A Nobel Prize for governance and institutions : Oliver Williamson and Elinor Ostrom

This paper reviews the 2009 Nobel Prize in Economics jointly awarded to Oliver Williamson for his work on governance in organizations and the boundaries of the firm, and to Elinor Ostrom for her work on the governance of common pool resources. We review the careers and the research contributions of Williamson and Ostrom to the theory and analysis of economic institutions of governance. Both winners of this Prize for 'economic governance' are thoroughly deserved, yet like the Hayek- Myrdal Prize of 1974 their respective approaches, methods and findings are almost diametrically opposed. Williamson offers a top-down contracts-based solution to the incentive problems of opportunism in corporate governance, whereas Ostrom offers a bottom-up communication-based solution to the governance opportunities of community resources. We offer some critical comments on Williamson's analytic work and discussion of the potential for further application of Ostrom's case-study based experimental methodology. We conclude with a suggested third nominee to make better sense of how these two great scholars' works fit together, namely George Richardson'

Econometric fellows and Nobel Laureates in economics

An academic award is method by which peers offer recognition of intellectual efforts. In this paper we take a purely descriptive look at the relationship between becoming a Fellow of the Econometric Society and receiving the Nobel Prize in economics. We discover some interesting aspects: of all 69 Nobel Prize Laureates between 1969 and 2011, only 9 of them were not also Fellows. Moreover, the proportion of future novel winners among the Fellows has been quite high throughout time and a large share of researchers who became Fellows between the 1930s and 1950s became Nobel Laureates at a later stage. On average, researchers became Fellows relatively early in their career (14.9 years after their PhD) and those who were subsequently made Nobel Laureates became Fellows earlier than other researchers. Interestingly, Harvard and MIT have been the dominant PhD granting institutions to generate Fellows and Nobel Laureates in the past.

Awards before and after the Nobel Prize : a Matthew effect and/or a ticket to one's own funeral?

The primary aim of this descriptive exploration of scientists’ life cycle award patterns is to evaluate whether awards breed further awards and identify researcher experiences after reception of the Nobel Prize. To achieve this goal, we collected data on the number of awards received each year for 50 years before and after Nobel Prize reception by all 1901–2000 Nobel laureates in physics, chemistry, and medicine or physiology. Our results indicate an increasing rate of awards before Nobel reception, reaching the summit precisely in the year of the Nobel Prize. After this pinnacle year, awards drop sharply. This result is confirmed by separate analyses of three different disciplines and by a random-effects negative binomial regression model. Such an effect, however, does not emerge for more recent Nobel laureates (1971–2000). In addition, Nobelists in medicine or physiology generate more awards shortly before and after prize reception, whereas laureates in chemistry attract more awards as time progresses.

The implications of educational and methodological background for the career success of Nobel Laureates : an investigation of major awards

Nobel laureates have achieved the highest recognition in academia, reaching the boundaries of human knowledge and understanding. Owing to past research, we have a good understanding of the career patterns behind their performance. Yet, we have only limited understanding of the factors driving their recognition with respect to major institutionalized scientific honours. We therefore look at the award life cycle achievements of the 1901–2000 Nobel laureates in physics, chemistry, and physiology or medicine. The results show that Nobelists with a theoretical orientation achieved more awards than laureates with an empirical orientation. Moreover, it seems their educational background shapes their future recognition. Researchers educated in Great Britain and the US tend to attract more awards than other Nobelists, although there are career pattern differences. Among those, laureates educated at Cambridge or Harvard are more successful in Chemistry, those from Columbia and Cambridge excel in Physics, while Columbia educated laureates dominate in Physiology or Medicine.

Do Nobel laureates change their patterns of collaboration following prize reception?

We investigate whether Nobel laureates’ collaborative activities undergo a negative change following prize reception by using publication records of 198 Nobel laureates and analyzing their coauthorship patterns before and after the Nobel Prize. The results overall indicate less collaboration with new coauthors post award than pre award. Nobel laureates are more loyal to collaborations that started before the Prize: looking at coauthorship drop-out rates, we find that these differ significantly between coauthorships that started before the Prize and coauthorships after the Prize. We also find that the greater the intensity of pre-award cooperation and the longer the period of pre-award collaboration, the higher the probability of staying in the coauthor network after the award, implying a higher loyalty to the Nobel laureate.

