Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

The nature and extent of policing alcohol related crime and reducing violence in and around late night entertainment areas

The misuse of alcohol is well documented in Australia and has been associated with disorders and harms that often require police attention. The extent of alcohol-related incidents requiring police attention has been recorded as substantial in some Australian cities (Arro, Crook, & Fenton, 1992; Davey & French, 1995; Ireland & Thommeny, 1993). A significant proportion of harmful drinking occurs in and around licensed premises (Jochelson, 1997; Stockwell, Masters, Phillips, Daly, Gahegan, Midford, & Philp, 1998; Borges, Cherpitel, & Rosovsky, 1998) and most of these incidents are not reported to police (Bryant & Williams, 2000; Lister, Hobbs, Hall, & Winlow, 2000). Alcohol-related incidents have also been found to be concentrated in certain places at certain times (Jochelson, 1997) and therefore manipulating the context in which these incidents occur may provide a means to prevent and reduce the harm associated with alcohol misuse. One of the major objectives of the present program of research was to investigate the occurrence and resource impact of alcohol-related incidents on operational (general duties) policing across a large geographical area. A second objective of the thesis was to examine the characteristics and temporal/spatial dynamics of police attended alcohol incidents in the context of Place Based theories of crime. It was envisaged that this approach would reveal the patterns of the most prevalent offences and demonstrate the relevance of Place Based theories of crime to understanding these patterns. In addition, the role of alcohol, time and place were also explored in order to examine the association between non criminal traffic offences and other types of criminal offences. A final objective of the thesis was to examine the impact of a situational crime prevention strategy that had been initiated to reduce the violence and disorder associated with late-night liquor trading premises. The program of research in this doctorate thesis has been undertaken through the presentation of published papers. The research was conducted in three stages which produced six manuscripts, five of which were submitted to peer reviewed journals and one that was published in a peer reviewed conference proceedings. Stage One included two studies (Studies 1 & 2) both of which involved a cross sectional approach to examine the prevalence and characteristics of alcohol-related incidents requiring police attendance across three large geographical areas that included metropolitan cities, provincial regions and rural areas. Stage Two of the program of research also comprised two cross sectional quantitative studies (Studies 3 & 4) that investigated the temporal and spatial dynamics of the major offence categories attended by operational police in a specific Police District (Gold Coast). Stage Three of the program of research involved two studies (Studies 5 & 6) that assessed the effectiveness of a situational crime prevention strategy. The studies employed a pre-post design to assess the impact on crime, disorder and violence by preventing patrons from entering late-night liquor trading premises between 3 a.m. and 5 a.m. (lockout policy). Although Study Five was solely quantitative in nature, Study Six included both quantitative and qualitative aspects. The approach adopted in Study Six, therefore facilitated not only a quantative comparison of the impact of the lockout policy on different policing areas, but also enabled the processes related to the implementation of the lockout policy to be examined. The thesis reports a program of research involving a common data collection method which then involved a series of studies being conducted to explore different aspects of the data. The data was collected from three sources. Firstly a pilot phase was undertaken to provide participants with training. Secondly a main study period was undertaken immediately following the pilot phase. The first and second sources of data were collected between 29th March 2004 and 2nd May 2004. Thirdly, additional data was collected between the 1st April 2005 and 31st May 2005. Participants in the current program of research were first response operational police officers who completed a modified activity log over a 9 week period (4 week pilot phase & 5 week survey study phase), identifying the type, prevalence and characteristics of alcohol-related incidents that were attended. During the study period police officers attended 31,090 alcohol-related incidents. Studies One and Two revealed that a substantial proportion of current police work involves attendance at alcohol-related incidents (i.e., 25% largely involving young males aged between 17 and 24 years). The most common incidents police attended were vehicle and/or traffic matters, disturbances and offences against property. The major category of offences most likely to involve alcohol included vehicle/traffic matters, disturbances and offences against the person (e.g., common & serious assaults). These events were most likely to occur in the late evenings and early hours of the morning on the weekends, and importantly, usually took longer for police to complete than non alcohol-related incidents. The findings in Studies Three and Four suggest that serious traffic offences, disturbances and offences against the person share similar characteristics and occur in concentrated places at similar times. In addition, it was found that time, place and incident type all have an influence on whether an incident attended by a police officer is alcohol-related. Alcohol-related incidents are more likely to occur in particular locations in the late evenings and early mornings on the weekends. In particular, there was a strong association between the occurrence of alcohol-related disturbances and alcohol-related serious traffic offences in regards to place and time. In general, stealing and property offences were not alcohol-related and occurred in daylight hours during weekdays. The results of Studies Five and Six were mixed. A number of alcohol-related offences requiring police attention were significantly reduced for some policing areas and for some types of offences following the implementation of the lockout policy. However, in some locations the lockout policy appeared to have a negative or minimal impact. Interviews with licensees revealed that although all were initially opposed to the lockout policy as they believed it would have a negative impact on business, most perceived some benefits from its introduction. Some of the benefits included, improved patron safety and the development of better business strategies to increase patron numbers. In conclusion, the overall findings of the six studies highlight the pervasive nature of alcohol across a range of criminal incidents, demonstrating the tremendous impact alcohol-related incidents have on police. The findings also demonstrate the importance of time and place in predicting the occurrence of alcohol-related offences. Although this program of research did not set out to test Place Based theories of crime, these theories were used to inform the interpretation of findings. The findings in the current research program provide evidence for the relevance of Place Based theories of crime to understanding the factors contributing to violence and disorder, and designing relevant crime prevention strategies. For instance, the results in Studies Five and Six provide supportive evidence that this novel lockout initiative can be beneficial for public safety by reducing some types of offences in particular areas in and around late-night liquor trading premises. Finally, intelligent-led policing initiatives based on problem oriented policing, such as the lockout policy examined in this thesis, have potential as a major crime prevention technique to reduce specific types of alcohol-related offences.

