Dynamic fault tree analysis with PEWMA modeling of event rates and Bayesian updating of material balance parameters using MCMC

This research explores Bayesian updating as a tool for estimating parameters probabilistically by dynamic analysis of data sequences. Two distinct Bayesian updating methodologies are assessed. The first approach focuses on Bayesian updating of failure rates for primary events in fault trees. A Poisson Exponentially Moving Average (PEWMA) model is implemnented to carry out Bayesian updating of failure rates for individual primary events in the fault tree. To provide a basis for testing of the PEWMA model, a fault tree is developed based on the Texas City Refinery incident which occurred in 2005. A qualitative fault tree analysis is then carried out to obtain a logical expression for the top event. A dynamic Fault Tree analysis is carried out by evaluating the top event probability at each Bayesian updating step by Monte Carlo sampling from posterior failure rate distributions. It is demonstrated that PEWMA modeling is advantageous over conventional conjugate Poisson-Gamma updating techniques when failure data is collected over long time spans. The second approach focuses on Bayesian updating of parameters in non-linear forward models. Specifically, the technique is applied to the hydrocarbon material balance equation. In order to test the accuracy of the implemented Bayesian updating models, a synthetic data set is developed using the Eclipse reservoir simulator. Both structured grid and MCMC sampling based solution techniques are implemented and are shown to model the synthetic data set with good accuracy. Furthermore, a graphical analysis shows that the implemented MCMC model displays good convergence properties. A case study demonstrates that Likelihood variance affects the rate at which the posterior assimilates information from the measured data sequence. Error in the measured data significantly affects the accuracy of the posterior parameter distributions. Increasing the likelihood variance mitigates random measurement errors, but casuses the overall variance of the posterior to increase. Bayesian updating is shown to be advantageous over deterministic regression techniques as it allows for incorporation of prior belief and full modeling uncertainty over the parameter ranges. As such, the Bayesian approach to estimation of parameters in the material balance equation shows utility for incorporation into reservoir engineering workflows.

Experimental investigation of water, snow and granular ice effects on ice failure processes and impact loads

A large series of laboratory ice crushing experiments was performed to investigate the effects of external boundary condition and indenter contact geometry on ice load magnitude under crushing conditions. Four boundary conditions were considered: dry cases, submerged cases, and cases with the presence of snow and granular ice material on the indenter surface. Indenter geometries were a flat plate, wedge shaped indenter, (reverse) conical indenter, and spherical indenter. These were impacted with artificially produced ice specimens of conical shape with 20° and 30° cone angles. All indenter – ice combinations were tested in dry and submerged environments at 1 mm/s and 100 mm/s indentation rates. Additional tests with the flat indentation plate were conducted at 10 mm/s impact velocity and a subset of scenarios with snow and granular ice material was evaluated. The tests were performed using a material testing system (MTS) machine located inside a cold room at an ambient temperature of - 7°C. Data acquisition comprised time, vertical force, and displacement. In several tests with the flat plate and wedge shaped indenter, supplementary information on local pressure patterns and contact area were obtained using tactile pressure sensors. All tests were recorded with a high speed video camera and still photos were taken before and after each test. Thin sections were taken of some specimens as well. Ice loads were found to strongly depend on contact condition, interrelated with pre-existing confinement and indentation rate. Submergence yielded higher forces, especially at the high indentation rate. This was very evident for the flat indentation plate and spherical indenter, and with restrictions for the wedge shaped indenter. No indication was found for the conical indenter. For the conical indenter it was concluded that the structural restriction due to the indenter geometry was dominating. The working surface for the water to act was not sufficient to influence the failure processes and associated ice loads. The presence of snow and granular ice significantly increased the forces at the low indentation rate (with the flat indentation plate) that were higher compared to submerged cases and far above the dry contact condition. Contact area measurements revealed a correlation of higher forces with a concurrent increase in actual contact area that depended on the respective boundary condition. In submergence, ice debris constitution was changed; ice extrusion, as well as crack development and propagation were impeded. Snow and granular ice seemed to provide additional material sources for establishing larger contact areas. The dry contact condition generally had the smallest real contact area, as well as the lowest forces. The comparison of nominal and measured contact areas revealed distinct deviations. The incorporation of those differences in contact process pressures-area relationships indicated that the overall process pressure was not substantially affected by the increased loads.