Report : colorbond degradation model

This report documents work carried out in order to develop and prove a model for predicting the lifetime of painted metal components, with a particular emphasis on Colorbond® due to its prominent use throughout Australia. This work continues on from previous developments reported in 2002-059-B No. 12 [1]. Extensions of work included the following research: (1) Experimental proving of the leaching of chromate inhibitors from Colorbond® materials. (2) Updated models for the accumulation of salts and the time of wetness for gutters, based upon field observations. (3) Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy investigations aimed at correlating the corrosion rates of weathered Colorbond® with those predicted by modeling.

Behaviour of image degradation model in multiresolution

Multiresolution techniques are being extensively used in signal processing literature. This paper has two parts, in the first part we derive a relationship between the general degradation model (Y=BX+W) at coarse and fine resolutions. In the second part we develop a signal restoration scheme in a multiresolution framework and demonstrate through experiments that the knowledge of the relationship between the degradation model at different resolutions helps in obtaining computationally efficient restoration scheme.

An integrated rail track degradation model

There has been a worldwide trend to increase axle loads and train speeds. This means that railway track degradation will be accelerated, and track maintenance costs will be increased significantly. There is a need to investigate the consequences of increasing traffic load. The aim of the research is to develop a model for the analysis of physical degradation of railway tracks in response to changes in traffic parameters, especially increased axle loads and train speeds. This research has developed an integrated track degradation model (ITDM) by integrating several models into a comprehensive framework. Mechanistic relationships for track degradation hav~ ?een used wherever possible in each of the models contained in ITDM. This overcc:mes the deficiency of the traditional statistical track models which rely heavily on historical degradation data, which is generally not available in many railway systems. In addition statistical models lack the flexibility of incorporating future changes in traffic patterns or maintenance practices. The research starts with reviewing railway track related studies both in Australia and overseas to develop a comprehensive understanding of track performance under various traffic conditions. Existing railway related models are then examined for their suitability for track degradation analysis for Australian situations. The ITDM model is subsequently developed by modifying suitable existing models, and developing new models where necessary. The ITDM model contains four interrelated submodels for rails, sleepers, ballast and subgrade, and track modulus. The rail submodel is for rail wear analysis and is developed from a theoretical concept. The sleeper submodel is for timber sleepers damage prediction. The submodel is developed by modifying and extending an existing model developed elsewhere. The submodel has also incorporated an analysis for the likelihood of concrete sleeper cracking. The ballast and subgrade submodel is evolved from a concept developed in the USA. Substantial modifications and improvements have been made. The track modulus submodel is developed from a conceptual method. Corrections for more global track conditions have been made. The integration of these submodels into one comprehensive package has enabled the interaction between individual track components to be taken into account. This is done by calculating wheel load distribution with time and updating track conditions periodically in the process of track degradation simulation. A Windows-based computer program ~ssociated with ITDM has also been developed. The program enables the user to carry out analysis of degradation of individual track components and to investigate the inter relationships between these track components and their deterioration. The successful implementation of this research has provided essential information for prediction of increased maintenance as a consequence of railway trackdegradation. The model, having been presented at various conferences and seminars, has attracted wide interest. It is anticipated that the model will be put into practical use among Australian railways, enabling track maintenance planning to be optimized and potentially saving Australian railway systems millions of dollars in operating costs.

A review on degradation models in reliability analysis

With increasingly complex engineering assets and tight economic requirements, asset reliability becomes more crucial in Engineering Asset Management (EAM). Improving the reliability of systems has always been a major aim of EAM. Reliability assessment using degradation data has become a significant approach to evaluate the reliability and safety of critical systems. Degradation data often provide more information than failure time data for assessing reliability and predicting the remnant life of systems. In general, degradation is the reduction in performance, reliability, and life span of assets. Many failure mechanisms can be traced to an underlying degradation process. Degradation phenomenon is a kind of stochastic process; therefore, it could be modelled in several approaches. Degradation modelling techniques have generated a great amount of research in reliability field. While degradation models play a significant role in reliability analysis, there are few review papers on that. This paper presents a review of the existing literature on commonly used degradation models in reliability analysis. The current research and developments in degradation models are reviewed and summarised in this paper. This study synthesises these models and classifies them in certain groups. Additionally, it attempts to identify the merits, limitations, and applications of each model. It provides potential applications of these degradation models in asset health and reliability prediction.

Asset life prediction and maintenance decision-making using a non-linear non-Gaussian state space model

Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.

Latent degradation indicators estimation and prediction : a Monte Carlo approach

Asset health inspections can produce two types of indicators: (1) direct indicators (e.g. the thickness of a brake pad, and the crack depth on a gear) which directly relate to a failure mechanism; and (2) indirect indicators (e.g. the indicators extracted from vibration signals and oil analysis data) which can only partially reveal a failure mechanism. While direct indicators enable more precise references to asset health condition, they are often more difficult to obtain than indirect indicators. The state space model provides an efficient approach to estimating direct indicators by using indirect indicators. However, existing state space models to estimate direct indicators largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires fixed inspection intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This paper proposes a state space model without these assumptions. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate the model parameters and the remaining useful life. These algorithms are evaluated for performance using numerical simulations through MATLAB. The result shows that both the parameters and the remaining useful life are estimated accurately. Finally, the new state space model is used to process vibration and crack depth data from an accelerated test of a gearbox. During this application, the new state space model shows a better fitness result than the state space model with linear and Gaussian assumption.

