Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

Regional flood frequency analysis for Newfoundland and Labrador using the L-Moments index-flood method

The L-moments based index-flood procedure had been successfully applied for Regional Flood Frequency Analysis (RFFA) for the Island of Newfoundland in 2002 using data up to 1998. This thesis, however, considered both Labrador and the Island of Newfoundland using the L-Moments index-flood method with flood data up to 2013. For Labrador, the homogeneity test showed that Labrador can be treated as a single homogeneous region and the generalized extreme value (GEV) was found to be more robust than any other frequency distributions. The drainage area (DA) is the only significant variable for estimating the index-flood at ungauged sites in Labrador. In previous studies, the Island of Newfoundland has been considered as four homogeneous regions (A,B,C and D) as well as two Water Survey of Canada's Y and Z sub-regions. Homogeneous regions based on Y and Z was found to provide more accurate quantile estimates than those based on four homogeneous regions. Goodness-of-fit test results showed that the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution is most suitable for the sub-regions; however, the three-parameter lognormal (LN3) gave a better performance in terms of robustness. The best fitting regional frequency distribution from 2002 has now been updated with the latest flood data, but quantile estimates with the new data were not very different from the previous study. Overall, in terms of quantile estimation, in both Labrador and the Island of Newfoundland, the index-flood procedure based on L-moments is highly recommended as it provided consistent and more accurate result than other techniques such as the regression on quantile technique that is currently used by the government.

The mosses of Terra Nova National Park, Eastern Newfoundland, a bryofloristic analysis and interpretation

The known moss flora of Terra Nova National Park, eastern Newfoundland, comp~ises 210 species. Eighty-two percent of the moss species occurring in Terra Nova are widespread or widespread-sporadic in Newfoundland. Other Newfoundland distributional elements present in the Terra Nova moss flora are the northwestern, southern, southeastern, and disjunct elements, but four of the mosses occurring in Terra Nova appear to belong to a previously unrecognized northeastern element of the Newfoundland flora. The majority (70.9%) of Terra Nova's mosses are of boreal affinity and are widely distributed in the North American coniferous forest belt. An additional 10.5 percent of the Terra Nova mosses are cosmopolitan while 9.5 percent are temperate and 4.8 percent are arctic-montane species. The remaining 4.3 percent of the mosses are of montane affinity, and disjunct between eastern and western North America. In Terra Nova, temperate species at their northern limit are concentrated in balsam fir stands, while arctic-montane species are restricted to exposed cliffs, scree slopes, and coastal exposures. Montane species are largely confined to exposed or freshwater habitats. Inability to tolerate high summer temperatures limits the distributions of both arctic-montane and montane species. In Terra Nova, species of differing phytogeographic affinities co-occur on cliffs and scree slopes. The microhabitat relationships of five selected species from such habitats were evaluated by Discriminant Functions Analysis and Multiple Regression Analysis. The five mosses have distinct and different microhabitats on cliffs and scree slopes in Terra Nova, and abundance of all but one is associated with variation in at least one microhabitat variable. Micro-distribution of Grimmia torquata, an arctic-montane species at its southern limit, appears to be deterJ]lined by sensitivity to high summer temperatures. Both southern mosses at their northern limit (Aulacomnium androgynum, Isothecium myosuroides) appear to be limited by water availability and, possibly, by low winter temperatures. The two species whose distributions extend both north and south or the study area (Encalypta procera, Eurhynchium pulchellum) show no clear relationship with microclimate. Dispersal factors have played a significant role in the development of the Terra Nova moss flora. Compared to the most likely colonizing source (i .e. the rest of the island of Newfoundland), species with small diaspores have colonized the study area to a proportionately much greater extent than have species with large diaspores. Hierarchical log-linear analysis indicates that this is so for all affinity groups present in Terra Nova. The apparent dispersal effects emphasize the comparatively recent glaciation of the area, and may also have been enhanced by anthropogenic influences. The restriction of some species to specific habitats, or to narrowly defined microhabitats, appears to strengthen selection for easily dispersed taxa.

Biological factors affecting sea survival of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L., in Western Arm Brook and an analysis of selection by the commercial fishery of nearby St. Barbe Bay, Newfoundland

The problems faced by scientists in charge of managing Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) stocks are : i) how to maintain spawning runs consisting of repeat spawners and large multi-sea-winter (MSW) adults in the face of selective homewater and distant commercial fisheries and , ii) how to more accurately predict returns of adults. Using data from scales collected from maiden Atlantic salmon grilse from two locations on the Northern Peninsula of Newfoundland, St. Barbe Bay and Western Arm Brook, their length at smolting was back calculated. These data were then used to examine whether the St. Barbe commercial fishery is selective for salmon of particular smolt age and/or size. Analysis indicated that come commercial fishery selected larger, but not necessarily older adults that those escaping to Western Arm Brook over the period of this study, 1978-1987. It was determined that less than average size smolts survived better than above average size smolts. Slection for repeat spawners, large MSW salmon, and larger grilse has meant reductions in the proportions of these adults in the spawning runs on Western Arm Brook. This may impact the Western Arm Brook salmon stock by increasing the population instability. Sea survival was significantly correlated with selection by the commercial fishery. Characteristics of adults in Western Arm Brook during the period of study (1978-1987) did not help in explaining yearly variation in sea survival. The characteristics of smolts, however, when subjected to multiple regression analysis explained 57.2 percent of the yearly variation in sea survival.