Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model

Knowledge of the efficacy of an intervention for disease control on an individual farm is essential to make good decisions on preventive healthcare, but the uncertainty in outcome associated with undertaking a specific control strategy has rarely been considered in veterinary medicine. The purpose of this research was to explore the uncertainty in change in disease incidence and financial benefit that could occur on different farms, when two effective farm management interventions are undertaken. Bovine mastitis was used as an example disease and the research was conducted using data from an intervention study as prior information within an integrated Bayesian simulation model. Predictions were made of the reduction in clinical mastitis within 30 days of calving on 52 farms, attributable to the application of two herd interventions previously reported as effective; rotation of dry cow pasture and differential dry cow therapy. Results indicated that there were important degrees of uncertainty in the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis for individual farms when either intervention was undertaken; the magnitude of the 95% credible intervals for reduced clinical mastitis incidence were substantial and of clinical relevance. The large uncertainty associated with the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis attributable to the interventions resulted in important variability in possible financial outcomes for each farm. The uncertainty in outcome associated with farm control measures illustrates the difficulty facing a veterinary clinician when making an on-farm decision and highlights the importance of iterative herd health procedures (continual evaluation, reassessment and adjusted interventions) to optimise health in an individual herd.

Using SVG as the Rendering Model for Structured and Graphically Complex Web Material

This paper reports some experiments in using SVG (Scalable Vector Graphics), rather than the browser default of (X)HTML/CSS, as a potential Web-based rendering technology, in an attempt to create an approach that integrates the structural and display aspects of a Web document in a single XML-compliant envelope. Although the syntax of SVG is XML based, the semantics of the primitive graphic operations more closely resemble those of page description languages such as PostScript or PDF. The principal usage of SVG, so far, is for inserting complex graphic material into Web pages that are predominantly controlled via (X)HTML and CSS. The conversion of structured and unstructured PDF into SVG is discussed. It is found that unstructured PDF converts into pages of SVG with few problems, but difficulties arise when one attempts to map the structural components of a Tagged PDF into an XML skeleton underlying the corresponding SVG. These difficulties are not fundamentally syntactic; they arise largely because browsers are innately bound to (X)HTML/CSS as their default rendering model. Some suggestions are made for ways in which SVG could be more totally integrated into browser functionality, with the possibility that future browsers might be able to use SVG as their default rendering paradigm.