5 resultados para density-dependent model
em Nottingham eTheses
Resumo:
Mechanistic models used for prediction should be parsimonious, as models which are over-parameterised may have poor predictive performance. Determining whether a model is parsimonious requires comparisons with alternative model formulations with differing levels of complexity. However, creating alternative formulations for large mechanistic models is often problematic, and usually time-consuming. Consequently, few are ever investigated. In this paper, we present an approach which rapidly generates reduced model formulations by replacing a model’s variables with constants. These reduced alternatives can be compared to the original model, using data based model selection criteria, to assist in the identification of potentially unnecessary model complexity, and thereby inform reformulation of the model. To illustrate the approach, we present its application to a published radiocaesium plant-uptake model, which predicts uptake on the basis of soil characteristics (e.g. pH, organic matter content, clay content). A total of 1024 reduced model formulations were generated, and ranked according to five model selection criteria: Residual Sum of Squares (RSS), AICc, BIC, MDL and ICOMP. The lowest scores for RSS and AICc occurred for the same reduced model in which pH dependent model components were replaced. The lowest scores for BIC, MDL and ICOMP occurred for a further reduced model in which model components related to the distinction between adsorption on clay and organic surfaces were replaced. Both these reduced models had a lower RSS for the parameterisation dataset than the original model. As a test of their predictive performance, the original model and the two reduced models outlined above were used to predict an independent dataset. The reduced models have lower prediction sums of squares than the original model, suggesting that the latter may be overfitted. The approach presented has the potential to inform model development by rapidly creating a class of alternative model formulations, which can be compared.
Resumo:
Stromules are motile extensions of the plastid envelope membrane, whose roles are not fully understood. They are present on all plastid types but are more common and extensive on non-green plastids that are sparsely distributed within the cell. During tomato fruit ripening, chloroplasts in the mesocarp tissue differentiate into chromoplasts and undergo major shifts in morphology. In order to understand what factors regulate stromule formation, we analysed stromule biogenesis in tobacco hypocotyls and in two distinct plastid populations in tomato mesocarp. We show that increases in stromule length and frequency are correlated with chromoplast differentiation, but only in one plastid population where the plastids are larger and less numerous. We used tobacco hypocotyls to confirm that stromule length increases as plastids become further apart, suggesting that stromules optimise the plastid-cytoplasm contact area. Furthermore, we demonstrate that ectopic chloroplast components decrease stromule formation on tomato fruit chromoplasts, whereas preventing chloroplast development leads to increased numbers of stromules. Inhibition of fruit ripening has a dramatic impact on plastid and stromule morphology, underlining that plastid differentiation status, and not cell type, is a significant factor in determining the extent of plastid stromules. By modifying the plastid surface area, we propose that stromules enhance the specific metabolic activities of plastids. This is an electronic version of an Article published in The Plant Journal, August 2004, Volume 39, pp. 655-667. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The Society for Experimental Biology.