Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Influence of type of binder and sand on the characteristics of masonry mortars

This study deals with the characterization of masonry mortars produced with different binders and sands. Several properties of the mortars were determined, like consistence, compressive and flexural strengths, shrinkage and fracture energy. By varying the type of binder (Portland cement, hydrated lime and hydraulic lime) and the type of sand (natural or artificial), it was possible to draw some conclusions about the influence of the composition on mortars properties. The results showed that the use of Portland cement makes the achievement of high strength classes easier. This was due to the slower hardening of lime compared with cement. The results of fracture energy tests showed much higher values for artificial sand mortars when compared with natural sand ones. This is due to the higher roughness of artificial sand particles which provided better adhesion between sand and binder.

Exploring the potentialities of a new type of CFRP laminate for the simultaneous flexural and shear strengthening of RC beams: numerical research

This study aims to develop an innovative carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) laminate with a U configuration to address strengthening interventions, where the increment of both flexural and shear capacity of reinforced concrete (RC) elements is required. This strengthening solution combines the near surface mounted (NSM) and embedded through section (ETS) techniques in the same application, since these techniques have already evidenced high performance on flexural and shear strengthening of RC beams using FRP systems, respectively. In fact, the proposed hybrid technique aims to mobilize the advantages provided by these two strengthening techniques by using an innovative CFRP laminate. The strengthening efficacy of this new hybrid NSM/ETS technique was numerically assessed and compared to the corresponding efficiency of NSM and ETS techniques applied separately for the flexural and shear strengthening of RC beams, respectively. The numerical models are described and the main relevant results are presented and discussed.

Predicting type of delivery by identification of obstetric risk factors through data mining

In Maternity Care, a quick decision has to be made about the most suitable delivery type for the current patient. Guidelines are followed by physicians to support that decision; however, those practice recommendations are limited and underused. In the last years, caesarean delivery has been pursued in over 28% of pregnancies, and other operative techniques regarding specific problems have also been excessively employed. This study identifies obstetric and pregnancy factors that can be used to predict the most appropriate delivery technique, through the induction of data mining models using real data gathered in the perinatal and maternal care unit of Centro Hospitalar of Oporto (CHP). Predicting the type of birth envisions high-quality services, increased safety and effectiveness of specific practices to help guide maternity care decisions and facilitate optimal outcomes in mother and child. In this work was possible to acquire good results, achieving sensitivity and specificity values of 90.11% and 80.05%, respectively, providing the CHP with a model capable of correctly identify caesarean sections and vaginal deliveries.

Tunnel engineering – influence of the type and the quantity of measurements in the back analysis of geomechanical parameters

The monitoring data collected during tunnel excavation can be used in inverse analysis procedures in order to identify more realistic geomechanical parameters that can increase the knowledge about the interested formations. These more realistic parameters can be used in real time to adapt the project to the real structure in situ behaviour. However, monitoring plans are normally designed for safety assessment and not especially for the purpose of inverse analysis. In fact, there is a lack of knowledge about what types and quantity of measurements are needed to succeed in identifying the parameters of interest. Also, the optimisation algorithm chosen for the identification procedure may be important for this matter. In this work, this problem is addressed using a theoretical case with which a thorough parametric study was carried out using two optimisation algorithms based on different calculation paradigms, namely a conventional gradient-based algorithm and an evolution strategy algorithm. Calculations were carried for different sets of parameters to identify several combinations of types and amount of monitoring data. The results clearly show the high importance of the available monitoring data and the chosen algorithm for the success rate of the inverse analysis process.