The first cut is the deepest: Repeated interactions of co-authorship and academic productivity in Nobel laureate teams

Despite much in-depth investigation of factors influencing the co-authorship evolution in various scientific fields, our knowledge about how efficiency or creativity is linked to the longevity of collaborative relationships remains very limited. We explore what Nobel laureates’ co-authorship patterns reveal about the nature of scientific collaborations looking at the intensity and success of scientific collaborations across fields and across laureates’ collaborative lifecycles in physics, chemistry, and physiology/medicine. We find that more collaboration with the same researcher is actually no better for advancing creativity: publications produced early in a sequence of repeated collaborations with a given coauthor tend to be published better and cited more than papers that come later in the collaboration with the same coauthor. Our results indicate that scientific collaboration involves conceptual complementarities that may erode over a sequence of repeated interactions.

Mirror, mirror on the wall, who is the happiest of them all?

This paper turns Snow-White's magic mirror onto recent economics Nobel Prize winners, top economists and happiness researchers, and through the eyes of the 'man in the street' seeks to determine who the happiest academic is. The study not only provides a clear answer to this question but also unveils who is the ladies' man and who is the sweetheart of the aged. It also explores the extent to which information matters and whether individuals' self-reported happiness affects their perceptions about the happiness of these superstars in economics.

Security metrics for object-oriented designs

Several studies have developed metrics for software quality attributes of object-oriented designs such as reusability and functionality. However, metrics which measure the quality attribute of information security have received little attention. Moreover, existing security metrics measure either the system from a high level (i.e. the whole system’s level) or from a low level (i.e. the program code’s level). These approaches make it hard and expensive to discover and fix vulnerabilities caused by software design errors. In this work, we focus on the design of an object-oriented application and define a number of information security metrics derivable from a program’s design artifacts. These metrics allow software designers to discover and fix security vulnerabilities at an early stage, and help compare the potential security of various alternative designs. In particular, we present security metrics based on composition, coupling, extensibility, inheritance, and the design size of a given object-oriented, multi-class program from the point of view of potential information flow.

A lesson in tension yet to be taut : a review

NOBEL prize-winning British writer Harold Pinter is best known for his social commentaries and for dark, sometimes violent "comedies of menace" that capture the cruelty at the heart of human relationships. It has been a while since a Pinter play was on the Brisbane stage, and it is exciting to see one of his lesser known early works, Betrayal, as part of Queensland Theatre Company's session. Betrayal moves backwards from a potentially scandalous moment. In a pub one night, Emma tells Jerry that his best friend Robert is divorcing her. Robert has been unfaithful. And, what's more, Robert now knows about their lengthy affair. What follows is a series of scenes that look back at the stages of that affair and the secrets that have lain unspoken at the heart of their comfortable middle-class lives for so long. Betrayal is characterised by the sparsity of action and language, dark humour, and sudden outbreaks of seemingly excessive cruelty that are a trademark of Pinter's writing for the theatre.

P147 Deprivation is associated with increased healthcare utilisation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Deprivation assessed using the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) has been shown to be an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; COPD (Collins et al, 2010). IMD combines a number of economic and social issues (eg, health, education, employment) into one overall deprivation score, the higher the score the higher an individual's deprivation. Whilst malnutrition in COPD has been linked to increased healthcare use it is not clear if deprivation is also independently associated. This study aimed to investigate the influence of deprivation on 1-year healthcare utilisation in outpatients with COPD. IMD was established in 424 outpatients with COPD according to the geographical location for each patient's address (postcode) and related to their healthcare use in the year post-date screened (Nobel et al, 2008). Patients were routinely screened in outpatient clinics for malnutrition using the ‘Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool’, ‘MUST’ (Elia 2003); mean age 73 (SD 9.9) years; body mass index 25.8 (SD 6.3) kg/m2 with healthcare use collected 1 year from screening (Abstract P147 Table 1). Deprivation assessed using IMD (mean 15.9; SD 11.1) was found to be a significant predictor for the frequency and duration of emergency hospital admissions as well as the duration of elective hospital admission. Deprivation was also linked to reduced secondary care outpatient appointment attendance but not an increase in failure to attend and deprivation was not associated with increased disease severity, as classified by the GOLD criteria (p=0.580). COPD outpatients residing in more deprived areas experience increased hospitalisation rates but decreased outpatient appointment attendance. The underlying reason behind this disparity in healthcare use requires further investigation.

