Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics

Stronger investor interest in commodities may create closer integration with conventional asset markets. We estimate sudden and gradual changes in correlation between stocks, bonds and commodity futures returns driven by observable financial variables and time, using double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC–GARCH) models. Most correlations begin the 1990s near zero but closer integration emerges around the early 2000s and reaches peaks during the recent crisis. Diversification benefits to investors across equity, bond and stock markets were significantly reduced. Increases in VIX and financial traders’ short open interest raise futures returns volatility for many commodities. Higher VIX also increases commodity returns correlation with equity returns for about half the pairs, indicating closer integration.

Valuation methods for resident funded retirement villages in Australia : a practitioner's perspective

Designed for independent living, retirement villages provide either detached or semi-detached residential dwellings with car parking and small private yards. Retirement village developments usually include a mix of independent living units (ILUs) and serviced apartments (SAs) with community facilities providing a shared congregational area for village activities and socialising. Retirement Village assets differ from traditional residential assets due to their operation in accordance with statutory legislation. In Australia, each State and Territory has its own Retirement Village Act and Regulations. In essence, the village operator provides the land and buildings to the residents who pay an amount on entry for the right of occupation. On departure from the units an agreed proportion of either the original purchase price or the sale price is paid to the outgoing resident. The market value of the operator’s interest in the Retirement Village is therefore based upon the estimated future income from Deferred Management Fees and Capital Gain upon roll-over receivable by the operator in accordance with the respective residency agreements. Given the lumpiness of these payments, there is general acceptance that the most appropriate approach to valuation is through Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis. There is however inconsistency between valuers across Australia in how they undertake their DCF analysis, leading to differences in reported values and subsequent confusion among users of valuation services. To give guidance to valuers and enhance confidence from users of valuation services this paper investigates the five major elements of discounted cash flow methodology, namely cash flows, escalation factors, holding period, terminal value and discount rate. Whilst there is dissatisfaction with the financial structuring of the DMF in residency agreements, as long as there are future financial returns receivable by the Village owner/operator, then DCF will continue to be the most appropriate valuation methodology for resident funded retirement villages.

A comparison of farmland returns in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and United States

Rural land is still a major property asset class and rural commodity production is an important domestic and export market in all economies. This paper carries out a comprehensive analysis of both rural production and land prices in four major rural production countries. The study compares rural property values in Unites States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand over a period 1990 to 2005 and analyzes and compares the capital return and total return performance for rural land in these four countries. The analysis allows a comparison of farm land returns for both a subsidised and non-subsidised farming policy to determine if levels of farm support result in variations in farm profitability and therefore farm land values.

Pairs trading profits in commodity futures markets

This study employs a pairs trading investment strategy on daily commodity futures returns. The study reveals that pairs trading in similarly related commodity futures earns statistically significant excess returns with commensurate volatility. The excess returns from pairs trading in commodity futures are unrelated to conventional market risk factors and they are not associated with classic contrarian investing. The evidence of pairs trading reflect compensation to arbitrageurs for enforcing the law of one price in similarly related market efficiency.

What drives the commodity price beta of oil industry stocks

We test theoretical drivers of the oil price beta of oil industry stocks. The strongest statistical and economic support comes for market conditions-type variables as the prime drivers: namely, oil price (+), bond rate (+), volatility of oil returns (−) and cost of carry (+). Though statistically significant, exogenous firm characteristics and oil firms' financing decisions have less compelling economic significance. There is weaker support for the prediction that financial risk management reduces the exposure of oil stocks to crude oil price variation. Finally, extended modelling shows that mean reversion in oil prices also helps explain cross-sectional variation in the oil beta.

Projections of the future path of the gender wage gap in Great Britain

Purpose – The paper attempts to project the future trend of the gender wage gap in Great Britain up to 2031. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical analysis utilises the British Household Panel Study Wave F together with Office for National Statistics (ONS) demographic projections. The methodology combines the ONS projections with assumptions relating to the evolution of educational attainment in order to project the future distribution of human capital skills and consequently the future size of the gender wage gap. Findings – The analysis suggests that gender wage convergence will be slow, with little female progress by 2031 unless there is a large rise in returns to female experience. Originality/value – The paper has projected the pattern of male and female skill acquisition together with the associated trend in wages up to 2031.

Climate Change and the Resilience of Commodity Food Production in Australia

The current view of Australian state and national governments about the effects of climate change on agriculture is that farmers – through the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies – will remain resilient, and agricultural production will continue to expand. The assumption is that neoliberalism will provide the best ‘free market’ options for climate change mitigation and adaptation in farming. In contrast, we argue that neoliberalism will increase the move towards productivis (‘high-tech’) agriculture – the very system that has caused major environmental damage to the Australian continent. High-tech farming is highly dependent upon access to water and fossil fuels, both of which would appear to be the main limits to production in future decades. Productivist agriculture is a system highly reliant upon fertilizers and fuels that are derived from the petrochemical industry, and are currently increasing in cost as the price of oil increases.