Effect of ionic liquid anion type in the performance of solid polymer electrolytes based on Poly(Vinylidene fluoride-trifluoroethylene)

The effect of different anions within the ionic liquid in the characteristics of solid polymer electrolytes (SPEs) based on P(VDF-TrFE) has been investigated. 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium acetate, [C2mim][OAc], 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium triflate, [C2mim][(CF3SO3)3], 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium lactate, [C2mim][Lactate], 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium thiocyanate, [C2mim][SNC] and 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium hydrogen sulphate [C2mim][HSO4] have been used in SPE prepared by thermally induced phase separation (TIPS). The polymer phase, thermal and electrochemical properties of the SPE have been determined. The thermal and electrical properties of the SPEs strongly depend on the selected IL, as determined by their different interactions with the polymer matrix. The room temperature ionic conductivity increases in the following way for the different anions: [SNC] > [CF3SO3)3] > [HSO4] > [Lactate] > [OAc], which is mainly dependent on the viscosity of the ionic liquid.

On the routines of wild-type silk fibroin processing toward silk-inspired materials: a review

For years, silk fibroin of a domestic silkworm, Bombyx mori, has been recognized as a valuable material and extensively used. In the last decades, new application fields are emerging for this versatile material. Those final, specific applications of silk dictate the way it has been processed in industry and research. This review focuses on the description of various approaches for silk downstream processing in a laboratory scale, that fall within several categories. The detailed description of workflow possibilities from the naturally found material to a finally formulated product is presented. Considerable attention is given to (bio-) chemical approaches of silk fibroin transformation, particularly, to its enzyme-driven modifications. The focus of the current literature survey is exclusively on the methods applied in research and not industry.

Aspergilli and Penicillia related to the surface of ripening italian grana type cheese and its ripening environment

Information available on the mycoflora associated to ripening Italian “grana type” cheese is very poor. Recently, ochratoxin A (OTA) was detected in samples of packed grated cheese [1]; therefore, the need of information to perform a risk management was highlighted. Moreover, sterigmatocystin (STC) has been reported in cheese and it is considered an emerging problem. Despite the fact that both of them are mycotoxins included in group 2B by IARC [2,3], no European regulation exists. So, the main goal of this work is to give for the first time a general overview about Penicillia and Aspergilli growing on the surface of ripening “grana type” cheese, with particular attention on mycotoxigenic species. To perform this, in 2013 and 2014 crust samples were scratched from ripening grana cheese wheels and also Potato Dextrose Agar plates were exposed to monitor ripening house air. Then, 140 fungal isolates were randomly chosen, purified and monosporic colonies were obtained for their identification at specie level. A polyphasic approach is followed, based on morphological characterisation, toxic extrolites profiling and gene sequencing. The identification is still in progress, but the first results based on the morphological approach showed the presence of mycotoxigenic Aspergilli (Aspergillus flavus and A. versicolor) and various Penicillium species; among them Penicillium chrysogenum, P. implicatum and P. solitum were identified. Only P. chrysogenum was reported to produce the mycotoxins cyclopiazonic acid (CPA) and roquefortine-C (ROQ-C) [4]. These results will be presented and discussed. [1] A. Biancardi, R. Piro, G. Galaverna, C. Dall’Asta, "A simple and reliable liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry method for determination of ochratoxin A in hard cheese" International Journal of Food Sciences and Nutrition 64 (5), 2013, 632 – 640. [2] International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) “IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of Carcinogenic Risks to Humans” 31, 1983, 191 – 199. [3] International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) “IARC Monographs on the Evaluation of carcinogenic Risks to Humans”, suppl. 7, 1987, 72. [4] J. I. Pitt, D. A. Hocking, “Fungi and Food Spoilage” 1997, 291.

Search for type-III Seesaw heavy leptons in pp collisions at s√=8 TeV with the ATLAS Detector

A search for the pair-production of heavy leptons (N0,L±) predicted by the type-III seesaw theory formulated to explain the origin of small neutrino masses is presented. The decay channels N0→W±l∓ (ℓ=e,μ,τ) and L±→W±ν (ν=νe,νμ,ντ) are considered. The analysis is performed using the final state that contains two leptons (electrons or muons), two jets from a hadronically decaying W boson, and large missing transverse momentum. The data used in the measurement correspond to an integrated luminosity of 20.3fb−1 of pp collisions at s√=8 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the LHC. No evidence of heavy lepton pair-production is observed. Heavy leptons with masses below 325--540 GeV are excluded at the 95% confidence level, depending on the theoretical scenario considered.

