Use of posterior predictive assessments to evaluate model fit in multilevel logistic regression

Assessing the fit of a model is an important final step in any statistical analysis, but this is not straightforward when complex discrete response models are used. Cross validation and posterior predictions have been suggested as methods to aid model criticism. In this paper a comparison is made between four methods of model predictive assessment in the context of a three level logistic regression model for clinical mastitis in dairy cattle; cross validation, a prediction using the full posterior predictive distribution and two “mixed” predictive methods that incorporate higher level random effects simulated from the underlying model distribution. Cross validation is considered a gold standard method but is computationally intensive and thus a comparison is made between posterior predictive assessments and cross validation. The analyses revealed that mixed prediction methods produced results close to cross validation whilst the full posterior predictive assessment gave predictions that were over-optimistic (closer to the observed disease rates) compared with cross validation. A mixed prediction method that simulated random effects from both higher levels was best at identifying the outlying level two (farm-year) units of interest. It is concluded that this mixed prediction method, simulating random effects from both higher levels, is straightforward and may be of value in model criticism of multilevel logistic regression, a technique commonly used for animal health data with a hierarchical structure.

PCA 4 DCA: the application of principal component analysis to the Dendritic Cell Algorithm

As one of the newest members in the field of articial immune systems (AIS), the Dendritic Cell Algorithm (DCA) is based on behavioural models of natural dendritic cells (DCs). Unlike other AIS, the DCA does not rely on training data, instead domain or expert knowledge is required to predetermine the mapping between input signals from a particular instance to the three categories used by the DCA. This data preprocessing phase has received the criticism of having manually over-fitted the data to the algorithm, which is undesirable. Therefore, in this paper we have attempted to ascertain if it is possible to use principal component analysis (PCA) techniques to automatically categorise input data while still generating useful and accurate classication results. The integrated system is tested with a biometrics dataset for the stress recognition of automobile drivers. The experimental results have shown the application of PCA to the DCA for the purpose of automated data preprocessing is successful.