Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

Quantifying confinement effects in ice impact loads

Ships and offshore structures, that encounter ice floes, tend to experience loads with varying pressure distributions within the contact patch. The effect of the surrounding ice adjacent to that which is involved in the contact zone has an influence on the effective strength. This effect has come to be called confinement. A methodology for quantifying ice sample confinement is developed, and the confinement is defined using two non-dimensional terms; a ratio of geometries and an angle. Together these terms are used to modify force predictions that account for increased fracturing and spalling at lower confinement levels. Data developed through laboratory experimentation is studied using dimensional analysis. The characteristics of dimensional analysis allow for easy comparison between many different load cases; provided the impact scenario is consistent. In all, a methodology is developed for analyzing ice impact testing considering confinement effects on force levels, with the potential for extrapolating these tests to full size collision events.

Active suspension development based on energy analysis

This research focuses on developing active suspension optimal controllers for two linear and non-linear half-car models. A detailed comparison between quarter-car and half-car active suspension approaches is provided for improving two important scenarios in vehicle dynamics, i.e. ride quality and road holding. Having used a half-car vehicle model, heave and pitch motion are analyzed for those scenarios, with cargo mass as a variable. The governing equations of the system are analysed in a multi-energy domain package, i.e., 20-Sim. System equations are presented in the bond-graph language to facilitate calculation of energy usage. The results present optimum set of gains for both ride quality and road holding scenarios are the gains which has derived when maximum allowable cargo mass is considered for the vehicle. The energy implications of substituting passive suspension units with active ones are studied by considering not only the energy used by the actuator, but also the reduction in energy lost through the passive damper. Energy analysis showed less energy was dissipated in shock absorbers when either quarter-car or half-car controllers were used instead of passive suspension. It was seen that more energy could be saved by using half-car active controllers than the quarter-car ones. Results also proved that using active suspension units, whether quarter-car or half-car based, under those realistic limitations is energy-efficient and suggested.