Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

Analysing Seasonal Health Data

Seasonal patterns have been found in a remarkable range of health conditions, including birth defects, respiratory infections and cardiovascular disease. Accurately estimating the size and timing of seasonal peaks in disease incidence is an aid to understanding the causes and possibly to developing interventions. With global warming increasing the intensity of seasonal weather patterns around the world, a review of the methods for estimating seasonal effects on health is timely. This is the first book on statistical methods for seasonal data written for a health audience. It describes methods for a range of outcomes (including continuous, count and binomial data) and demonstrates appropriate techniques for summarising and modelling these data. It has a practical focus and uses interesting examples to motivate and illustrate the methods. The statistical procedures and example data sets are available in an R package called ‘season’. Adrian Barnett is a senior research fellow at Queensland University of Technology, Australia. Annette Dobson is a Professor of Biostatistics at The University of Queensland, Australia. Both are experienced medical statisticians with a commitment to statistical education and have previously collaborated in research in the methodological developments and applications of biostatistics, especially to time series data. Among other projects, they worked together on revising the well-known textbook "An Introduction to Generalized Linear Models," third edition, Chapman Hall/CRC, 2008. In their new book they share their knowledge of statistical methods for examining seasonal patterns in health.

Folate degradation due to ultraviolet radiation : possible implications for human health and nutrition

Folate is essential for human health in the prevention of megaloblastic anaemia and neural tube birth defects as well as roles in cardiovascular disease and cancer. Therefore research into environmental factors that may impact folate status, such as solar ultraviolet radiation, is of great health significance. In vitro studies have shown that ultraviolet (UV) radiation can degrade folate and folic acid in human blood and this has been confirmed in several human studies. Despite these findings, there is a dearth of epidemiological research into investigating the relationship between folate status and the links to solar UV exposure.

Book review - Richard Goldberg, Medicinal Product Liability and Regulation (Hart Publishing, Oxford, 2013) 214pp

In December 2013, settlement was reached between approximately 100 Australian and New Zealand Thalidomide victims and the company which had acted as the Australian distributor of the infamous drug, thus putting to rest the possibility of litigation. Around the same time, Thalidomide victims in the United Kingdom (UK) launched a similar bid for compensation against the manufacturer and distributor. It is clear that despite a lengthy amount of time having passed ever since the thalidomide disaster commenced in 1962, the controversy over compensation continues. Indeed, the author of Medicinal Product Liability and Regulation (published before the announcement of the British legal claim), Professor Goldberg, notes that claims for resulting birth defects continue to emerge right into the present day. His prescient insight into the contemporary relevance of compensation for pharmaceutical injuries thus makes Medicinal Product Liability and Regulation a very relevant addition to the small body of scholarship that is available on this rather specific and complex issue.

The challenges of meeting the needs of children with Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) during out of hospital interactoins with Paramedics

This poster presents the results of a critical review of the literature on the intersection between paramedic practice with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) and previews the clinical and communication challenges likely to be experienced with these patients. Paramedics in Australia provide 24/7 out-of-hospital care to the community. Although their core business is to provide emergency care, paramedics also provide care for vulnerable people as a consequence of the social, economic or domestic milieu. Little is known about the frequency of use of emergency out-of-hospital services by children with ASD and their families. Similarly, little is known about the attitudes and perceptions of paramedics to children with ASD and their emergency health care. However, individuals with ASD are likely to require paramedic services at some point across the life span and may be more frequent users of health services as a consequence of the challenges they face. The high rate of co-morbidities of people diagnosed with ASD is reported and includes seizure disorders, gastro-intestinal disorders, metabolic disorders, hormonal dysfunction, ear, nose and throat infections, hearing impairment, hypertension, allergies/anaphylaxis, immune disorders, migraine and diabetes, gross/fine motor skill dysfunction, premature birth, birth defects, obesity and mental illness. Individuals with ASD may frequently experience concurrent communication, behaviour and sensory challenges. Consequently, Paramedics can encounter difficulties gathering important patient information which may compromise sensitive care. These interactions occur often in high pressure and emotionally challenging environments, which add to the difficulties in communicating the treatment and transport needs of this population.

Maternal age and paternal age are associated with distinct childhood behavioural outcomes in a general population birth cohort

Abstract Background Recent studies show that advanced paternal age (APA) is associated with an increased risk of neurodevelopmental disorders such as autism, bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A body of evidence also suggests that individuals who develop schizophrenia show subtle deviations in a range of behavioural domains during their childhood. The aim of the study was to examine the relationship between paternal and maternal ages and selected behavioural measures in children using a large birth cohort. Method Participants were singleton children (n = 21,753) drawn from the US Collaborative Perinatal Project. The outcome measures were assessed at 7 years. The main analyses examined the relationship between parental age and behavioural measures when adjusted for a range of potentially confounding variables, including age of the other parent, maternal race, socio-economic measures, sex, gestation length, maternal marital status, parental mental illness, and child's age-at-testing. Results Advanced paternal age was associated with a significantly increased risk of adverse ‘externalizing’ behaviours at age seven years. For every five year increase in paternal age, the odds of higher ‘externalizing’ behaviours was increased by 12% (OR = 1.12; 95% CI = 1.03, 1.21, p < 0.0001). The relationship persisted after adjusting for potential confounding factors. ‘Internalizing’ behavioural outcome was not associated with advanced paternal age. In contrast, advanced maternal age was significantly protective against adverse ‘externalizing’ behavioural outcomes, but associated with an increased risk of adverse ‘internalizing’ behavioural outcomes. Discussion The offspring of older fathers show a distinctly different pattern of behaviours compared to the offspring of older mothers. The diverse socio-cultural and biologically-mediated factors that underpin these findings remain to be clarified. In light of secular trends related to delayed parenthood, the mechanisms underlying these findings warrant closer scrutiny.

