Tourism Destination Preferences: A Longitudinal Analysis of Consumer Decision Sets

There have only been a small number of applications of consumer decision set theory to holiday destination choice, and these studies have tended to rely on a single cross sectional snapshot of research participants’ stated preferences. Very little has been reported on the relationship between stated destination preferences and actual travel, or changes in decision set composition over time. The paper presents a rare longitudinal examination of destination decision sets, in the context of short break holidays by car in Queensland, Australia. Two questionnaires were administered, three months apart. The first identified destination preferences while the second examined actual travel and revisited destination preferences. In relation to the conference theme, there was very little change in consumer preferences towards the competitive set of destinations over the three month period. A key implication for the destination of interest, which, in an attempt to change market perceptions, launched a new brand campaign during the period of the project, is that a long term investment in a consistent brand message will be required to change market perceptions. The results go some way to support the proposition that the positioning of a destination into a consumer’s decision set represents a source of competitive advantage.

Stochastic modelling of financial time series with memory and multifractal scaling

Financial processes may possess long memory and their probability densities may display heavy tails. Many models have been developed to deal with this tail behaviour, which reflects the jumps in the sample paths. On the other hand, the presence of long memory, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, is still an issue for further debates. These difficulties present challenges with the problems of memory detection and modelling the co-presence of long memory and heavy tails. This PhD project aims to respond to these challenges. The first part aims to detect memory in a large number of financial time series on stock prices and exchange rates using their scaling properties. Since financial time series often exhibit stochastic trends, a common form of nonstationarity, strong trends in the data can lead to false detection of memory. We will take advantage of a technique known as multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) that can systematically eliminate trends of different orders. This method is based on the identification of scaling of the q-th-order moments and is a generalisation of the standard detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) which uses only the second moment; that is, q = 2. We also consider the rescaled range R/S analysis and the periodogram method to detect memory in financial time series and compare their results with the MF-DFA. An interesting finding is that short memory is detected for stock prices of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and long memory is found present in the time series of two exchange rates, namely the French franc and the Deutsche mark. Electricity price series of the five states of Australia are also found to possess long memory. For these electricity price series, heavy tails are also pronounced in their probability densities. The second part of the thesis develops models to represent short-memory and longmemory financial processes as detected in Part I. These models take the form of continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations whose kernel is the Laplace transform of a finite Borel measure. By imposing appropriate conditions on this measure, short memory or long memory in the dynamics of the solution will result. A specific form of the models, which has a good MA(∞) -type representation, is presented for the short memory case. Parameter estimation of this type of models is performed via least squares, and the models are applied to the stock prices in the AMEX, which have been established in Part I to possess short memory. By selecting the kernel in the continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations to have the form of Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, we obtain a fractional stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion. This type of equations is used to represent financial processes with long memory, whose dynamics is described by the fractional derivative in the equation. These models are estimated via quasi-likelihood, namely via a continuoustime version of the Gauss-Whittle method. The models are applied to the exchange rates and the electricity prices of Part I with the aim of confirming their possible long-range dependence established by MF-DFA. The third part of the thesis provides an application of the results established in Parts I and II to characterise and classify financial markets. We will pay attention to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the NASDAQ Stock Exchange (NASDAQ) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The parameters from MF-DFA and those of the short-memory AR(∞) -type models will be employed in this classification. We propose the Fisher discriminant algorithm to find a classifier in the two and three-dimensional spaces of data sets and then provide cross-validation to verify discriminant accuracies. This classification is useful for understanding and predicting the behaviour of different processes within the same market. The fourth part of the thesis investigates the heavy-tailed behaviour of financial processes which may also possess long memory. We consider fractional stochastic differential equations driven by stable noise to model financial processes such as electricity prices. The long memory of electricity prices is represented by a fractional derivative, while the stable noise input models their non-Gaussianity via the tails of their probability density. A method using the empirical densities and MF-DFA will be provided to estimate all the parameters of the model and simulate sample paths of the equation. The method is then applied to analyse daily spot prices for five states of Australia. Comparison with the results obtained from the R/S analysis, periodogram method and MF-DFA are provided. The results from fractional SDEs agree with those from MF-DFA, which are based on multifractal scaling, while those from the periodograms, which are based on the second order, seem to underestimate the long memory dynamics of the process. This highlights the need and usefulness of fractal methods in modelling non-Gaussian financial processes with long memory.

