Sufficiently informative measurements for stability of approximate conditional mean estimates

This paper establishes sufficient conditions to bound the error in perturbed conditional mean estimates derived from a perturbed model (only the scalar case is shown in this paper but a similar result is expected to hold for the vector case). The results established here extend recent stability results on approximating information state filter recursions to stability results on the approximate conditional mean estimates. The presented filter stability results provide bounds for a wide variety of model error situations.

Power buffer with model predictive control for stability of vehicular power systems with constant power loads

Electrification of vehicular systems has gained increased momentum in recent years with particular attention to constant power loads (CPLs). Since a CPL potentially threatens system stability, stability analysis of hybrid electric vehicle with CPLs becomes necessary. A new power buffer configuration with battery is introduced to mitigate the effect of instability caused by CPLs. Model predictive control (MPC) is applied to regulate the power buffer to decouple source and load dynamics. Moreover, MPC provides an optimal tradeoff between modification of load impedance, variation of dc-link voltage and battery current ripples. This is particularly important during transients or starting of system faults, since battery response is not very fast. Optimal tradeoff becomes even more significant when considering low-cost power buffer without battery. This paper analyzes system models for both voltage swell and voltage dip faults. Furthermore, a dual mode MPC algorithm is implemented in real time offering improved stability. A comprehensive set of experimental results is included to verify the efficacy of the proposed power buffer.

Modeling multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with the double smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH Model

In this paper, we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC) GARCH model extends the smooth transition conditional correlation (STCC) GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2005) by including another variable according to which the correlations change smoothly between states of constant correlations. A Lagrange multiplier test is derived to test the constancy of correlations against the DSTCC-GARCH model, and another one to test for another transition in the STCC-GARCH framework. In addition, other specification tests, with the aim of aiding the model building procedure, are considered. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided. Applying the model to the stock and bond futures data, we discover that the correlation pattern between them has dramatically changed around the turn of the century. The model is also applied to a selection of world stock indices, and we find evidence for an increasing degree of integration in the capital markets.

Coordinated tuning of DFIG-based wind turbines and batteries using bacteria foraging technique for maintaining constant grid power output

This paper proposes the use of battery energy storage (BES) system for the grid-connected doubly fed induction generator (DFIG). The BES would help in storing/releasing additional power in case of higher/lower wind speed to maintain constant grid power. The DC link capacitor is replaced with the BES system in a DFIG-based wind turbine to achieve the above-mentioned goal. The control scheme is modified and the co-ordinated tuning of the associated controllers to enhance the damping of the oscillatory modes is presented using bacterial foraging technique. The results from eigenvalue analysis and the time domain simulation studies are presented to elucidate the effectiveness of the BES systems in maintaining the grid stability under normal operation.

Distamycin A affects the stability of NF-kappaB p50-DNA complexes in a sequence-dependent manner

The effect of two different DNA minor groove binding molecules, Hoechst 33258 and distamycin A, on the binding kinetics of NF-κB p50 to three different specific DNA sequences was studied at various salt concentrations. Distamycin A was shown to significantly increase the dissociation rate constant of p50 from the sequences PRDII (5′-GGGAAATTCC-3′) and Ig-κ B (5′-GGGACTTTCC-3′) but had a negligible effect on the dissociation from the palindromic target-κB binding site (5′-GGGAATTCCC-3′). By comparison, the effect of Hoechst 33258 on binding of p50 to each sequence was found to be minimal. The dissociation rates for the protein–DNA complexes increased at higher potassium chloride concentrations for the PRDII and Ig-κB binding motifs and this effect was magnified by distamycin A. In contrast, p50 bound to the palindromic target-κB site with a much higher intrinsic affinity and exhibited a significantly reduced salt dependence of binding over the ionic strength range studied, retaining a KD of less than 10 pM at 150 mM KCl. Our results demonstrate that the DNA binding kinetics of p50 and their salt dependence is strongly sequence-dependent and, in addition, that the binding of p50 to DNA can be influenced by the addition of minor groove-binding drugs in a sequence-dependent manner.