Spousal support and satisfaction with healthcare services as moderators between psychological morbidity and adherence to diet in Type 2 Diabetes patients

Objectives: This study analyzed the moderating role of partners’ support and satisfaction with healthcare services in the relationship between psychological morbidity and adherence to diet in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Methods: Participants were 387 recently diagnosed T2DM patients that answered the following instruments: Revised Summary of Diabetes Self- Care Activities Measure, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scales, Multidimensional Diabetes Questionnaire and Patient Satisfaction Questionnaire. Results: Partners’ positive and negative support moderated the relationship between psychological morbidity and adherence to diet. Satisfaction with healthcare services also moderated the relationship between psychological morbidity and adherence to diet. Conclusions: Intervention programs to promote adherence to diet in patients with type 2 diabetes should focus on partners’ support and patient satisfaction with healthcare services.

The choroid plexus transcriptome reveals changes in type I and II interferon responses in a mouse model of Alzheimer's disease

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by a marked decline in cognition and memory function. Increasing evidence highlights the essential role of neuroinflammatory and immune-related molecules, including those produced at the brain barriers, on brain immune surveillance, cellular dysfunction and amyloid beta (Aß) pathology in AD. Therefore, understanding the response at the brain barriers may unravel novel pathways of relevance for the pathophysiology of AD. Herein, we focused on the study of the choroid plexus (CP), which constitutes the blood-cerebrospinal fluid barrier, in aging and in AD. Specifically, we used the PDGFB-APPSwInd (J20) transgenic mouse model of AD, which presents early memory decline and progressive Aß accumulation, and littermate age-matched wild-type (WT) mice, to characterize the CP transcriptome at 3, 5-6 and 11-12months of age. The most striking observation was that the CP of J20 mice displayed an overall overexpression of type I interferon (IFN) response genes at all ages. Moreover, J20 mice presented a high expression of type II IFN genes in the CP at 3months, which became lower than WT at 5-6 and 11-12months. Importantly, along with a marked memory impairment and increased glial activation, J20 mice also presented a similar overexpression of type I IFN genes in the dorsal hippocampus at 3months. Altogether, these findings provide new insights on a possible interplay between type I and II IFN responses in AD and point to IFNs as targets for modulation in cognitive decline.

Specification and testing of multiplicative time-varying GARCH models with applications

In this article, we develop a specification technique for building multiplicative time-varying GARCH models of Amado and Teräsvirta (2008, 2013). The variance is decomposed into an unconditional and a conditional component such that the unconditional variance component is allowed to evolve smoothly over time. This nonstationary component is defined as a linear combination of logistic transition functions with time as the transition variable. The appropriate number of transition functions is determined by a sequence of specification tests. For that purpose, a coherent modelling strategy based on statistical inference is presented. It is heavily dependent on Lagrange multiplier type misspecification tests. The tests are easily implemented as they are entirely based on auxiliary regressions. Finite-sample properties of the strategy and tests are examined by simulation. The modelling strategy is illustrated in practice with two real examples: an empirical application to daily exchange rate returns and another one to daily coffee futures returns.

Hind limb ischemia in type 1 diabetic mice as useful tool to evaluate the neovascularization of tissue engineering constructs