Exploiting multiple feature sets in data-driven impostor dataset selection for speaker verification

This study assesses the recently proposed data-driven background dataset refinement technique for speaker verification using alternate SVM feature sets to the GMM supervector features for which it was originally designed. The performance improvements brought about in each trialled SVM configuration demonstrate the versatility of background dataset refinement. This work also extends on the originally proposed technique to exploit support vector coefficients as an impostor suitability metric in the data-driven selection process. Using support vector coefficients improved the performance of the refined datasets in the evaluation of unseen data. Further, attempts are made to exploit the differences in impostor example suitability measures from varying features spaces to provide added robustness.

Rough sets based reasoning and pattern mining for a two-stage information filtering system

This paper presents a novel two-stage information filtering model which combines the merits of term-based and pattern- based approaches to effectively filter sheer volume of information. In particular, the first filtering stage is supported by a novel rough analysis model which efficiently removes a large number of irrelevant documents, thereby addressing the overload problem. The second filtering stage is empowered by a semantically rich pattern taxonomy mining model which effectively fetches incoming documents according to the specific information needs of a user, thereby addressing the mismatch problem. The experiments have been conducted to compare the proposed two-stage filtering (T-SM) model with other possible "term-based + pattern-based" or "term-based + term-based" IF models. The results based on the RCV1 corpus show that the T-SM model significantly outperforms other types of "two-stage" IF models.

The borders that law sets on entertainment

It is natural for those involved in entertainment to focus on the art. However, like any activity in even a free society, those involved in entertainment industries must operate within borders set by the law. This article examines the main areas of law that impact entertainment in an Australian context. It contrasts the position in relation to freedom of expression in Australia with that in the United States, which also promotes freedom of expression in a free society. It then briefly canvases the main limits on entertainment productions under Australian law.

Heterogeneity in auditory alarm sets makes them easier to learn

The primary objective of the experiments reported here was to demonstrate the effects of opening up the design envelope for auditory alarms on the ability of people to learn the meanings of a set of alarms. Two sets of alarms were tested, one already extant and one newly-designed set for the same set of functions, designed according to a rationale set out by the authors aimed at increasing the heterogeneity of the alarm set and incorporating some well-established principles of alarm design. For both sets of alarms, a similarity-rating experiment was followed by a learning experiment. The results showed that the newly-designed set was judged to be more internally dissimilar, and easier to learn, than the extant set. The design rationale outlined in the paper is useful for design purposes in a variety of practical domains and shows how alarm designers, even at a relatively late stage in the design process, can improve the efficacy of an alarm set.

Probabilistic matching of image sets for video-based face recognition

We address the problem of face recognition on video by employing the recently proposed probabilistic linear discrimi-nant analysis (PLDA). The PLDA has been shown to be robust against pose and expression in image-based face recognition. In this research, the method is extended and applied to video where image set to image set matching is performed. We investigate two approaches of computing similarities between image sets using the PLDA: the closest pair approach and the holistic sets approach. To better model face appearances in video, we also propose the heteroscedastic version of the PLDA which learns the within-class covariance of each individual separately. Our experi-ments on the VidTIMIT and Honda datasets show that the combination of the heteroscedastic PLDA and the closest pair approach achieves the best performance.

Usability of small crisis data sets in the absence of big data

Big data is big news in almost every sector including crisis communication. However, not everyone has access to big data and even if we have access to big data, we often do not have necessary tools to analyze and cross reference such a large data set. Therefore this paper looks at patterns in small data sets that we have ability to collect with our current tools to understand if we can find actionable information from what we already have. We have analyzed 164390 tweets collected during 2011 earthquake to find out what type of location specific information people mention in their tweet and when do they talk about that. Based on our analysis we find that even a small data set that has far less data than a big data set can be useful to find priority disaster specific areas quickly.

The efficiency of corpus-based distributional models for literature-based discovery on large data sets

This paper evaluates the efficiency of a number of popular corpus-based distributional models in performing discovery on very large document sets, including online collections. Literature-based discovery is the process of identifying previously unknown connections from text, often published literature, that could lead to the development of new techniques or technologies. Literature-based discovery has attracted growing research interest ever since Swanson's serendipitous discovery of the therapeutic effects of fish oil on Raynaud's disease in 1986. The successful application of distributional models in automating the identification of indirect associations underpinning literature-based discovery has been heavily demonstrated in the medical domain. However, we wish to investigate the computational complexity of distributional models for literature-based discovery on much larger document collections, as they may provide computationally tractable solutions to tasks including, predicting future disruptive innovations. In this paper we perform a computational complexity analysis on four successful corpus-based distributional models to evaluate their fit for such tasks. Our results indicate that corpus-based distributional models that store their representations in fixed dimensions provide superior efficiency on literature-based discovery tasks.