The importance of risk assessment in the context of investment project management: a case study

Risk management is an important component of project management. Nevertheless, such process begins with risk assessment and evaluation. In this research project, a detailed analysis of the methodologies used to treat risks in investment projects adopted by the Banco da Amazonia S.A. was made. Investment projects submitted to the FNO (Constitutional Fund for Financing the North) during 2011 and 2012 were considered for that purpose. It was found that the evaluators of this credit institution use multiple indicators for risk assessment which assume a central role in terms of decision-making and contribute for the approval or the rejection of the submitted projects; namely, the proven ability to pay, the financial records of project promotors, several financial restrictions, level of equity, level of financial indebtedness, evidence of the existence of a consumer market, the proven experience of the partners/owners in the business, environmental aspects, etc. Furthermore, the bank has technological systems to support the risk assessment process, an internal communication system and a unique system for the management of operational risk.

Project management under uncertainty: a study on solution methods

Project Management involves onetime endeavors that demand for getting it right the first time. On the other hand, project scheduling, being one of the most modeled project management process stages, still faces a wide gap from theory to practice. Demanding computational models and their consequent call for simplification, divert the implementation of such models in project management tools from the actual day to day project management process. Special focus is being made to the robustness of the generated project schedules facing the omnipresence of uncertainty. An "easy" way out is to add, more or less cleverly calculated, time buffers that always result in project duration increase and correspondingly, in cost. A better approach to deal with uncertainty seems to be to explore slack that might be present in a given project schedule, a fortiori when a non-optimal schedule is used. The combination of such approach to recent advances in modeling resource allocation and scheduling techniques to cope with the increasing flexibility in resources, as can be expressed in "Flexible Resource Constraint Project Scheduling Problem" (FRCPSP) formulations, should be a promising line of research to generate more adequate project management tools. In reality, this approach has been frequently used, by project managers in an ad-hoc way.

Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

A data-driven analytics approach in the study of pneumonia’s fatalities

As huge amounts of data become available in organizations and society, specific data analytics skills and techniques are needed to explore this data and extract from it useful patterns, tendencies, models or other useful knowledge, which could be used to support the decision-making process, to define new strategies or to understand what is happening in a specific field. Only with a deep understanding of a phenomenon it is possible to fight it. In this paper, a data-driven analytics approach is used for the analysis of the increasing incidence of fatalities by pneumonia in the Portuguese population, characterizing the disease and its incidence in terms of fatalities, knowledge that can be used to define appropriate strategies that can aim to reduce this phenomenon, which has increased more than 65% in a decade.

A case study on the conversion of an internal combustion engine vehicle into an electric vehicle

This paper presents the conversion process of a traditional Internal Combustion Engine vehicle into an Electric Vehicle. The main constitutive elements of the Electric Vehicle are presented. The developed powertrain uses a three-phase inverter with Field Oriented Control and space vector modulation. The developed on-board batteries charging system can operate in Grid-to-Vehicle and Vehicle-to-Grid modes. The implemented prototypes were tested, and experimental results are presented. The assembly of these prototypes in the vehicle was made in accordance with the Portuguese legislation about vehicles conversion, and the main adopted solutions are presented.

A bayesian approach for NDT data fusion: The Saint Torcato Church case study

This paper presents a methodology based on the Bayesian data fusion techniques applied to non-destructive and destructive tests for the structural assessment of historical constructions. The aim of the methodology is to reduce the uncertainties of the parameter estimation. The Young's modulus of granite stones was chosen as an example for the present paper. The methodology considers several levels of uncertainty since the parameters of interest are considered random variables with random moments. A new concept of Trust Factor was introduced to affect the uncertainty related to each test results, translated by their standard deviation, depending on the higher or lower reliability of each test to predict a certain parameter.