The influence of smoking status on malnutrition risk and 1-year mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Introduction:  Smoking status in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with a low body mass index (BMI) and reduced mid-arm muscle circumference (Cochrane & Afolabi, 2004). Individuals with COPD identified as malnourished have also been found to be twice as likely to die within 1 year compared to non-malnourished patients (Collins et al., 2010). Although malnutrition is both preventable and treatable, it is not clear what influence current smoking status, another modifiable risk factor, has on malnutrition risk. The current study aimed to establish the influence of smoking status on malnutrition risk and 1-year mortality in outpatients with COPD. Methods:  A prospective nutritional screening survey was carried out between July 2008 and May 2009 at a large teaching hospital (Southampton General Hospital) and a smaller community hospital within Hampshire (Lymington New Forest Hospital). In total, 424 outpatients with a diagnosis of COPD were routinely screened using the ‘Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool’, ‘MUST’ (Elia, 2003); 222 males, 202 females; mean (SD) age 73 (9.9) years; mean (SD) BMI 25.9 (6.4) kg m−2. Smoking status on the date of screening was obtained for 401 of the outpatients. Severity of COPD was assessed using the GOLD criteria, and social deprivation determined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (Nobel et al., 2008). Results:  The overall prevalence of malnutrition (medium + high risk) was 22%, with 32% of current smokers at risk (who accounted for 19% of the total COPD population). In comparison, 19% of nonsmokers and ex-smokers were likely to be malnourished [odds ratio, 1.965; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.133–3.394; P = 0.015]. Smoking status remained an independent risk factor for malnutrition even after adjustment for age, social deprivation and disease-severity (odds ratio, 2.048; 95% CI, 1.085–3.866; P = 0.027) using binary logistic regression. After adjusting for age, disease severity, social deprivation, smoking status, malnutrition remained a significant predictor of 1-year mortality [odds ratio (medium + high risk versus low risk), 2.161; 95% CI, 1.021–4.573; P = 0.044], whereas smoking status did not (odds ratio for smokers versus ex-smokers + nonsmokers was 1.968; 95% CI, 0.788–4.913; P = 0.147). Discussion:  This study highlights the potential importance of combined nutritional support and smoking cessation in order to treat malnutrition. The close association between smoking status and malnutrition risk in COPD suggests that smoking is an important consideration in the nutritional management of malnourished COPD outpatients. Conclusions:  Smoking status in COPD outpatients is a significant independent risk factor for malnutrition and a weaker (nonsignificant) predictor of 1-year mortality. Malnutrition significantly predicted 1 year mortality. References:  Cochrane, W.J. & Afolabi, O.A. (2004) Investigation into the nutritional status, dietary intake and smoking habits of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. J. Hum. Nutr. Diet.17, 3–11. Collins, P.F., Stratton, R.J., Kurukulaaratchym R., Warwick, H. Cawood, A.L. & Elia, M. (2010) ‘MUST’ predicts 1-year survival in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Clin. Nutr.5, 17. Elia, M. (Ed) (2003) The ‘MUST’ Report. BAPEN. http://www.bapen.org.uk (accessed on March 30 2011). Nobel, M., McLennan, D., Wilkinson, K., Whitworth, A. & Barnes, H. (2008) The English Indices of Deprivation 2007. http://www.communities.gov.uk (accessed on March 30 2011).

