Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

Functional genomic and molecular analyses of transcripts related to glycerol synthesis and trafficking in rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) using cold temperature-induced models of glycerol production

The rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) is an anadromous teleost that produces type II antifreeze protein (AFP) and accumulates modest urea and high glycerol levels in plasma and tissues as adaptive cryoprotectant mechanisms in sub-zero temperatures. It is known that glyceroneogenesis occurs in liver via a branch in glycolysis and gluconeogenesis and is activated by low temperature; however, the precise mechanisms of glycerol synthesis and trafficking in smelt remain to be elucidated. The objective of this thesis was to provide further insight using functional genomic techniques [e.g. suppression subtractive hybridization (SSH) cDNA library construction, microarray analyses] and molecular analyses [e.g. cloning, quantitative reverse transcription - polymerase chain reaction (QPCR)]. Novel molecular mechanisms related to glyceroneogenesis were deciphered by comparing the transcript expression profiles of glycerol (cold temperature) and non-glycerol (warm temperature) accumulating hepatocytes (Chapter 2) and livers from intact smelt (Chapter 3). Briefly, glycerol synthesis can be initiated from both amino acids and carbohydrate; however carbohydrate appears to be the preferred source when it is readily available. In glycerol accumulating hepatocytes, levels of the hepatic glucose transporter (GLUT2) plummeted and transcript levels of a suite of genes (PEPCK, MDH2, AAT2, GDH and AQP9) associated with the mobilization of amino acids to fuel glycerol synthesis were all transiently higher. In contrast, in glycerol accumulating livers from intact smelt, glycerol synthesis was primarily fuelled by glycogen degradation with higher PGM and PFK (glycolysis) transcript levels. Whether initiated from amino acids or carbohydrate, there were common metabolic underpinnings. Increased PDK2 (an inhibitor of PDH) transcript levels would direct pyruvate derived from amino acids and / or DHAP derived from G6P to glycerol as opposed to oxidation via the citric acid cycle. Robust LIPL (triglyceride catabolism) transcript levels would provide free fatty acids that could be oxidized to fuel ATP synthesis. Increased cGPDH (glyceroneogenesis) transcript levels were not required for increased glycerol production, suggesting that regulation is more likely by post-translational modification. Finally, levels of a transcript potentially encoding glycerol-3-phosphatase, an enzyme not yet characterized in any vertebrate species, were transiently higher. These comparisons also led to the novel discoveries that increased G6Pase (glucose synthesis) and increased GS (glutamine synthesis) transcript levels were part of the low temperature response in smelt. Glucose may provide increased colligative protection against freezing; whereas glutamine could serve to store nitrogen released from amino acid catabolism in a non-toxic form and / or be used to synthesize urea via purine synthesis-uricolysis. Novel key aspects of cryoprotectant osmolyte (glycerol and urea) trafficking were elucidated by cloning and characterizing three aquaglyceroporin (GLP)-encoding genes from smelt at the gene and cDNA levels in Chapter 4. GLPs are integral membrane proteins that facilitate passive movement of water, glycerol and urea across cellular membranes. The highlight was the discovery that AQP10ba transcript levels always increase in posterior kidney only at low temperature. This AQP10b gene paralogue may have evolved to aid in the reabsorption of urea from the proximal tubule. This research has contributed significantly to a general understanding of the cold adaptation response in smelt, and more specifically to the development of a working scenario for the mechanisms involved in glycerol synthesis and trafficking in this species.