Development of diagnostic and prognostic algorithms from vacuum circuit breaker restrike review and its validation proposal

The CIGRE WGs A3.20 and A3.24 identify the requirements of simulation tools to predict various stresses during the development and operational phases of medium voltage vacuum circuit breaker (VCB) testing. This paper reviews the modelling methodology [13], VCB models and tools to identify future research. It will include the application of the VCB model for the impending failure of a VCB using electro-magnetic-transient-program with diagnostic and prognostic algorithm development. The methodology developed for a VCB degradation model is to modify the dielectric equation to cover a restriking period of more than 1 millimetre.

Differential susceptibility to performance degradation across categories of facial emotion - a model confirmation

Patients with a number of psychiatric and neuropathological conditions demonstrate problems in recognising facial expressions of emotion. Research indicating that patients with schizophrenia perform more poorly in the recognition of negative valence facial stimuli than positive valence stimuli has been interpreted as evidence of a negative emotion specific deficit. An alternate explanation rests in the psychometric properties of the stimulus materials. This model suggests that the pattern of impairment observed in schizophrenia may reflect initial discrepancies in task difficulty between stimulus categories, which are not apparent in healthy subjects because of ceiling effects. This hypothesis is tested, by examining the performance of healthy subjects in a facial emotion categorisation task with three levels of stimulus resolution. Results confirm the predictions of the model, showing that performance degrades differentially across emotion categories, with the greatest deterioration to negative valence stimuli. In the light of these results, a possible methodology for detecting emotion specific deficits in clinical samples is discussed.

The synthesis and application of novel profluorescent nitroxides as probes for polymer degradation

This PhD project has expanded the knowledge in the area of profluorescent nitroxides with regard to the synthesis and characterisations of novel profluorescent nitroxide probes as well as physical characterisation of the probe molecules in various polymer/physical environments. The synthesis of the first example of an azaphenalene-based fused aromatic nitroxide TMAO, [1,1,3,3-tetramethyl-2,3-dihydro-2-azaphenalen-2-yloxyl, was described. This novel nitroxide possesses some of the structural rigidity of the isoindoline class of nitroxides, as well as some properties akin to TEMPO nitroxides. Additionally, the integral aromatic ring imparts fluorescence that is switched on by radical scavenging reactions of the nitroxide, which makes it a sensitive probe for polymer degradation. In addition to the parent TMAO, 5 other azaphenalene derivatives were successfully synthesised. This new class of nitroxide was expected to have interesting redox properties when the structure was investigated by high-level ab initio molecular orbitals theory. This was expected to have implications with biological relevance as the calculated redox potentials for the azaphenalene ring class would make them potent antioxidant compounds. The redox potentials of 25 cyclic nitroxides from four different structural classes (pyrroline, piperidine, isoindoline and azaphenalene) were determined by cyclic voltammetry in acetonitrile. It was shown that potentials related to the one electron processes of the nitroxide were influenced by the type of ring system, ring substituents or groups surrounding the moiety. Favourable comparisons were found between theoretical and experimental potentials for pyrroline, piperidine and isoindoline ring classes. Substitution of these ring classes, were correctly calculated to have a small yet predictable effect on the potentials. The redox potentials of the azaphenalene ring class were underestimated by the calculations in all cases by at least a factor of two. This is believed to be due to another process influencing the redox potentials of the azaphenalene ring class which is not taken into account by the theoretical model. It was also possible to demonstrate the use of both azaphenalene and isoindoline nitroxides as additives for monitoring radical mediated damage that occurs in polypropylene as well as in more commercially relevant polyester resins. Polymer sample doped with nitroxide were exposed to both thermo-and photo-oxidative conditions with all nitroxides showing a protective effect. It was found that isoindoline nitroxides were able to indicate radical formation in polypropylene aged at elevated temperatures via fluorescence build-up. The azaphenalene nitroxide TMAO showed no such build-up of fluorescence. This was believed to be due to the more labile bond between the nitroxide and macromolecule and the protection may occur through a classical Denisov cycle, as is expected for commercially available HAS units. Finally, A new profluorescent dinitroxide, BTMIOA (9,10-bis(1,1,3,3- tetramethylisoindolin-2-yloxyl-5-yl)anthracene), was synthesised and shown to be a powerful probe for detecting changes during the initial stages of thermo-oxidative degradation of polypropylene. This probe, which contains a 9,10-diphenylanthracene core linked to two nitroxides, possesses strongly suppressed fluorescence due to quenching by the two nitroxide groups. This molecule also showed the greatest protective effect on thermo-oxidativly aged polypropylene. Most importantly, BTMIOA was found to be a valuable tool for imaging and mapping free-radical generation in polypropylene using fluorescence microscopy.