Deprivation is an independent predictor of 1-year mortality in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Deprivation is linked to increased incidence in a number of chronic diseases but its relationship to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is uncertain despite suggestions that the socioeconomic gradient seen in COPD is as great, if not greater, than any other disease (Prescott and Vestbo).1 There is also a need to take into account the confounding effects of malnutrition which have been shown to be independently linked to increased mortality (Collins et al).2 The current study investigated the influence of social deprivation on 1-year survival rates in COPD outpatients, independently of malnutrition. 424 outpatients with COPD were routinely screened for malnutrition risk using the ‘Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool’; ‘MUST’ (Elia),3 between July and May 2009; 222 males and 202 females; mean age 73 (SD 9.9) years; body mass index 25.8 (SD 6.3) kg/m2. Each individual's deprivation was calculated using the index of multiple deprivation (IMD) which was established according to the geographical location of each patient's address (postcode). IMD includes a number of indicators covering economic, housing and social issues (eg, health, education and employment) into a single deprivation score (Nobel et al).4 The lower the IMD score, the lower an individual's deprivation. The IMD was assigned to each outpatient at the time of screening and related to1-year mortality from the date screened. Outpatients who died within 1-year of screening were significantly more likely to reside within a deprived postcode (IMD 19.7±SD 13.1 vs 15.4±SD 10.7; p=0.023, OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.06) than those that did not die. Deprivation remained a significant independent risk factor for 1-year mortality even when adjusted for malnutrition as well as age, gender and disease severity (binary logistic regression; p=0.008, OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.07). Deprivation was not associated with disease-severity (p=0.906) or body mass index, kg/m2 (p=0.921) using ANOVA. This is the first study to show that deprivation, assessed using IMD, is associated with increased 1-year mortality in outpatients with COPD independently of malnutrition, age and disease severity. Deprivation should be considered in the targeted management of these patients.

Suspected child abuse and neglect reporting behaviour

Executuve Summary Background and Aims Child abuse and neglect is a tragedy within our community, with over 10,000 substantiated reports of abuse and neglect in Queensland in the past year. The considerable consequences of child abuse and neglect are far-reaching, substantial and can be fatal. The reporting of suspicions of child abuse or neglect is often the first step in preventing further abuse or neglect. In the State of Queensland, medical practitioners are mandated by law to report their suspicions of child abuse and neglect. However, despite this mandate many still do not report their suspicions. A 1998 study indicated that 43% of medical practitioners had, at some time, made a conscious decision to not report suspected abuse or neglect (Van Haeringen, Dadds & Armstrong, 1998). The aim of this study was to gain a better understanding of beliefs about reporting suspected child abuse and neglect and the barriers to reporting suspected abuse and neglect by medical practitioners and parents and students. The findings have the potential to inform the training and education of members of the community who have a shared responsibility to protect the wellbeing of its most vulnerable members. Method In one of the largest studies of reporting behaviour in relation to suspected child abuse and neglect in Australia, we examined and compared medical practitioners’ responses with members of the community, namely parents and students. We surveyed 91 medical practitioners and 214 members of the community (102 parents and 112 students) regarding their beliefs and reporting behaviour related to suspected child abuse and neglect. We also examined reasons for not reporting suspected abuse or neglect, as well as awareness of responsibilities and the appropriate reporting procedures. To obtain such information, participants anonymously completed a comprehensive questionnaire using items from previous studies of reporting attitudes and behaviour. Executive Summary Abused Child Trust Report August 2003 5 Findings Key findings include: • The majority of medical practitioners (97%) were aware of their duty to report suspected abuse and neglect and believed they had a professional and ethical duty to do so. • A majority of parents (82%) and students (68%) also believed that they had a professional and ethical duty to report suspected abuse and neglect. • In accord with their statutory duty to report suspected abuse and neglect, 69% of medical practitioners had made a report at some point. • Sixteen percent of parents and 9% of students surveyed indicated that they had reported their suspicions of neglect and abuse. • The most endorsed belief associated with not reporting suspected child abuse and neglect was that, ‘unpleasant events would follow reporting’. • Over a quarter of medical practitioners (26%) admitted to making a decision not to report their suspicions of child abuse or neglect on at least one occasion. • Compared with previous research, there has been a decline in the number of medical practitioners who decided not to report suspected abuse or neglect from 43% (Van Haeringen et al., 1998) to 26% in the current study. • Fourteen percent of parents and 15% of students surveyed had also chosen not to report a case of suspected abuse or neglect. • Attitudes that most strongly influenced the decision to report or not report suspected abuse or neglect differed between groups (medical practitioners, parents, or students). A belief that, ‘the abuse was a single incident’ was the best predictor of non-reporting by medical practitioners, while having ‘no time to follow-up the report’ or failing to be ‘convinced of evidence of abuse’ best predicted failure to report abuse by students. A range of beliefs predicted non-reporting by parents, including the beliefs that reporting suspected abuse was ‘not their responsibility’ and ‘knowing the child had retracted their statement’. Conclusions Of major concern is that approximately 25% of medical practitioners with a mandated responsibility to report, as well as some members of the general public, revealed that they have suspected child neglect or abuse but have made the decision not to report their suspicions. Parents and students perceived the general community as having responsibility for reporting suspicions of abuse or neglect. Despite this perception, they felt that lodging a report may be overly demanding in terms of time and they had the confidence in their ability to identify child abuse and neglect. An explanation for medical practitioners deciding not to report may be based upon their optimistic belief that suspected abuse or neglect was a single incident. Our findings may best be understood from the ‘inflation of optimism’ hypothesis put forward by the Nobel Laureate, Daniel Kahneman. He suggests that in spite of rational evidence, human beings tend to make judgements based on an optimistic view rather than engaging in a rational decision-making process. In this case, despite past behaviour of abuse or neglect being the best predictor of future behaviour, medical practitioners have taken an optimistic view, choosing to believe that their suspicion of child abuse or neglect represents a single incident. The clear implication of findings in the current research is the need for the members of the general community and medical practitioners to be better appraised of the consequences of their decision-making in relation to suspicionsof child abuse and neglect. Finally findings from parents and students relating to their reporting behaviour suggest that members of the larger community represent an untapped resourcewho might, with appropriate awareness, play a more significant role in theidentification and reporting of suspected child abuse and neglect.

