Integrated sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty propagation analysis approaches for supporting hydrological modeling

The successful performance of a hydrological model is usually challenged by the quality of the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty analysis carried out in the modeling exercise and subsequent simulation results. This is especially important under changing climatic conditions where there are more uncertainties associated with climate models and downscaling processes that increase the complexities of the hydrological modeling system. In response to these challenges and to improve the performance of the hydrological models under changing climatic conditions, this research proposed five new methods for supporting hydrological modeling. First, a design of experiment aided sensitivity analysis and parameterization (DOE-SAP) method was proposed to investigate the significant parameters and provide more reliable sensitivity analysis for improving parameterization during hydrological modeling. The better calibration results along with the advanced sensitivity analysis for significant parameters and their interactions were achieved in the case study. Second, a comprehensive uncertainty evaluation scheme was developed to evaluate three uncertainty analysis methods, the sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 (SUFI-2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Parameter solution (ParaSol) methods. The results showed that the SUFI-2 performed better than the other two methods based on calibration and uncertainty analysis results. The proposed evaluation scheme demonstrated that it is capable of selecting the most suitable uncertainty method for case studies. Third, a novel sequential multi-criteria based calibration and uncertainty analysis (SMC-CUA) method was proposed to improve the efficiency of calibration and uncertainty analysis and control the phenomenon of equifinality. The results showed that the SMC-CUA method was able to provide better uncertainty analysis results with high computational efficiency compared to the SUFI-2 and GLUE methods and control parameter uncertainty and the equifinality effect without sacrificing simulation performance. Fourth, an innovative response based statistical evaluation method (RESEM) was proposed for estimating the uncertainty propagated effects and providing long-term prediction for hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions. By using RESEM, the uncertainty propagated from statistical downscaling to hydrological modeling can be evaluated. Fifth, an integrated simulation-based evaluation system for uncertainty propagation analysis (ISES-UPA) was proposed for investigating the effects and contributions of different uncertainty components to the total propagated uncertainty from statistical downscaling. Using ISES-UPA, the uncertainty from statistical downscaling, uncertainty from hydrological modeling, and the total uncertainty from two uncertainty sources can be compared and quantified. The feasibility of all the methods has been tested using hypothetical and real-world case studies. The proposed methods can also be integrated as a hydrological modeling system to better support hydrological studies under changing climatic conditions. The results from the proposed integrated hydrological modeling system can be used as scientific references for decision makers to reduce the potential risk of damages caused by extreme events for long-term water resource management and planning.

Mineralogy, mineral chemistry, and genesis of precious metal-bearing volcanogenic massive sulfide deposits in the Newfoundland Appalachians, Canada: the Ming deposit as example

The Ming deposit, Newfoundland Appalachians, is a metamorphosed (upper greenschist to lower amphibolite facies), Cambro-Ordovician, bimodalmafic volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS) deposit that consists of several, spatially-associated, elongated orebodies composed of stratabound semimassive to massive sulfides and/or discordant sulfide stringers in a rhyodacitic footwall. Copper is the main commodity; however, the deposit contains precious metal-bearing zones with elevated Au grades. In this study, field observations, microscopy, and micro-analytical tools including electron microprobe, laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry, and secondary ion mass spectrometry were used to constrain the relative timing of precious metal emplacement, the physico-chemical conditions of hydrothermal fluid precipitation, and the sources of sulfur, precious metals, semi-metals and metals. The ore mineral assemblage is complex and indicates an intermediate sulfidation state. Pyrite and chalcopyrite are the dominant ore minerals with minor sphalerite and pyrrhotite, and trace galena, arsenopyrite and cubanite. Additional trace phases include tellurides, NiSb phases, sulfosalts, electrum, AgHg±Au alloys, and oxides. Silver phases and precious metals occur predominantly in semi-massive and massive sulfides as free grains, and as grains spatially associated with arsenopyrite and/or sulfosalts. Precious metal phases occurring between recrystallized pyrite and within cataclastic pyrite are rare. Hence, the complex ore assemblage and textures strongly suggest syngenetic precious metal emplacement, whereas metamorphism and deformation only internally and locally remobilized precious metal phases. The ore assemblage formed from reduced, acidic hydrothermal fluids over a range of temperatures (≈350 to below 260ºC). The abundance of telluride and Ag-bearing tetrahedrite, however, varies strongly between the different orebodies indicating variable ƒTe₂, ƒSe₂, mBi, and mSb within the hydrothermal fluids. The variations in the concentrations of semi-metals and metals (As, Bi, Hg, Sb, Se, Te), as well as Au and Ag, were due to variations in temperature but also to a likely contribution of magmatic fluids into the VMS hydrothermal system from presumably different geothermal reservoirs. Sulfur isotope studies indicate at least two sulfur sources: sulfur from thermochemically-reduced seawater sulfate and igneous sulfur. The source of igneous sulfur is the igneous footwall, direct magmatic fluid/volatiles, or both. Upper greenschist to lower amphibolite metamorphic conditions and deformation had no significant effect on the sulfur isotope composition of the sulfides at the Ming deposit.

A framework for better understanding drinking-water quality in Happy Valley-Goose Bay, Labrador: Implications for optimization and protection of municipally supplied water

This research project was driven by the recurring complaints and concerns voiced in the media by residents living in the Valley area of the community of Happy Valley-Goose Bay, Labrador. Drinking water in this town is supplied by two water treatment plants (a municipality treatment plant and a DND treatment plant), which use raw water from two different sources (groundwater from multiple wells versus surface water from Spring Gulch brook) and use two different processes of drinking-water treatment. In fact, the drinking water supplied in the Valley area has a unique distribution arrangement. To meet demand, the Valley area is served by a blend of treated waters from a storage reservoir (Sandhill reservoir), which is fed by both water treatment plants. Most of the time, treated water from the municipal treatment plant dominates in the mixture. As water travels through the distribution system and household plumbing, specific reactions can occur either in the water itself and/or at the solid–liquid interface at the pipe walls; this is strongly influenced by the physical and chemical characteristics of the water. These reactions can introduce undesirable chemical compounds and/or favor the growth of bacteria in the drinking water, causing the deterioration of the quality of water reaching the consumer taps. In the distribution system in general, these chemical constituents and bacteria may pose potential threats to health or the water’s aesthetic qualities (smell, taste or appearance). Drinking water should be not only safe, but also palatable.