Buffer scheme with battery energy storage capability for enhancement of network transient stability and load ride-through

This paper examines a buffer scheme to mitigate the negative impacts of power-conditioned loads on network voltage and transient stabilities. The scheme is based on the use of battery energy-storage systems in the buffers. The storage systems ensure that protected loads downstream of the buffers can ride through upstream voltage sags and swells. Also, by controlling the buffers to operate in either constant impedance or constant power modes, power is absorbed or injected by the storage systems. The scheme thereby regulates the rotor-angle deviations of generators and enhances network transient stability. A computational method is described in which the capacity of the storage systems is determined to achieve simultaneously the above dual objectives of load ride-through and stability enhancement. The efficacy of the resulting scheme is demonstrated through numerical examples.

A loop cancellation based active damping solution for constant power instability in vehicular power systems

In recent years, electric propulsion systems have increasingly been used in land, sea and air vehicles. The vehicular power systems are usually loaded with tightly regulated power electronic converters which tend to draw constant power. Since the constant power loads (CPLs) impose negative incremental resistance characteristics on the feeder system, they pose a potential threat to the stability of vehicular power systems. This effect becomes more significant in the presence of distribution lines between source and load in large vehicular power systems such as electric ships and more electric aircrafts. System transients such as sudden drop of converter side loads or increase of constant power requirement can cause complete system instability. Most of the existing research work focuses on the modeling and stabilization of DC vehicular power systems with CPLs. Only a few solutions are proposed to stabilize AC vehicular power systems with non-negligible distribution lines and CPLs. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel loop cancellation technique to eliminate constant power instability in AC vehicular power systems with a theoretically unbounded system stability region. Analysis is carried out on system stability with the proposed method and simulation results are presented to validate its effectiveness.

Virtual resistance based active damping solution for constant power instability in AC microgrids

With ever-increasing share of power electronic loads constant power instability is becoming a significant issue in microgrids, especially when they operate in the islanding mode. Transient conditions like resistive load-shedding or sudden increase of constant power loads (CPL) might destabilize the whole system. Modeling and stability analysis of AC microgrids with CPLs have already been discussed in literature. However, no effective solutions are provided to stabilize this kind of system. Therefore, this paper proposes a virtual resistance based active damping method to eliminate constant power instability in AC microgrids. Advantages and limitations of the proposed method are also discussed in detail. Simulation results are presented to validate the proposed active damping solution.

Modeling conditional correlations of asset returns : a smooth transition approach

In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM–test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five frequently traded stocks in the S&P 500 stock index completes the paper.

Factors influencing robustness and effectiveness of conditional random fields in active learning frameworks

Active learning approaches reduce the annotation cost required by traditional supervised approaches to reach the same effectiveness by actively selecting informative instances during the learning phase. However, effectiveness and robustness of the learnt models are influenced by a number of factors. In this paper we investigate the factors that affect the effectiveness, more specifically in terms of stability and robustness, of active learning models built using conditional random fields (CRFs) for information extraction applications. Stability, defined as a small variation of performance when small variation of the training data or a small variation of the parameters occur, is a major issue for machine learning models, but even more so in the active learning framework which aims to minimise the amount of training data required. The factors we investigate are a) the choice of incremental vs. standard active learning, b) the feature set used as a representation of the text (i.e., morphological features, syntactic features, or semantic features) and c) Gaussian prior variance as one of the important CRFs parameters. Our empirical findings show that incremental learning and the Gaussian prior variance lead to more stable and robust models across iterations. Our study also demonstrates that orthographical, morphological and contextual features as a group of basic features play an important role in learning effective models across all iterations.

On the benefits of equicorrelation for portfolio allocation

The importance of modelling correlation has long been recognised in the field of portfolio management, with largedimensional multivariate problems increasingly becoming the focus of research. This paper provides a straightforward and commonsense approach toward investigating a number of models used to generate forecasts of the correlation matrix for large-dimensional problems.We find evidence in favour of assuming equicorrelation across various portfolio sizes, particularly during times of crisis. During periods of market calm, however, the suitability of the constant conditional correlation model cannot be discounted, especially for large portfolios. A portfolio allocation problem is used to compare forecasting methods. The global minimum variance portfolio and Model Confidence Set are used to compare methods, while portfolio weight stability and relative economic value are also considered.