Persistent localized states for a chaotically mixed bistable reaction

We describe the evolution of a bistable chemical reaction in a closed two-dimensional chaotic laminar flow, from a localized initial disturbance. When the fluid mixing is sufficiently slow, the disturbance may spread and eventually occupy the entire fluid domain. By contrast, rapid mixing tends to dilute the initial state and so extinguish the disturbance. Such a dichotomy is well known. However, we report here a hitherto apparently unremarked intermediate case, a persistent highly localized disturbance. Such a localized state arises when the Damkoehler number is great enough to sustain a "hot spot," but not so great as to lead to global spread. We show that such a disturbance is located in the neighborhood of an unstable periodic orbit of the flow, and we describe some limited aspects of its behavior using a reduced, lamellar model. Copyright American Physical Society (APS) 2006.

A Mixed Discontinuous Galerkin Method for Incompressible Magnetohydrodynamics

We introduce and analyze a discontinuous Galerkin method for the numerical discretization of a stationary incompressible magnetohydrodynamics model problem. The fluid unknowns are discretized with inf-sup stable discontinuous P^3_{k}-P_{k-1} elements whereas the magnetic part of the equations is approximated by discontinuous P^3_{k}-P_{k+1} elements. We carry out a complete a-priori error analysis and prove that the energy norm error is convergent of order O(h^k) in the mesh size h. We also show that the method is able to correctly capture and resolve the strongest magnetic singularities in non-convex polyhedral domains. These results are verified in a series of numerical experiments.

Use of posterior predictive assessments to evaluate model fit in multilevel logistic regression

Assessing the fit of a model is an important final step in any statistical analysis, but this is not straightforward when complex discrete response models are used. Cross validation and posterior predictions have been suggested as methods to aid model criticism. In this paper a comparison is made between four methods of model predictive assessment in the context of a three level logistic regression model for clinical mastitis in dairy cattle; cross validation, a prediction using the full posterior predictive distribution and two “mixed” predictive methods that incorporate higher level random effects simulated from the underlying model distribution. Cross validation is considered a gold standard method but is computationally intensive and thus a comparison is made between posterior predictive assessments and cross validation. The analyses revealed that mixed prediction methods produced results close to cross validation whilst the full posterior predictive assessment gave predictions that were over-optimistic (closer to the observed disease rates) compared with cross validation. A mixed prediction method that simulated random effects from both higher levels was best at identifying the outlying level two (farm-year) units of interest. It is concluded that this mixed prediction method, simulating random effects from both higher levels, is straightforward and may be of value in model criticism of multilevel logistic regression, a technique commonly used for animal health data with a hierarchical structure.