Receptors, sparks and waves in a fire-diffuse-fire framework for calcium release

Calcium ions are an important second messenger in living cells. Indeed calcium signals in the form of waves have been the subject of much recent experimental interest. It is now well established that these waves are composed of elementary stochastic release events (calcium puffs or sparks) from spatially localised calcium stores. The aim of this paper is to analyse how the stochastic nature of individual receptors within these stores combines to create stochastic behaviour on long timescales that may ultimately lead to waves of activity in a spatially extended cell model. Techniques from asymptotic analysis and stochastic phase-plane analysis are used to show that a large cluster of receptor channels leads to a release probability with a sigmoidal dependence on calcium density. This release probability is incorporated into a computationally inexpensive model of calcium release based upon a stochastic generalization of the Fire-Diffuse-Fire (FDF) threshold model. Numerical simulations of the model in one and two dimensions (with stores arranged on both regular and disordered lattices) illustrate that stochastic calcium release leads to the spontaneous production of calcium sparks that may merge to form saltatory waves. Illustrations of spreading circular waves, spirals and more irregular waves are presented. Furthermore, receptor noise is shown to generate a form of array enhanced coherence resonance whereby all calcium stores release periodically and simultaneously.

Analysis of a stochastic SIR epidemic on a random network incorporating household structure

This paper is concerned with a stochastic SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals, with a random network of social contacts, that is also partitioned into households. The behaviour of the model as the population size tends to infinity in an appropriate fashion is investigated. A threshold parameter which determines whether or not an epidemic with few initial infectives can become established and lead to a major outbreak is obtained, as are the probability that a major outbreak occurs and the expected proportion of the population that are ultimately infected by such an outbreak, together with methods for calculating these quantities. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that these asymptotic quantities accurately reflect the behaviour of finite populations, even for only moderately sized finite populations. The model is compared and contrasted with related models previously studied in the literature. The effects of the amount of clustering present in the overall population structure and the infectious period distribution on the outcomes of the model are also explored.

Threshold behaviour and final outcome of an epidemic on a random network with household structure

This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within 'households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal size) and along the edges of a random graph describing additional social contacts. Heuristically-motivated branching process approximations are described, which lead to a threshold parameter for the model and methods for calculating the probability of a major outbreak, given few initial infectives, and the expected proportion of the population who are ultimately infected by such a major outbreak. These approximate results are shown to be exact as the number of households tends to infinity by proving associated limit theorems. Moreover, simulation studies indicate that these asymptotic results provide good approximations for modestly-sized finite populations. The extension to unequal sized households is discussed briefly.