A bidomain threshold model of propagating calcium waves

We present a bidomain fire-diffuse-fire model that facilitates mathematical analysis of propagating waves of elevated intracellular calcium (Ca) in living cells. Modelling Ca release as a threshold process allows the explicit construction of travelling wave solutions to probe the dependence of Ca wave speed on physiologically important parameters such as the threshold for Ca release from the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) to the cytosol, the rate of Ca resequestration from the cytosol to the ER, and the total [Ca] (cytosolic plus ER). Interestingly, linear stability analysis of the bidomain fire-diffuse-fire model predicts the onset of dynamic wave instabilities leading to the emergence of Ca waves that propagate in a back-and-forth manner. Numerical simulations are used to confirm the presence of these so-called "tango waves" and the dependence of Ca wave speed on the total [Ca]. The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com (Journal of Mathematical Biology)

Threshold behaviour and final outcome of an epidemic on a random network with household structure

This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within 'households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal size) and along the edges of a random graph describing additional social contacts. Heuristically-motivated branching process approximations are described, which lead to a threshold parameter for the model and methods for calculating the probability of a major outbreak, given few initial infectives, and the expected proportion of the population who are ultimately infected by such a major outbreak. These approximate results are shown to be exact as the number of households tends to infinity by proving associated limit theorems. Moreover, simulation studies indicate that these asymptotic results provide good approximations for modestly-sized finite populations. The extension to unequal sized households is discussed briefly.