Integrated sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty propagation analysis approaches for supporting hydrological modeling

The successful performance of a hydrological model is usually challenged by the quality of the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty analysis carried out in the modeling exercise and subsequent simulation results. This is especially important under changing climatic conditions where there are more uncertainties associated with climate models and downscaling processes that increase the complexities of the hydrological modeling system. In response to these challenges and to improve the performance of the hydrological models under changing climatic conditions, this research proposed five new methods for supporting hydrological modeling. First, a design of experiment aided sensitivity analysis and parameterization (DOE-SAP) method was proposed to investigate the significant parameters and provide more reliable sensitivity analysis for improving parameterization during hydrological modeling. The better calibration results along with the advanced sensitivity analysis for significant parameters and their interactions were achieved in the case study. Second, a comprehensive uncertainty evaluation scheme was developed to evaluate three uncertainty analysis methods, the sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 (SUFI-2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Parameter solution (ParaSol) methods. The results showed that the SUFI-2 performed better than the other two methods based on calibration and uncertainty analysis results. The proposed evaluation scheme demonstrated that it is capable of selecting the most suitable uncertainty method for case studies. Third, a novel sequential multi-criteria based calibration and uncertainty analysis (SMC-CUA) method was proposed to improve the efficiency of calibration and uncertainty analysis and control the phenomenon of equifinality. The results showed that the SMC-CUA method was able to provide better uncertainty analysis results with high computational efficiency compared to the SUFI-2 and GLUE methods and control parameter uncertainty and the equifinality effect without sacrificing simulation performance. Fourth, an innovative response based statistical evaluation method (RESEM) was proposed for estimating the uncertainty propagated effects and providing long-term prediction for hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions. By using RESEM, the uncertainty propagated from statistical downscaling to hydrological modeling can be evaluated. Fifth, an integrated simulation-based evaluation system for uncertainty propagation analysis (ISES-UPA) was proposed for investigating the effects and contributions of different uncertainty components to the total propagated uncertainty from statistical downscaling. Using ISES-UPA, the uncertainty from statistical downscaling, uncertainty from hydrological modeling, and the total uncertainty from two uncertainty sources can be compared and quantified. The feasibility of all the methods has been tested using hypothetical and real-world case studies. The proposed methods can also be integrated as a hydrological modeling system to better support hydrological studies under changing climatic conditions. The results from the proposed integrated hydrological modeling system can be used as scientific references for decision makers to reduce the potential risk of damages caused by extreme events for long-term water resource management and planning.

Analysis of bio-derived platform chemicals in ionic liquid media by desorption/ionization mass spectrometry

In this work, desorption/ionization mass spectrometry was employed for the analysis of sugars and small platform chemicals that are common intermediates in biomass transformation reactions. Specifically, matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI) and desorption electrospray ionization (DESI) mass spectrometric techniques were employed as alternatives to traditional chromatographic methods. Ionic liquid matrices (ILMs) were designed based on traditional solid MALDI matrices (2,5-dihydroxybenzoic acid (DHB) and α-cyano-4-hydroxycinnamic acid (CHCA)) and 1,3-dialkylimidazolium ionic liquids ([BMIM]Cl, [EMIM]Cl, and [EMIM]OAc) that have been employed as reaction media for biomass transformation reactions such as the conversion of carbohydrates to valuable platform chemicals. Although two new ILMs were synthesized ([EMIM][DHB] and [EMIM][CHCA] from [EMIM]OAc), chloride-containing ILs did not react with matrices and resulted in mixtures of IL and matrix in solution. Compared to the parent solid matrices, much less matrix interference was observed in the low mass region of the mass spectrum (< 500 Da) using each of the IL-matrices. Furthermore, the formation of a true ILM (i.e. a new ion pair) does not appear to be necessary for analyte ionization. MALDI sample preparation techniques were optimized based on the compatibility with analyte, IL and matrix. ILMs and IL-matrix mixtures of DHB allowed for qualitative analysis of glucose, fructose, sucrose and N-acetyl-D-glucosamine. Analogous CHCA-containing ILMs did not result in appreciable analyte signals under similar conditions. Small platform compounds such as 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (HMF) and levulinic acid were not detected by direct analysis using MALDI-MS. Furthermore, sugar analyte signals were only detected at relatively high matrix:IL:analyte ratios (1:1:1) due to significant matrix and analyte suppression by the IL ions. Therefore, chemical modification of analytes with glycidyltrimethylammonium chloride (GTMA) was employed to extend this method to quantitative applications. Derivatization was accomplished in aqueous IL solutions with fair reaction efficiencies (36.9 – 48.4 % glucose conversion). Calibration curves of derivatized glucose-GTMA yielded good linearity in all solvent systems tested, with decreased % RSDs of analyte ion signals in IL solutions as compared to purely aqueous systems (1.2 – 7.2 % and 4.2 – 8.7 %, respectively). Derivatization resulted in a substantial increase in sensitivity for MALDI-MS analyses: glucose was reliably detected at IL:analyte ratios of 100:1 (as compared to 1:1 prior to derivatization). Screening of all test analytes resulted in appreciable analyte signals in MALDI-MS spectra, including both HMF and levulinic acid. Using appropriate internal standards, calibration curves were constructed and this method was employed for monitoring a model dehydration reaction of fructose to HMF in [BMIM]Cl. Calibration curves showed wide dynamic ranges (LOD – 100 ng fructose/μg [BMIM]Cl, LOD – 75 ng HMF/μg [BMIM]Cl) with correlation coefficients of 0.9973 (fructose) and 0.9931 (HMF). LODs were estimated from the calibration data to be 7.2 ng fructose/μg [BMIM]Cl and 7.5 ng HMF/μg [BMIM]Cl, however relatively high S/N ratios at these concentrations indicate that these values are likely overestimated. Application of this method allowed for the rapid acquisition of quantitative data without the need for prior separation of analyte and IL. Finally, small molecule platform chemicals HMF and levulinic acid were qualitatively analyzed by DESI-MS. Both HMF and levulinic acid were easily ionized and the corresponding molecular ions were easily detected in the presence of 10 – 100 times IL, without the need for chemical modification prior to analysis. DESI-MS analysis of ILs in positive and negative ion modes resulted in few ions in the low mass region, showing great potential for the analysis of small molecules in IL media.