Parameter estimation of structural commodity price models

Commodity price modeling is normally approached in terms of structural time-series models, in which the different components (states) have a financial interpretation. The parameters of these models can be estimated using maximum likelihood. This approach results in a non-linear parameter estimation problem and thus a key issue is how to obtain reliable initial estimates. In this paper, we focus on the initial parameter estimation problem for the Schwartz-Smith two-factor model commonly used in asset valuation. We propose the use of a two-step method. The first step considers a univariate model based only on the spot price and uses a transfer function model to obtain initial estimates of the fundamental parameters. The second step uses the estimates obtained in the first step to initialize a re-parameterized state-space-innovations based estimator, which includes information related to future prices. The second step refines the estimates obtained in the first step and also gives estimates of the remaining parameters in the model. This paper is part tutorial in nature and gives an introduction to aspects of commodity price modeling and the associated parameter estimation problem.

Outsourcing income tax returns : convenient and/or controversial

This paper investigates the outsourcing of income tax return preparation by Australian accounting firms. It identifies the extent to which firms are currently outsourcing accounting services or considering outsourcing accounting services, with a focus on personal and business income tax return preparation. The motivations and barriers for outsourcing by Australian accounting firms are also considered in this paper. Privacy, security of client data, and the competence of the outsourcing provider's staff have been identified as risks associated with outsourcing. An expectation relating to confidentiality of client data is also examined in this paper. Statistical analysis of data collected from a random sample of Australian accounting firms using a survey questionnaire provided the empirical data for the paper. The results indicate that the majority of Australian accounting firms are either currently outsourcing or considering outsourcing accounting services, and firms are outsourcing taxation preparation both onshore and offshore. The results also indicate that firms expect the volume of outsourced work to increase in the future. In contrast to the literature identifying labour arbitrage as the primary driver for organisations choosing to outsource, this study found that the main factors considered by accounting firms in the decision to outsource were to expedite delivery of services to clients and to enable the firm to focus on core competencies. Data from this study also supports the literature which ndicates that not all tax practitioners are adhering to codes of conduct in relation to client confidentiality. Research identifying the extent to which accounting services are outsourced is limited, therefore significant contributions to the academic literature and the accounting profession are provided by this ndicates that not all tax practitioners are adhering to codes of conduct in relation to client confidentiality. Research identifying the extent to which accounting services are outsourced is limited, therefore significant contributions to the academic literature and the accounting profession are provided by this study.

Proposals for future BPM research directions

Business Process Management has substantially matured over the last two decades. The techniques, methods and systems available to scope, model, analyze, implement, execute, monitor and even mine a process have been scientifically researched and can be in most cases deployed in practice. In fact, many of these BPM capabilities are nowadays a commodity. However, an opportunity-rich environment and rapidly emerging digital disruptions require new BPM capabilities. In light of this context, this paper proposes three future research and development directions for BPM academics and professionals. First, Ambidextrous BPM demands the shift of focus from exploitative to explorative BPM. Second, Value-driven BPM postulates a stronger focus on the desired outcomes as opposed to the available BPM methods. Third, Customer Process Management suggests complementing the dominating internal view of BPM with a stronger, design-inspired view on the process experiences of external stakeholders.

Technology, Natural Resources and Economic Growth: Improving the Environment for a Greener Future

Description Through a combination of global data analysis and focused country level analysis, this timely book provides answers to the most pertinent country and industry specific questions defining the current relationship between technology, natural resources and economic growth. Contents Contents: Preface Part I: Global Analysis 1. Economic Growth and the Environment 2. Energy Substitution and Carbon Dioxide Emissions 3. Pollution, Natural Resources, and Economic Growth 4. Trade Openness and Environmental Quality 5. Environmental Productivity 6. Energy Price-induced Technological Change 7. Trade-induced Technological Change 8. Regional Economic Integration Part II: Country-Level Analysis 9. Emissions Trading in the United States 10. Increasing Returns to Pollution Abatement in the United States 11. Policy-induced Competitiveness in the United States 12. Trade Liberalization, Technology, and the Environment 13. Policy Implementation and its Effectiveness in China 14. Clean Technological Inventions in Japan 15. Intervention of Economic Policy and its Nonlinear Effects in Japan 16. The Next Emerging Giants: India and Africa 17. Conclusion Index Further information Through a combination of global data analysis and focused country level analysis, this timely book provides answers to the most pertinent country and industry specific questions defining the current relationship between technology, natural resources and economic growth. Shunsuke Managi takes a distinctive approach by focusing on the design and implementation of environmental regulations that encourage technological progress and, in doing so, looks at ways to ensure productivity improvements in the face of increasingly stringent environmental regulations and natural resource depletion. The findings in this important book demonstrate how successful environmental policies can contribute to efficiency by encouraging, rather than inhibiting, technological innovation. Technology, Natural Resources and Economic Growth will provide a valuable resource for a wide readership including postgraduate students, researchers, academics and policy makers working in the fields of environmental and ecological economics.

Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold

This paper employs a VAR-GARCH model to investigate the return links and volatility transmission between the S&P 500 and commodity price indices for energy, food, gold and beverages over the turbulent period from 2000 to 2011. Understanding the price behavior of commodity prices and the volatility transmission mechanism between these markets and the stock exchanges are crucial for each participant, including governments, traders, portfolio managers, consumers, and producers. For return and volatility spillover, the results show significant transmission among the S&P 500 and commodity markets. The past shocks and volatility of the S&P 500 strongly influenced the oil and gold markets. This study finds that the highest conditional correlations are between the S&P 500 and gold index and the S&P 500 and WTI index. We also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for commodities/S&P 500 portfolio holdings using the estimates for each index. Overall, our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity and commodity markets. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.