Flexural strengthening of RC beams using hybrid composite plate (HCP): experimental and analytical study

Hybrid Composite Plate (HCP) is a reliable recently proposed retrofitting solution for concrete structures, which is composed of a strain hardening cementitious composite (SHCC) plate reinforced with Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymer (CFRP). This system benefits from the synergetic advantages of these two composites, namely the high ductility of SHCC and the high tensile strength of CFRPs. In the materialstructural of HCP, the ultra-ductile SHCC plate acts as a suitable medium for stress transfer between CFRP laminates (bonded into the pre-sawn grooves executed on the SHCC plate) and the concrete substrate by means of a connection system made by either chemical anchors, adhesive, or a combination thereof. In comparison with traditional applications of FRP systems, HCP is a retrofitting solution that (i) is less susceptible to the detrimental effect of the lack of strength and soundness of the concrete cover in the strengthening effectiveness; (ii) assures higher durability for the strengthened elements and higher protection to the FRP component in terms of high temperatures and vandalism; and (iii) delays, or even, prevents detachment of concrete substrate. This paper describes the experimental program carried out, and presents and discusses the relevant results obtained on the assessment of the performance of HCP strengthened reinforced concrete (RC) beams subjected to flexural loading. Moreover, an analytical approach to estimate the ultimate flexural capacity of these beams is presented, which was complemented with a numerical strategy for predicting their load-deflection behaviour. By attaching HCP to the beams’ soffit, a significant increase in the flexural capacity at service, at yield initiation of the tension steel bars and at failure of the beams can be achieved, while satisfactory deflection ductility is assured and a high tensile capacity of the CFRP laminates is mobilized. Both analytical and numerical approaches have predicted with satisfactory agreement, the load-deflection response of the reference beam and the strengthened ones tested experimentally.

Project management: evaluation of the problems in the portuguese construction industry

During recent decades it has been possible to identify several problems in construction industry project management, related with to systematic failures in terms of fulfilling its schedule, cost and quality targets, which highlight a need for an evaluation of the factors that may cause these failures. Therefore, it is important to understand how project managers plan the projects, so that the performance and the results can be improved. However, it is important to understand if other areas beyond cost and time management that are mentioned on several studies as the most critical areas, receive the necessary attention from construction project managers. Despite the cost and time are the most sensitive areas/fields, there are several other factors that may lead to project failure. This study aims at understand the reasons that may cause the deviation in terms of cost, time and quality, from the project management point of view, looking at the knowledge areas mentioned by PMI (Project Management Institute).

Study of the interaction between asphalt and plastic wastes in new polymer modified binders (PMB)

The aim of this study is evaluating the interaction between several base pen grade asphalt binders (35/50, 50/70, 70/100, 160/220) and two different plastic wastes (EVA and HDPE), for a set of new polymer modified binders produced with different amounts of both plastic wastes. After analysing the results obtained for the several polymer modified binders evaluated in this study, including a commercial modified binder, it can be concluded that the new PMBs produced with the base bitumen 70/100 and 5% of each plastic waste (HDPE or EVA) results in binders with very good performance, similar to that of the commercial modified binder.

Sustainability education in PBL education: the case study of IEM-UMINHO

Sustainability-related skills are becoming more and more relevant for a proficient and professional engineering practice. Industrial engineers in particular, given their broad field of intervention and being at the heart of industrial activity, hold a great deal of potential and responsibility in providing and delivering best industrial practices, that support enhanced industrial systems and products. Therefore making a real contribution in generating wealth and income for all the companies’ stakeholders, including local communities, as well as adding up to more sustainable ecosystems. Previous work by the authors focused on studying the inclusion of this subject on the education of industrial engineers, especially through active-learning methodologies, as well as presenting results on the use of one such approach. The study conducted tried to identify the impacts on sustainability learning using a given specific activity, i.e. a workshop on industrial ecology, held in the 2014/2015 academic year on the Integrated MSc degree on Industrial Engineering and Management at the University of Minho, Portugal. The study uses content analysis of student teams’ reports for two consecutive academic years. The former did not include one such workshop, while the latter did. The Fink taxonomy was used in the discussion of results and reflection. The study outcomes aimed at supporting decision making on worthiness of investment on similar education instruments for sustainability competency development. Some results of the study highlight that: (1) the workshop seem to globally have a positive contribution on the sustainability learning; (2) a number of dimensions of the Life cycle design strategy wheel was developed, but the approach was not broadly used, (3) There was a mismatch on the workshop schedule; (4) students enjoy the workshop; (5) a clearer endorsement on relevance of this aspect is required. Suggestions for future work are also issued.