Evaluation of polycaprolactone scaffold degradation for 6 months in vitro and in vivo

The use of polycaprolactone (PCL) as a biomaterial, especially in the fields of drug delivery and tissue engineering, has enjoyed significant growth. Understanding how such a device or scaffold eventually degrades in vivo is paramount as the defect site regenerates and remodels. Degradation studies of three-dimensional PCL and PCL-based composite scaffolds were conducted in vitro (in phosphate buffered saline) and in vivo (rabbit model). Results up to 6 months are reported. All samples recorded virtually no molecular weight changes after 6 months, with a maximum mass loss of only about 7% from the PCL-composite scaffolds degraded in vivo, and a minimum of 1% from PCL scaffolds. Overall, crystallinity increased slightly because of the effects of polymer recrystallization. This was also a contributory factor for the observed stiffness increment in some of the samples, while only the PCL-composite scaffold registered a decrease. Histological examination of the in vivo samples revealed good biocompatibility, with no adverse host tissue reactions up to 6 months. Preliminary results of medical-grade PCL scaffolds, which were implanted for 2 years in a critical-sized rabbit calvarial defect site, are also reported here and support our scaffold design goal for gradual and late molecular weight decreases combined with excellent long-term biocompatibility and bone regeneration. (C) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res 90A: 906-919, 2009

Integrated Diagnosis and Prognosis Model for High Pressure LNG Pump

In condition-based maintenance (CBM), effective diagnostics and prognostics are essential tools for maintenance engineers to identify imminent fault and to predict the remaining useful life before the components finally fail. This enables remedial actions to be taken in advance and reschedules production if necessary. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on historical failure knowledge embedded in the closed loop diagnostic and prognostic system. The technique uses the Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier for both fault diagnosis and evaluation of health stages of machine degradation. To validate the feasibility of the proposed model, the five different level data of typical four faults from High Pressure Liquefied Natural Gas (HP-LNG) pumps were used for multi-class fault diagnosis. In addition, two sets of impeller-rub data were analysed and employed to predict the remnant life of pump based on estimation of health state. The results obtained were very encouraging and showed that the proposed prognosis system has the potential to be used as an estimation tool for machine remnant life prediction in real life industrial applications.

Infrared spectroscopic investigation of the effects of titania photocatalyst on the degradation of linear low density polyethylene film for commercial applications

There is a need in industry for a commodity polyethylene film with controllable degradation properties that will degrade in an environmentally neutral way, for applications such as shopping bags and packaging film. Additives such as starch have been shown to accelerate the degradation of plastic films, however control of degradation is required so that the film will retain its mechanical properties during storage and use, and then degrade when no longer required. By the addition of a photocatalyst it is hoped that polymer film will breakdown with exposure to sunlight. Furthermore, it is desired that the polymer film will degrade in the dark, after a short initial exposure to sunlight. Research has been undertaken into the photo- and thermo-oxidative degradation processes of 25 ìm thick LLDPE (linear low density polyethylene) film containing titania from different manufacturers. Films were aged in a suntest or in an oven at 50 °C, and the oxidation product formation was followed using IR spectroscopy. Degussa P25, Kronos 1002, and various organic-modified and doped titanias of the types Satchleben Hombitan and Hunstsman Tioxide incorporated into LLDPE films were assessed for photoactivity. Degussa P25 was found to be the most photoactive with UVA and UVC exposure. Surface modification of titania was found to reduce photoactivity. Crystal phase is thought to be among the most important factors when assessing the photoactivity of titania as a photocatalyst for degradation. Pre-irradiation with UVA or UVC for 24 hours of the film containing 3% Degussa P25 titania prior to aging in an oven resulted in embrittlement in ca. 200 days. The multivariate data analysis technique PCA (principal component analysis) was used as an exploratory tool to investigate the IR spectral data. Oxidation products formed in similar relative concentrations across all samples, confirming that titania was catalysing the oxidation of the LLDPE film without changing the oxidation pathway. PCA was also employed to compare rates of degradation in different films. PCA enabled the discovery of water vapour trapped inside cavities formed by oxidation by titania particles. Imaging ATR/FTIR spectroscopy with high lateral resolution was used in a novel experiment to examine the heterogeneous nature of oxidation of a model polymer compound caused by the presence of titania particles. A model polymer containing Degussa P25 titania was solvent cast onto the internal reflection element of the imaging ATR/FTIR and the oxidation under UVC was examined over time. Sensitisation of 5 ìm domains by titania resulted in areas of relatively high oxidation product concentration. The suitability of transmission IR with a synchrotron light source to the study of polymer film oxidation was assessed as the Australian Synchrotron in Melbourne, Australia. Challenges such as interference fringes and poor signal-to-noise ratio need to be addressed before this can become a routine technique.