Knowledge-based development of cities : a myth or reality?

Urban development in the 21st decade of the 21st century has faced many challenges ranging from rapid to shrinking urbanisation, from emerging knowledge economy to global division of labour and from globalisation to climate change. Along with with these challenges new concepts, such as essentialism, environmentalism and dematerialism, are emerged and started to influence the way urban development plans are prepared and visions for the development of cities are made. Beyond this, scholars, practitioners and decision-makers have also started to discuss the need for an new urban planning and development approach in order to achieve a development that is sustainable and knowledge-based. Limited successful examples of alternative planning and development approaches showcased potentials of moving towards a new plan-making mindset in the era of knowledge economy. This paper presents a new urban planning and development approach that is taking application ground in many parts of the globe, namely knowledge-based urban development. After providing the theoretical foundation and conceptual framework of knowledge-based urban development the paper discusses whether knowledge-based development of cities is a myth or a reality.

SAP webflow made configurable: unifying workflow templates into a configurable model

To facilitate the implementation of workflows, enterprise and workflow system vendors typically provide workflow templates for their software. Each of these templates depicts a variant of how the software supports a certain business process, allowing the user to save the effort of creating models and links to system components from scratch by selecting and activating the appropriate template. A combination of the strengths from different templates is however only achievable by manually adapting the templates which is cumbersome. We therefore suggest in this paper to combine different workflow templates into a single configurable workflow template. Using the workflow modeling language of SAP’s WebFlow engine, we show how such a configurable workflow modeling language can be created by identifying the configurable elements in the original language. Requirements imposed on configurations inhibit invalid configurations. Based on a default configuration such configurable templates can be used as easy as the traditional templates. The suggested approach is also applicable to other workflow modeling languages

The effects of truth in the hinterlands and abused [in Portugese] Os efeitos de verdade em os sertões e abusado

