Clinical outcome after first and recurrent hemorrhage in patients with untreated brain arteriovenous malformation

Background and Purpose: The morbidity from spontaneous hemorrhage of untreated brain arteriovenous malformations (AVM) is not well described. Methods: The 241 consecutive AVM patients (mean age 3716 years, 52% women) from the prospective Columbia AVM Databank initially presenting with hemorrhage were evaluated using the Rankin Scale (RS) and the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). From the 241 AVM patients, 29 (12%) had subsequent intracranial hemorrhage during follow-up. For further comparisons, 84 non-AVM patients with intracerebral hemorrhage from the Northern Manhattan Study (NOMAS) served as a control group. Results: In 241 AVM patients presenting with hemorrhage the median RS was 2 and the median NIHSS was 1 (49% RS 0 to 1, 61% NIHSS 2). The median time between hemorrhage and clinical evaluation was 11 days (mean 219 days). Recurrent AVM hemorrhage during follow-up resulted in no significant increase in morbidity (median RS 2, P0.004; median NIHSS 3, P0.322; time between hemorrhage and study evaluation: median 55 days, mean 657 days). Among AVM-hemorrhage subtypes, parenchymatous AVM hemorrhage was associated with higher stroke morbidity (odds ratio, 2.9; 95% CI, 1.5 to 5.8 for NIHSS 2) than nonparenchymatous hemorrhages. Parenchymatous AVM hemorrhage had a significantly better outcome (median NIHSS 1) than non-AVM related hemorrhage (median NIHSS 12; P0.0001). Conclusions: Hemorrhage, either at initial presentation or during follow-up of untreated AVM patients appears to carry

Predicting long-term outcome after acute ischemic stroke: a simple index works in patients from controlled clinical trials

Background and Purpose—An early and reliable prognosis for recovery in stroke patients is important for initiation of individual treatment and for informing patients and relatives. We recently developed and validated models for predicting survival and functional independence within 3 months after acute stroke, based on age and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score assessed within 6 hours after stroke. Herein we demonstrate the applicability of our models in an independent sample of patients from controlled clinical trials. Methods—The prognostic models were used to predict survival and functional recovery in 5419 patients from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). Furthermore, we tried to improve the accuracy by adapting intercepts and estimating new model parameters. Results—The original models were able to correctly classify 70.4% (survival) and 72.9% (functional recovery) of patients. Because the prediction was slightly pessimistic for patients in the controlled trials, adapting the intercept improved the accuracy to 74.8% (survival) and 74.0% (functional recovery). Novel estimation of parameters, however, yielded no relevant further improvement. Conclusions—For acute ischemic stroke patients included in controlled trials, our easy-to-apply prognostic models based on age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score correctly predicted survival and functional recovery after 3 months. Furthermore, a simple adaptation helps to adjust for a different prognosis and is recommended if a large data set is available. (Stroke. 2008;39:000-000.)

Cow, farm, and management factors during the dry period that determine the rate of clinical mastitis after calving

The purpose of the research was to investigate cow characteristics, farm facilities, and herd management strategies during the dry period to examine their joint influence on the rate of clinical mastitis after calving. Data were collected over a 2-yr period from 52 commercial dairy farms throughout England and Wales. Cows were separated for analysis into those housed for the dry period (8,710 cow-dry periods) and those at pasture (9,964 cow-dry periods). Multilevel models were used within a Bayesian framework with 2 response variables, the occurrence of a first case of clinical mastitis within the first 30 d of lactation and time to the first case of clinical mastitis during lactation. A variety of cow and herd management factors were identified as being associated with an increased rate of clinical mastitis and these were found to occur throughout the dry period. Significant cow factors were increased parity and at least one somatic cell count ≥200,000 cells/mL in the 90 d before drying off. A number of management factors related to hygiene were significantly associated with an increased rate of clinical mastitis. These included measures linked to the administration of dry-cow treatments and management of the early and late dry-period accommodation and calving areas. Other farm factors associated with a reduced rate of clinical mastitis were vaccination with a leptospirosis vaccine, selection of dry-cow treatments for individual cows within a herd rather than for the herd as a whole, routine body condition scoring of cows at drying off, and a pasture rotation policy of grazing dry cows for a maximum of 2 wk before allowing the pasture to remain nongrazed for a period of 4 wk. Models demonstrated a good ability to predict the farm incidence rate of clinical mastitis in a given year, with model predictions explaining over 85% of the variability in the observed data. The research indicates that specific dry-period management strategies have an important influence on the rate of clinical mastitis during the next lactation.