Availability estimation and management for complex processing systems

“Availability” is the terminology used in asset intensive industries such as petrochemical and hydrocarbons processing to describe the readiness of equipment, systems or plants to perform their designed functions. It is a measure to suggest a facility’s capability of meeting targeted production in a safe working environment. Availability is also vital as it encompasses reliability and maintainability, allowing engineers to manage and operate facilities by focusing on one performance indicator. These benefits make availability a very demanding and highly desired area of interest and research for both industry and academia. In this dissertation, new models, approaches and algorithms have been explored to estimate and manage the availability of complex hydrocarbon processing systems. The risk of equipment failure and its effect on availability is vital in the hydrocarbon industry, and is also explored in this research. The importance of availability encouraged companies to invest in this domain by putting efforts and resources to develop novel techniques for system availability enhancement. Most of the work in this area is focused on individual equipment compared to facility or system level availability assessment and management. This research is focused on developing an new systematic methods to estimate system availability. The main focus areas in this research are to address availability estimation and management through physical asset management, risk-based availability estimation strategies, availability and safety using a failure assessment framework, and availability enhancement using early equipment fault detection and maintenance scheduling optimization.

A probabilistic approach to assess hydrate formation and design preventive measures

Formation of hydrates is one of the major flow assurance problems faced by the oil and gas industry. Hydrates tend to form in natural gas pipelines with the presence of water and favorable temperature and pressure conditions, generally low temperatures and corresponding high pressures. Agglomeration of hydrates can result in blockage of flowlines and equipment, which can be time consuming to remove in subsea equipment and cause safety issues. Natural gas pipelines are more susceptible to burst and explosion owing to hydrate plugging. Therefore, a rigorous risk-assessment related to hydrate formation is required, which assists in preventing hydrate blockage and ensuring equipment integrity. This thesis presents a novel methodology to assess the probability of hydrate formation and presents a risk-based approach to determine the parameters of winterization schemes to avoid hydrate formation in natural gas pipelines operating in Arctic conditions. It also presents a lab-scale multiphase flow loop to study the effects of geometric and hydrodynamic parameters on hydrate formation and discusses the effects of geometric and hydrodynamic parameters on multiphase development length of a pipeline. Therefore, this study substantially contributes to the assessment of probability of hydrate formation and the decision making process of winterization strategies to prevent hydrate formation in Arctic conditions.