Persistent localized states for a chaotically mixed bistable reaction

We describe the evolution of a bistable chemical reaction in a closed two-dimensional chaotic laminar flow, from a localized initial disturbance. When the fluid mixing is sufficiently slow, the disturbance may spread and eventually occupy the entire fluid domain. By contrast, rapid mixing tends to dilute the initial state and so extinguish the disturbance. Such a dichotomy is well known. However, we report here a hitherto apparently unremarked intermediate case, a persistent highly localized disturbance. Such a localized state arises when the Damkoehler number is great enough to sustain a "hot spot," but not so great as to lead to global spread. We show that such a disturbance is located in the neighborhood of an unstable periodic orbit of the flow, and we describe some limited aspects of its behavior using a reduced, lamellar model. Copyright American Physical Society (APS) 2006.

A bistable reaction-diffusion system in a stretching flow

We examine the evolution of a bistable reaction in a one-dimensional stretching flow, as a model for chaotic advection. We derive two reduced systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) for the dynamics of the governing advection-reaction-diffusion partial differential equations (PDE), for pulse-like and for plateau-like solutions, based on a non-perturbative approach. This reduction allows us to study the dynamics in two cases: first, close to a saddle-node bifurcation at which a pair of nontrivial steady states are born as the dimensionless reaction rate (Damkoehler number) is increased, and, second, for large Damkoehler number, far away from the bifurcation. The main aim is to investigate the initial-value problem and to determine when an initial condition subject to chaotic stirring will decay to zero and when it will give rise to a nonzero final state. Comparisons with full PDE simulations show that the reduced pulse model accurately predicts the threshold amplitude for a pulse initial condition to give rise to a nontrivial final steady state, and that the reduced plateau model gives an accurate picture of the dynamics of the system at large Damkoehler number. Published in Physica D (2006)

Reduced models of chemical reaction in chaotic flows

We describe and evaluate two reduced models for nonlinear chemical reactions in a chaotic laminar flow. Each model involves two separate steps to compute the chemical composition at a given location and time. The “manifold tracking model” first tracks backwards in time a segment of the stable manifold of the requisite point. This then provides a sample of the initial conditions appropriate for the second step, which requires solving one-dimensional problems for the reaction in Lagrangian coordinates. By contrast, the first step of the “branching trajectories model” simulates both the advection and diffusion of fluid particles that terminate at the appropriate point; the chemical reaction equations are then solved along each of the branched trajectories in a second step. Results from each model are compared with full numerical simulations of the reaction processes in a chaotic laminar flow.

Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model

Knowledge of the efficacy of an intervention for disease control on an individual farm is essential to make good decisions on preventive healthcare, but the uncertainty in outcome associated with undertaking a specific control strategy has rarely been considered in veterinary medicine. The purpose of this research was to explore the uncertainty in change in disease incidence and financial benefit that could occur on different farms, when two effective farm management interventions are undertaken. Bovine mastitis was used as an example disease and the research was conducted using data from an intervention study as prior information within an integrated Bayesian simulation model. Predictions were made of the reduction in clinical mastitis within 30 days of calving on 52 farms, attributable to the application of two herd interventions previously reported as effective; rotation of dry cow pasture and differential dry cow therapy. Results indicated that there were important degrees of uncertainty in the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis for individual farms when either intervention was undertaken; the magnitude of the 95% credible intervals for reduced clinical mastitis incidence were substantial and of clinical relevance. The large uncertainty associated with the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis attributable to the interventions resulted in important variability in possible financial outcomes for each farm. The uncertainty in outcome associated with farm control measures illustrates the difficulty facing a veterinary clinician when making an on-farm decision and highlights the importance of iterative herd health procedures (continual evaluation, reassessment and adjusted interventions) to optimise health in an individual herd.