presence of domain constraints and inter service dependencies and conflicts. Experimental results demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of the genetic algorithm.

Spontaneous pacing during overground hill running

Purpose: To investigate speed regulation during overground running on undulating terrain. Methods: Following an initial laboratory session to calculate physiological thresholds, eight experienced runners completed a spontaneously paced time trial over 3 laps of an outdoor course involving uphill, downhill and level sections. A portable gas analyser, GPS receiver and activity monitor were used to collect physiological, speed and stride frequency data. Results: Participants ran 23% slower on uphills and 13.8% faster on downhills compared with level sections. Speeds on level sections were significantly different for 78.4 ± 7.0 seconds following an uphill and 23.6 ± 2.2 seconds following a downhill. Speed changes were primarily regulated by stride length which was 20.5% shorter uphill and 16.2% longer downhill, while stride frequency was relatively stable. Oxygen consumption averaged 100.4% of runner’s individual ventilatory thresholds on uphills, 78.9% on downhills and 89.3% on level sections. 89% of group level speed was predicted using a modified gradient factor. Individuals adopted distinct pacing strategies, both across laps and as a function of gradient. Conclusions: Speed was best predicted using a weighted factor to account for prior and current gradients. Oxygen consumption (VO2) limited runner’s speeds only on uphill sections, and was maintained in line with individual ventilatory thresholds. Running speed showed larger individual variation on downhill sections, while speed on the level was systematically influenced by the preceding gradient. Runners who varied their pace more as a function of gradient showed a more consistent level of oxygen consumption. These results suggest that optimising time on the level sections after hills offers the greatest potential to minimise overall time when running over undulating terrain.

An interview with Dr. Benjamin Isakhan : on the alternative histories of democracy

Dr. Isakahn is currently a research associate with the Centre for Dialogue at La Trobe University in Australia. His latest works include several forthcoming books: Democracy in Iraq is a monograph soon to be released; whilst The Edinburgh Companion to the History of Democracy and The Secret History of Democracy, both done in concert with Stephen Stockwell, are edited collections. His most recent articles include “Targeting the Symbolic Dimension of Baathist Iraq,” “Measuring Islam in Australia” and “Manufacturing Consent in Iraq.” For further information regarding Dr. Isakhan and his works, please visit his website, www.benjaminisakhan.com.

Promoting rural and remote teacher education in Australia through the Over the Hill project

Attracting quality teachers to rural areas is an ongoing international concern. Teacher education institutions have been criticised for contributing to this problem by failing to raise an awareness of teaching in rural areas in their teacher education programs. This study investigates preservice teachers’ perceptions towards teaching in rural areas after participating in a rural experience through the Over the Hill project. A self-selected group of second and third year preservice teachers from a regional campus of an urban Queensland university participated in a six-day rural experience, which included being billeted with local families, attending local community events and observing and teaching in rural primary and secondary schools. Data collected from the preservice teachers before and after the rural teaching experience were analysed to reveal positive perceptions towards teaching and living in rural communities. The findings revealed that even a brief immersion into rural schooling communities can positively influence preservice teachers’ attitudes towards seeking rural teaching placements. These findings have implications for the ways in which teacher education institutions can promote rural teaching opportunities in their teacher education programs.

Wilkins Hill : on the cusp of meaning

If contemporary artworks are often considered to be puzzles or riddles, then Wilkins Hill take this to a new level. Their recent exhibition Windows impersonating other windows, confronts viewers with an extremely ludic configuration: a spa bath full of almonds, towel racks placed before photos of Martin Heidegger distorted in neat grids, a video of a water tower in a Hamburg park, wooden cut-out speech bubbles and monitors that continuously play interviews with the artists themselves. What does it all mean?

Review: "Breast cancer : can you prevent it?" by A. Lawson, J. Lawson. McGraw-Hill Book (1998)

While reviewing this book, I was not of the target audience. For example, there is a first chapter (presented as a case study, and integrated in an unconvincing manner into the remainder of the book) that obviously meant to soften the book for the lay person. In the third chapter, the authors provide their philosophical interpretation on the meaning of breasts for reasons that entirely escape me, and that have no relation to the book as a whole. Finally, there are potted histories of the heroics of ‘tireless’, ‘dedicated’ and ‘earnest’ epidemiologists, some of whom have nothing to do with breast cancer or the book at all. Despite this lack of focus, the authors give an honest and coherent account of the current state of breast cancer research from an epidemiological viewpoint...

Mapping mountains : a morphological study of traditional highland settlements in Chittagong Hill tracts of Bangladesh

This thesis is a morphological study of the settlement patterns of the diverse hill groups in Chittagong Hill Tracts – a mountainous borderland of Bangladesh in South Asia. It examines the settlement morphology of a hill town, using a combination of both quantitative and qualitative methods, and explains the recurrent neighbourhood types of the highland groups in relation to their urbanisation. The research findings related to the settlements of diverse cultural groups in a cross-border region of the Asian uplands are also relevant to similar contexts and enquiries. Furthermore, the developed methodological framework that facilitated the data collection process in CHT's culturally diverse regions is also applicable to the investigation of geographic areas with similar socio-cultural complexities. Finally, this research specifically contributes to the literature of cross-cultural studies of highland towns and vernacular settlements in the Asian context.

Brighter lights on Capital Hill? Speculations upon federal framing and policy analysis of Indigenous issues

Postwar Australian social policy has occurred within neoliberal, social-conservative and social democratic ideational frameworks. Recent perceptions vary from concern about high levels of public spending, through disquiet about cultural change, to fear that government inaction is ignoring community needs and creating fractious and unhealthy social conditions. this paper examines these alternate ideological influences as they could affect Indigenous Australians with a focus on the values and approaches that might lead logically to desirable outcomes. effective policy requires clarity and compatibility between government thinking and the social values of Indigenous people. At issue is how the objectives of policy for Indigenous citizens might be determined.

Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

Red Hill

Synopsis and review of the Australian feature film Red Hill, directed by Patrick Hughes and starring Ryan Kwanten.