Use of posterior predictive assessments to evaluate model fit in multilevel logistic regression

Assessing the fit of a model is an important final step in any statistical analysis, but this is not straightforward when complex discrete response models are used. Cross validation and posterior predictions have been suggested as methods to aid model criticism. In this paper a comparison is made between four methods of model predictive assessment in the context of a three level logistic regression model for clinical mastitis in dairy cattle; cross validation, a prediction using the full posterior predictive distribution and two “mixed” predictive methods that incorporate higher level random effects simulated from the underlying model distribution. Cross validation is considered a gold standard method but is computationally intensive and thus a comparison is made between posterior predictive assessments and cross validation. The analyses revealed that mixed prediction methods produced results close to cross validation whilst the full posterior predictive assessment gave predictions that were over-optimistic (closer to the observed disease rates) compared with cross validation. A mixed prediction method that simulated random effects from both higher levels was best at identifying the outlying level two (farm-year) units of interest. It is concluded that this mixed prediction method, simulating random effects from both higher levels, is straightforward and may be of value in model criticism of multilevel logistic regression, a technique commonly used for animal health data with a hierarchical structure.

Symmetric Interior Penalty DG Methods for the Compressible Navier-Stokes Equations I: Method Formulation

In this article we consider the development of discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods for the numerical approximation of the compressible Navier-Stokes equations. For the discretization of the leading order terms, we propose employing the generalization of the symmetric version of the interior penalty method, originally developed for the numerical approximation of linear self-adjoint second-order elliptic partial differential equations. In order to solve the resulting system of nonlinear equations, we exploit a (damped) Newton-GMRES algorithm. Numerical experiments demonstrating the practical performance of the proposed discontinuous Galerkin method with higher-order polynomials are presented.