O presente livro propõe-se a refletir sobre a construção dos efeitos de verdade em dois modos de produção de ordem discursiva: Os sertões, romance de Euclides da Cunha, e Abusado: o dono do morro Dona Marta, romance-reportagem do jornalista Caco Barcellos. A autora apresenta a fragilidade do discurso jornalístico em legitimar-se como o discurso do verdadeiro, em dura oposição ao discurso da literatura, lugar da ficção, expressão dos sentimentos, imaginário, da não-verdade. [Portugese]

Advantages of tandem LC-MS for the rapid assessment of tissue-specific metabolic complexity using a pentafluorophenylpropyl stationary phase

In this study, a tandem LC-MS (Waters Xevo TQ) MRM-based MS method was developed for rapid, broad profiling of hydrophilic metabolites from biological samples, in either positive or negative ion modes without the need for an ion pairing reagent, using a reversed-phase pentafluorophenylpropyl (PFPP) column. The developed method was successfully applied to analyze various biological samples from C57BL/6 mice, including urine, duodenum, liver, plasma, kidney, heart, and skeletal muscle. As result, a total 112 of hydrophilic metabolites were detected within 8 min of running time to obtain a metabolite profile of the biological samples. The analysis of this number of hydrophilic metabolites is significantly faster than previous studies. Classification separation for metabolites from different tissues was globally analyzed by PCA, PLS-DA and HCA biostatistical methods. Overall, most of the hydrophilic metabolites were found to have a "fingerprint" characteristic of tissue dependency. In general, a higher level of most metabolites was found in urine, duodenum, and kidney. Altogether, these results suggest that this method has potential application for targeted metabolomic analyzes of hydrophilic metabolites in a wide ranges of biological samples.

Metabolomic analysis characterizes tissue specific indomethacin-induced metabolic perturbations of rats

In this study, the promising metabolomic approach integrating with ingenuity pathway analysis (IPA) was applied to characterize the tissue specific metabolic perturbation of rats that was induced by indomethacin. The selective pattern recognition analyses were applied to analyze global metabolic profiling of urine of rats treated by indomethacin at an acute dosage of reference that has been proven to induce tissue disorders in rats, evaluated throughout the time-course of -24-72 h. The results preliminarily revealed that modifications of amino acid metabolism, fatty acid metabolism and energetically associated metabolic pathways accounted for metabolic perturbation of the rats that was induced by indomethacin. Furthermore, IPA was applied to deeply analyze the biomarkers and their relations with the metabolic perturbations evidenced by pattern recognition analyses. Specific biochemical functions affected by indomethacin suggested that there is an important correlation of its effects in kidney and liver metabolism, based on the determined metabolites and their pathway-based analysis. The IPA correlation of the three major biomarkers, identified as creatinine, prostaglandin E2 and guanosine, suggested that the administration of indomethacin induced certain levels of toxicity in the kidneys and liver. The changes in the levels of biomarker metabolites allowed the phenotypical determination of the metabolic perturbations induced by indomethacin in a time-dependent manner.

Plasma metabolomics reveals biomarkers of the atherosclerosis

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease remains the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in industrialized societies. The lack of metabolite biomarkers has impeded the clinical diagnosis of atherosclerosis so far. In this study, stable atherosclerosis patients (n=16) and age- and sex-matched non-atherosclerosis healthy subjects (n=28) were recruited from the local community (Harbin, P. R. China). The plasma was collected from each study subject and was subjected to metabolomics analysis by GC/MS. Pattern recognition analyses (principal components analysis, orthogonal partial least-squares discriminate analysis, and hierarchical clustering analysis) commonly demonstrated plasma metabolome, which was significantly different from atherosclerotic and non-atherosclerotic subjects. The development of atherosclerosis-induced metabolic perturbations of fatty acids, such as palmitate, stearate, and 1-monolinoleoylglycerol, was confirmed consistent with previous publication, showing that palmitate significantly contributes to atherosclerosis development via targeting apoptosis and inflammation pathways. Altogether, this study demonstrated that the development of atherosclerosis directly perturbed fatty acid metabolism, especially that of palmitate, which was confirmed as a phenotypic biomarker for clinical diagnosis of atherosclerosis.