Hind-limb ischemia has been used in type 1 diabetic mice to evaluate treatments for peripheral arterial disease or mechanisms of vascular impairment in diabetes [1]. Vascular deficiency is not only a pathophysiological condition, but also an obvious circumstance in tissue regeneration and in tissue engineering and regenerative medicine (TERM) strategies. We performed a pilot experiment of hind-limb ischemia in streptozotocin(STZ)-induced type 1 diabetic mice to hypothesise whether diabetes influences neovascularization induced by biomaterials. The dependent variables included blood flow and markers of arteriogenesis and angiogenesis. Type 1 diabetes was induced in 8-week-old C57BL/6 mice by an i.p. injection of STZ (50 mg/kg daily for 5 days). Hind-limb ischemia was created under deep anaesthesia and the left femoral artery and vein were isolated, ligated, and excised. The contralateral hind limb served as an internal control within each mouse. Non-diabetic ischaemic mice were used as experiment controls. At the hind-limb ischemia surgical procedure, different types of biomaterials were placed in the blood vessels gap. Blood flow was estimated by Laser Doppler perfusion imager, right after surgery and then weekly. After 28 days of implantation, surrounding muscle was excised and evaluated by histological analysis for arteriogenesis and angiogenesis. The results showed that implanted biomaterials were promote faster restoration of blood flow in the ischemic limbs and improved neovascularization in the diabetic mice. Therefore, we herein demonstrate that the combined model of hind-limb ischemia in type 1 diabetes mice is suitable to evaluate the neovascularization potential of biomaterials and eventually tissue engineering constructs.  

Synthesis, antiangiogenesis evaluation and molecular docking studies of 1-Aryl-3-[(thieno[3,2-b]pyridin-7-ylthio)phenyl]ureas: Discovery of a new substitution pattern for type II VEGFR-2 Tyr kinase inhibitors

The synthesis and biological evaluation of novel 1-aryl-3-[2-, 3- or 4-(thieno[3,2-b]pyridin-7-ylthio)phenyl]ureas 3, 4 and 5 as VEGFR-2 tyrosine kinase inhibitors, are reported. The 1-aryl-3-[3-(thieno[3,2-b]pyridin-7-ylthio)phenyl]ureas 4a-4h, with the arylurea in the meta position to the thioether, showed the lowest IC50 values in enzymatic assays (10-206 nM), the most potent compounds 4d-4h (IC50 10-28 nM) bearing hydrophobic groups (Me, F, CF3 and Cl) in the terminal phenyl ring. A convincing rationalization was achieved for the highest potent compounds 4 as type II VEGFR-2 inhibitors, based on the simultaneous presence of: (1) the thioether linker and (2) the arylurea moiety in the meta position. For compounds 4, significant inhibition of Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial Cells (HUVECs) proliferation (BrdU assay), migration (wound-healing assay) and tube formation were observed at low concentrations. These compounds have also shown to increase apoptosis using the TUNEL assay. Immunostaining for total and phosphorylated (active) VEGFR-2 was performed by Western blotting. The phosphorylation of the receptor was significantly inhibited at 1.0 and 2.5 microM for the most promising compounds. Altogether, these findings point to an antiangiogenic effect in HUVECs.

High-level of viral genomic diversity in cervical cancers: a Brazilian study on human papillomavirus type 16

Invasive cervical cancer (ICC) is the third most frequent cancer among women worldwide and is associated with persistent infection by carcinogenic human papillomaviruses (HPVs). The combination of large populations of viral progeny and decades of sustained infection may allow for the generation of intra-patient diversity, in spite of the assumedly low mutation rates of PVs. While the natural history of chronic HPVs infections has been comprehensively described, within-host viral diversity remains largely unexplored. In this study we have applied next generation sequencing to the analysis of intra-host genetic diversity in ten ICC and one condyloma cases associated to single HPV16 infection. We retrieved from all cases near full-length genomic sequences. All samples analyzed contained polymorphic sites, ranging from 3 to 125 polymorphic positions per genome, and the median probability of a viral genome picked at random to be identical to the consensus sequence in the lesion was only 40%. We have also identified two independent putative duplication events in two samples, spanning the L2 and the L1 gene, respectively. Finally, we have identified with good support a chimera of human and viral DNA. We propose that viral diversity generated during HPVs chronic infection may be fueled by innate and adaptive immune pressures. Further research will be needed to understand the dynamics of viral DNA variability, differentially in benign and malignant lesions, as well as in tissues with differential intensity of immune surveillance. Finally, the impact of intralesion viral diversity on the long-term oncogenic potential may deserve closer attention.