Threshold behaviour and final outcome of an epidemic on a random network with household structure

This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within 'households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal size) and along the edges of a random graph describing additional social contacts. Heuristically-motivated branching process approximations are described, which lead to a threshold parameter for the model and methods for calculating the probability of a major outbreak, given few initial infectives, and the expected proportion of the population who are ultimately infected by such a major outbreak. These approximate results are shown to be exact as the number of households tends to infinity by proving associated limit theorems. Moreover, simulation studies indicate that these asymptotic results provide good approximations for modestly-sized finite populations. The extension to unequal sized households is discussed briefly.

Speeding stroke recovery? A systematic review of amphetamine after stroke

Introduction: The use of drugs to enhance recovery (“rehabilitation pharmacology”) has been assessed. Amphetamine can improve outcome in experimental models of stroke, and several small clinical trials have assessed its use in stroke. Methods: Electronic searches were performed to identify randomised controlled trials of amphetamine in stroke (ischaemic or haemorrhagic). Outcomes included functional outcome (assessed as combined death or disability/dependency), safety (death) and haemodynamic measures. Data were analysed as dichotomous or continuous outcomes, using odds ratios (OR), weighted or standardised mean difference, (WMD or SMD) using random-effects models with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI); statistical heterogeneity was assessed. Results: Eleven completed trials (n=329) were identified. Treatment with amphetamine was associated with non-significant trends to increased death (OR 2.78 (95% CI, 0.75– 10.23), n=329, 11 trials) and improved motor scores (WMD 3.28 (95% CI −0.48–7.04) n=257, 9 trials) but had no effect on the combined outcome of death and dependency (OR 1.15 (95% CI 0.65–2.06, n=206, 5 trials). Amphetamine increased systolic blood pressure (WMD 9.3 mmHg, 95% CI 3.3–15.3, n=106, 3 trials) and heart rate (WMD 7.6 beats per minute (bpm), 95% CI 1.8–13.4, n=106, 3 trials). Despite variations in treatment regimes, outcomes and follow-up duration there was no evidence of significant heterogeneity or publication bias. Conclusion: No evidence exists at present to support the use of amphetamine after stroke. Despite a trend to improved motor function, doubts remain over

Granulocyte-colony stimulating factor in experimental stroke and its effects on infarct size and functional outcome: a systematic review

Background Granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) shows promise as a treatment for stroke. This systematic review assesses G-CSF in experimental ischaemic stroke. Methods Relevant studies were identified with searches of Medline, Embase and PubMed. Data were extracted on stroke lesion size, neurological outcome and quality, and analysed using Cochrane Review Manager using random effects models; results are expressed as standardised mean difference (SMD) and odds ratio (OR). Results Data were included from 19 publications incorporating 666 animals. G-CSF reduced lesion size significantly in transient (SMD -1.63, p<0.00001) but not permanent (SMD -1.56, p=0.11) focal models of ischaemia. Lesion size was reduced at all doses and with treatment commenced within 4 hours of transient ischaemia. Neurological deficit (SMD -1.37, p=0.0004) and limb placement (SMD -1.88, p=0.003) improved with G-CSF; however, locomotor activity (>4 weeks post ischaemia) was not (SMD 0.76, p=0.35). Death (OR 0.27, p<0.0001) was reduced with G-CSF. Median study quality was 4 (range 0-7/8); Egger’s test suggested significant publication bias (p=0.001). Conclusions G-CSF significantly reduced lesion size in transient but not permanent models of ischaemic stroke. Motor impairment and death were also reduced. Further studies assessing dose-response, administration time, length of ischaemia and long-term functional recovery are needed.

Does the abundance of hoverfly mimics (Syrphidae) depend on the numbers of their hymenopteran models ?

We tested the prediction that, if hoverflies are Batesian mimics, this may extend to behavioral mimicry such that their numerical abundance at each hour of the day (the daily activity pattern) is related to the numbers of their hymenopteran models. After accounting for site, season, microclimatic responses and for general hoverfly abundance at three sites in north-west England, the residual numbers of mimics were significantly correlated positively with their models 9 times out of 17, while 16 out of 17 relationships were positive, itself a highly significant non-random pattern. Several eristaline flies showed significant relationships with honeybees even though some of them mimic wasps or bumblebees, perhaps reflecting an ancestral resemblance to honeybees. There was no evidence that good and poor mimics differed in their daily activity pattern relationships with models. However, the common mimics showed significant activity pattern relationships with their models, but the rarer mimics did not. We conclude that many hoverflies show behavioral mimicry of their hymenopteran models.

Hybrid Graph Heuristics within a Hyper-heuristic Approach to Exam Timetabling Problems

This paper is concerned with the hybridization of two graph coloring heuristics (Saturation Degree and Largest Degree), and their application within a hyperheuristic for exam timetabling problems. Hyper-heuristics can be seen as algorithms which intelligently select appropriate algorithms/heuristics for solving a problem. We developed a Tabu Search based hyper-heuristic to search for heuristic lists (of graph heuristics) for solving problems and investigated the heuristic lists found by employing knowledge discovery techniques. Two hybrid approaches (involving Saturation Degree and Largest Degree) including one which employs Case Based Reasoning are presented and discussed. Both the Tabu Search based hyper-heuristic and the hybrid approaches are tested on random and real-world exam timetabling problems. Experimental results are comparable with the best state-of-the-art approaches (as measured against established benchmark problems). The results also demonstrate an increased level of generality in our approach.

Analysis of a stochastic SIR epidemic on a random network incorporating household structure

This paper is concerned with a stochastic SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) model for the spread of an epidemic amongst a population of individuals, with a random network of social contacts, that is also partitioned into households. The behaviour of the model as the population size tends to infinity in an appropriate fashion is investigated. A threshold parameter which determines whether or not an epidemic with few initial infectives can become established and lead to a major outbreak is obtained, as are the probability that a major outbreak occurs and the expected proportion of the population that are ultimately infected by such an outbreak, together with methods for calculating these quantities. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that these asymptotic quantities accurately reflect the behaviour of finite populations, even for only moderately sized finite populations. The model is compared and contrasted with related models previously studied in the literature. The effects of the amount of clustering present in the overall population structure and the infectious period distribution on the outcomes of the model are also explored.