Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

Advanced thermal analysis of microelectronics using spreading resistance models

Thermal analysis of electronic devices is one of the most important steps for designing of modern devices. Precise thermal analysis is essential for designing an effective thermal management system of modern electronic devices such as batteries, LEDs, microelectronics, ICs, circuit boards, semiconductors and heat spreaders. For having a precise thermal analysis, the temperature profile and thermal spreading resistance of the device should be calculated by considering the geometry, property and boundary conditions. Thermal spreading resistance occurs when heat enters through a portion of a surface and flows by conduction. It is the primary source of thermal resistance when heat flows from a tiny heat source to a thin and wide heat spreader. In this thesis, analytical models for modeling the temperature behavior and thermal resistance in some common geometries of microelectronic devices such as heat channels and heat tubes are investigated. Different boundary conditions for the system are considered. Along the source plane, a combination of discretely specified heat flux, specified temperatures and adiabatic condition are studied. Along the walls of the system, adiabatic or convective cooling boundary conditions are assumed. Along the sink plane, convective cooling with constant or variable heat transfer coefficient are considered. Also, the effect of orthotropic properties is discussed. This thesis contains nine chapters. Chapter one is the introduction and shows the concepts of thermal spreading resistance besides the originality and importance of the work. Chapter two reviews the literatures on the thermal spreading resistance in the past fifty years with a focus on the recent advances. In chapters three and four, thermal resistance of a twodimensional flux channel with non-uniform convection coefficient in the heat sink plane is studied. The non-uniform convection is modeled by using two functions than can simulate a wide variety of different heat sink configurations. In chapter five, a non-symmetrical flux channel with different heat transfer coefficient along the right and left edges and sink plane is analytically modeled. Due to the edge cooling and non-symmetry, the eigenvalues of the system are defined using the heat transfer coefficient on both edges and for satisfying the orthogonality condition, a normalized function is calculated. In chapter six, thermal behavior of two-dimensional rectangular flux channel with arbitrary boundary conditions on the source plane is presented. The boundary condition along the source plane can be a combination of the first kind boundary condition (Dirichlet or prescribed temperature) and the second kind boundary condition (Neumann or prescribed heat flux). The proposed solution can be used for modeling the flux channels with numerous different source plane boundary conditions without any limitations in the number and position of heat sources. In chapter seven, temperature profile of a circular flux tube with discretely specified boundary conditions along the source plane is presented. Also, the effect of orthotropic properties are discussed. In chapter 8, a three-dimensional rectangular flux channel with a non-uniform heat convection along the heat sink plane is analytically modeled. In chapter nine, a summary of the achievements is presented and some systems are proposed for the future studies. It is worth mentioning that all the models and case studies in the thesis are compared with the Finite Element Method (FEM).