Graphene nanocomposites

Graphene, one of the allotropes (diamond, carbon nanotube, and fullerene) of carbon, is a monolayer of honeycomb lattice of carbon atoms discovered in 2004. The Nobel Prize in Physics 2010 was awarded to Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov for their ground breaking experiments on the twodimensional graphene [1]. Since its discovery, the research communities have shown a lot of interest in this novel material owing to its unique properties. As shown in Figure 1, the number of publications on graphene has dramatically increased in recent years. It has been confirmed that graphene possesses very peculiar electrical properties such as anomalous quantum hall effect, and high electron mobility at room temperature (250000 cm2/Vs). Graphene is also one of the stiffest (modulus ~1 TPa) and strongest (strength ~100 GPa) materials. In addition, it has exceptional thermal conductivity (5000 Wm-1K-1). Based on these exceptional properties, graphene has found its applications in various fields such as field effect devices, sensors, electrodes, solar cells, energy storage devices and nanocomposites. Only adding 1 volume per cent graphene into polymer (e.g. polystyrene), the nanocomposite has a conductivity of ~0.1 Sm-1 [2], sufficient for many electrical applications. Significant improvement in strength, fracture toughness and fatigue strength has also been achieved in these nanocomposites [3-5]. Therefore, graphene-polymer nanocomposites have demonstrated a great potential to serve as next generation functional or structural materials.

Numerical Modelling of Mechanical Behaviour of Graphene

Graphene, one of the allotropes (diamond, carbon nanotube, and fullerene) of element carbon, is a monolayer of honeycomb lattice of carbon atoms, which was discovered in 2004. The Nobel Prize in Physics 2010 was awarded to Andre Geim and Konstantin Novoselov for their ground breaking work on the two-dimensional (2D) graphene [1]. Since its discovery, the research communities have shown a lot of interest in this novel material owing to its intriguing electrical, mechanical and thermal properties. It has been confirmed that grapheme possesses very peculiar electrical properties such as anomalous quantum hall effect, and high electron mobility at room temperature (250000 cm2/Vs). Graphene also has exceptional mechanical properties. It is one of the stiffest (modulus ~1 TPa) and strongest (strength ~100 GPa) materials. In addition, it has exceptional thermal conductivity (5000 Wm-1K-1). Due to these exceptional properties, graphene has demonstrated its potential for broad applications in micro and nano devices, various sensors, electrodes, solar cells and energy storage devices and nanocomposites. In particular, the excellent mechanical properties of graphene make it more attractive for development next generation nanocomposites and hybrid materials...