Marine aerosol hygroscopicity and volatility, measured on the Chatham Rise (New Zealand)

The Surface Ocean Aerosol Production (SOAP) study was undertaken in February/March 2012 in the biologically active waters of the Chatham Rise, NZ. Aerosol hygroscopicity and volatility were examined with a volatility hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyser. These observations confirm results from other hygroscopicity-based studies that the dominant fraction of the observed remote marine particles were non-sea salt sulfates. Further observations are required to clarify the influences of seawater composition, meteorology and analysis techniques seasonally across different ocean basins.

Topological localization using optical flow descriptors

We propose a topological localization method based on optical flow information. We analyse the statistical characteristics of the optical flow signal and demonstrate that the flow vectors can be used to identify and describe key locations in the environment. The key locations (nodes) correspond to significant scene changes and depth discontinuities. Since optical flow vectors contain position, magnitude and angle information, for each node, we extract low and high order statistical moments of the vectors and use them as descriptors for that node. Once a database of nodes and their corresponding optical flow features is created, the robot can perform topological localization by using the Mahalanobis distance between the current frame and the database. This is supported by field trials, which illustrate the repeatability of the proposed method for detecting and describing key locations in indoor and outdoor environments in challenging and diverse lighting conditions.

A Study of feature extraction algorithms for optical flow tracking

Sparse optical flow algorithms, such as the Lucas-Kanade approach, provide more robustness to noise than dense optical flow algorithms and are the preferred approach in many scenarios. Sparse optical flow algorithms estimate the displacement for a selected number of pixels in the image. These pixels can be chosen randomly. However, pixels in regions with more variance between the neighbours will produce more reliable displacement estimates. The selected pixel locations should therefore be chosen wisely. In this study, the suitability of Harris corners, Shi-Tomasi's “Good features to track", SIFT and SURF interest point extractors, Canny edges, and random pixel selection for the purpose of frame-by-frame tracking using a pyramidical Lucas-Kanade algorithm is investigated. The evaluation considers the important factors of processing time, feature count, and feature trackability in indoor and outdoor scenarios using ground vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles, and for the purpose of visual odometry estimation.

Qaphqa : fresh cut 2013 Part 1

'Qaphqa' was an outdoor artwork exhibited in the forecourt of Brisbane’s Institute of Modern Art as part of Fresh Cut exhibition series. The work took the form of a three-storey-high series of stacked 'outhouses', the seat of each opening onto the cubicle below to form what the artist referred to as a 'long drop'. Assembled in untreated pine and plywood and festooned with mock-medieval ensigns and flags, the work included a flyer containing a poem by Jorge Luis Borges and was accompanied by a published catalogue.

On the use of optical flow for scene change detection and description

We propose the use of optical flow information as a method for detecting and describing changes in the environment, from the perspective of a mobile camera. We analyze the characteristics of the optical flow signal and demonstrate how robust flow vectors can be generated and used for the detection of depth discontinuities and appearance changes at key locations. To successfully achieve this task, a full discussion on camera positioning, distortion compensation, noise filtering, and parameter estimation is presented. We then extract statistical attributes from the flow signal to describe the location of the scene changes. We also employ clustering and dominant shape of vectors to increase the descriptiveness. Once a database of nodes (where a node is a detected scene change) and their corresponding flow features is created, matching can be performed whenever nodes are encountered, such that topological localization can be achieved. We retrieve the most likely node according to the Mahalanobis and Chi-square distances between the current frame and the database. The results illustrate the applicability of the technique for detecting and describing scene changes in diverse lighting conditions, considering indoor and outdoor environments and different robot platforms.