Threshold behaviour and final outcome of an epidemic on a random network with household structure

This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible-infective-removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within 'households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal size) and along the edges of a random graph describing additional social contacts. Heuristically-motivated branching process approximations are described, which lead to a threshold parameter for the model and methods for calculating the probability of a major outbreak, given few initial infectives, and the expected proportion of the population who are ultimately infected by such a major outbreak. These approximate results are shown to be exact as the number of households tends to infinity by proving associated limit theorems. Moreover, simulation studies indicate that these asymptotic results provide good approximations for modestly-sized finite populations. The extension to unequal sized households is discussed briefly.

Motivation in action: A process model of L2 motivation

As part of a long-term project aimed at designing classroom interventions to motivate language learners, we have searched for a motivation model that could serve as a theoretical basis for the methodological applications. We have found that none of the existing models we considered were entirely adequate for our purpose for three reasons: (1) they did not provide a sufficiently comprehensive and detailed summary of all the relevant motivational influences on classroom behaviour; (2) they tended to focus on how and why people choose certain courses of action, while ignoring or playing down the importance of motivational sources of executing goal-directed behaviour; and (3) they did not do justice to the fact that motivation is not static but dynamically evolving and changing in time, making it necessary for motivation constructs to contain a featured temporal axis. Consequently, partly inspired by Heckhausen and Kuhl's 'Action Control Theory', we have developed a new 'Process Model of L2 Motivation', which is intended both to account for the dynamics of motivational change in time and to synthesise many of the most important motivational conceptualisations to date. In this paper we describe the main components of this model, also listing a number of its limitations which need to be resolved in future research.