Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

An application of evolutionary algorithms for WAG optimisation in the Norne Field

Water-alternating-gas (WAG) is an enhanced oil recovery method combining the improved macroscopic sweep of water flooding with the improved microscopic displacement of gas injection. The optimal design of the WAG parameters is usually based on numerical reservoir simulation via trial and error, limited by the reservoir engineer’s availability. Employing optimisation techniques can guide the simulation runs and reduce the number of function evaluations. In this study, robust evolutionary algorithms are utilized to optimise hydrocarbon WAG performance in the E-segment of the Norne field. The first objective function is selected to be the net present value (NPV) and two global semi-random search strategies, a genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimisation (PSO) are tested on different case studies with different numbers of controlling variables which are sampled from the set of water and gas injection rates, bottom-hole pressures of the oil production wells, cycle ratio, cycle time, the composition of the injected hydrocarbon gas (miscible/immiscible WAG) and the total WAG period. In progressive experiments, the number of decision-making variables is increased, increasing the problem complexity while potentially improving the efficacy of the WAG process. The second objective function is selected to be the incremental recovery factor (IRF) within a fixed total WAG simulation time and it is optimised using the same optimisation algorithms. The results from the two optimisation techniques are analyzed and their performance, convergence speed and the quality of the optimal solutions found by the algorithms in multiple trials are compared for each experiment. The distinctions between the optimal WAG parameters resulting from NPV and oil recovery optimisation are also examined. This is the first known work optimising over this complete set of WAG variables. The first use of PSO to optimise a WAG project at the field scale is also illustrated. Compared to the reference cases, the best overall values of the objective functions found by GA and PSO were 13.8% and 14.2% higher, respectively, if NPV is optimised over all the above variables, and 14.2% and 16.2% higher, respectively, if IRF is optimised.