Postpartum fatigue and driving : relating experiences, thoughts and opinions 12 weeks post-birth

Fatigue in the postnatal period is such a common experience for most mothers that the term ‘postpartum fatigue’ (PPF) has been coined to describe it. When new mothers experience extreme fatigue, it follows that their physical health, mental health, and social-wellbeing is negatively affected. It is interesting to note that there is a distinct lack of empirical investigations focusing on the link between PPF and increased risk of injury; particularly when the links between fatigue and increased risk of road crashes are well documented. The purpose of this investigation was to undertake pilot research to develop an understanding of the duration of PPF and the performance impairments experienced by new mothers when involved in safety-sensitive activities, such as driving a motor vehicle. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with women (N = 24) at 12 weeks postpartum living in South-east Queensland, Australia. Key themes were identified; with a particular emphasis towards understanding the link between the participant’s experience of postpartum fatigue and the impact this has on their overall cognitive and physiological functioning, as well as their experience of the driving task. Further, sleep/wake data was collected and using the Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS) the potential crash risk for this group of mothers is discussed. It is proposed that the findings of this investigation could be used to improve current knowledge among new mothers and practitioners regarding the mechanisms and consequences of fatigue and to inform interventions that lead to a decreased risk of injury associated with postpartum fatigue.

Psychopathology during childhood and adolescence predicts delusional-like experiences in adults : a 21-year birth cohort study

Objective: Community surveys have shown that many otherwise well individuals report delusional-like experiences. The authors examined psychopathology during childhood and adolescence as a predictor of delusional-like experiences in young adulthood. ---------- Method: The authors analyzed prospective data from the Mater-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy, a birth cohort of 3,617 young adults born between 1981 and 1983. Psychopathology was measured at ages 5 and 14 using the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) and at age 14 using the Youth Self-Report (YSR). Delusional-like experiences were measured at age 21 using the Peters Delusional Inventory. The association between childhood and adolescent symptoms and later delusional-like experiences was examined using logistic regression. ---------- Results: High CBCL scores at ages 5 and 14 predicted high levels of delusional-like experiences at age 21 (odds ratios for the highest versus the other quartiles combined were 1.25 and 1.85, respectively). Those with YSR scores in the highest quartile at age 14 were nearly four times as likely to have high levels of delusional-like experiences at age 21 (odds ratio=3.71). Adolescent-onset psychopathology and continuous psychopathology through both childhood and adolescence strongly predicted delusional-like experiences at age 21. Hallucinations at age 14 were significantly associated with delusional-like experiences at age 21. The general pattern of associations persisted when adjusted for previous drug use or the presence of nonaffective psychoses at age 21. ---------- Conclusion: Psychopathology during childhood and adolescence predicts adult delusional-like experiences. Understanding the biological and psychosocial factors that influence this developmental trajectory may provide clues to the pathogenesis of psychotic-like experiences.

The missing puzzle : birth of a format

The art of storytelling is one of the oldest forms of creative discourse. Apart from finding stories, the most important job in television is the construction of stories to have a broad audience appeal. This first-hand review of Missing Persons Unit, hereafter referred to as MPU, a prime time program on the Nine Network in Australia with immense audience appeal, is an original work by the executive producer (development and series producer Series One, executive producer Series Two and Three) based on an overview of two-and-a-half years of production on three series. Through a case study approach, this Masters project explores how story is constructed into a television format. The thesis comprises two parts: the creative component (weighted 50%) is demonstrated through two programs of MPU (one program for evaluation) and the academic component through a written exegesis (50%). This case study aims to demonstrate how observational hybrid series such as MPU can be managed to quick turn-around schedules with precise skill sets that cut across a number of traditional genre styles. With the advent of radio and then television, storytelling found a home and a series of labels called genres to help place them in a schedule for listeners and viewers to choose. Over recent years, with the advent of digital technology and the rush to collect the masses of content required to feed the growing television slate, storytelling has often been replaced by story gathering. Today even in factual series where a clear story construct is important, third party ‘quick fix’ specialists are hired to shape raw content shot by a field team, who never put their own work together and may never come into the edit suite during a project. This thesis explores the art of storytelling in fast turn-around television. In particular it explores the layer cake approach used in the production process of MPU, that enables producers of fast turn-around television to shepherd their own stories from field through to post-production. While each new hybrid series will require its own particular sets of skills, the exploration of the genesis of MPU will demonstrate the building blocks required to successfully produce this type of factual series. This study is also intended as a ‘road map’ for producers who wish to develop similar series.

Runx2 overexpression in bone marrow stromal cells accelerates bone formation in critically-sized femoral defects

The repair of large non-unions in long bones remains a significant clinical problem due to high failure rates and limited tissue availability for auto- and allografts. Many cell-based strategies for healing bone defects deliver bone marrow stromal cells to the defect site to take advantage of the inherent osteogenic capacity of this cell type. However, many factors, including donor age and ex vivo expansion of the cells, cause bone marrow stromal cells to lose their differentiation ability. To overcome these limitations, we have genetically engineered bone marrow stromal cells to constitutively overexpress the osteoblast specific transcription factor Runx2. In the present study, we examined Runx2-modified bone marrow stromal cells, delivered via poly(caprolactone) scaffolds loaded with type I collagen meshes, in critically-sized segmental defects in rats compared to unmodified cells, cell-free scaffolds and empty defects. Runx2 expression in bone marrow stromal cells accelerated healing of critically-sized defects compared to unmodified bone marrow stromal cells and defects receiving cell-free treatments. These findings provide an accelerated method for healing large bone defects which may reduce recovery time and the need for external fixation of critically-sized defects.