Implementation of a lean six sigma project in a production line

Companies from the motorcycles components branch are dealing with a dynamic environment, resulting from the introduction of new products and the increase of market demand. This dynamic environment requires frequent changes in production lines and requires flexibility in the processes, which can cause reductions in the level of quality and productivity. This paper presents a Lean Six Sigma improvement project performed in a production line of the company's machining sector, in order to eliminate losses that cause low productivity, affecting the fulfillment of the production plan and customer satisfaction. The use of Lean methodology following the DMAIC stages allowed analyzing the factors that influence the line productivity loss. The major problems and causes that contribute to a reduction on productivity and that were identified in this study are the lack of standardization in the setup activities and the excessive stoppages for adjustment of the processes that caused an increase of defects. Control charts, Pareto analysis and cause-and-effect diagrams were used to analyze the problem. On the improvement stage, the changes were based on the reconfiguration of the line layout as well as the modernization of the process. Overall, the project justified an investment in new equipment, the defective product units were reduced by 84% and an increase of 29% of line capacity was noticed.

Analytical and numerical study of the electro-osmotic annular flow of viscoelastic fluids

In this work we present semi-analytical solutions for the electro-osmotic annular flow of viscoelastic fluids modeled by the Linear and Exponential PTT models. The viscoelastic fluid flows in the axial direction between two concentric cylinders under the combined influences of electrokinetic and pressure forcings. The analysis invokes the Debye-Hückel approximation and includes the limit case of pure electro-osmotic flow. The solution is valid for both no slip and slip velocity at the walls and the chosen slip boundary condition is the linear Navier slip velocity model. The combined effects of fluid rheology, electro-osmotic and pressure gradient forcings on the fluid velocity distribution are also discussed.

Step towards of a homemade business intelligence solution: A case study in textile industry

Nowadays, organizations are increasingly looking to invest in business intelligence solutions, mainly private companies in order to get advantage over its competitors, however they do not know what is necessary. Business intelligence allows an analysis of consolidated information in order to obtain more specific outlets and certain indications in order to support the decision making process. You can take the right decision based on the data collected from different information systems present in the organization and outside of them. The textile sector is a sector where concept of Business Intelligence it is not many explored yet. Actually there are few textile companies that have a BI platform. Thus, the article objective is present an architecture and show all the steps by which companies need to spend to implement a successful free homemade Business Intelligence system. As result the proposed approach it was validated using real data aiming assess the steps defined.

Pervasive business intelligence platform to improve the quality of decision process in primary and secondary education – A Portuguese case study

Business Intelligence (BI) can be seen as a method that gathers information and data from information systems in order to help companies to be more accurate in their decision-making process. Traditionally BI systems were associated with the use of Data Warehouses (DW). The prime purpose of DW is to serve as a repository that stores all the relevant information required for making the correct decision. The necessity to integrate streaming data became crucial with the need to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the decision process. In primary and secondary education, there is a lack of BI solutions. Due to the schools reality the main purpose of this study is to provide a Pervasive BI solution able to monitoring the schools and student data anywhere and anytime in real-time as well as disseminating the information through ubiquitous devices. The first task consisted in gathering data regarding the different choices made by the student since his enrolment in a certain school year until the end of it. Thereafter a dimensional model was developed in order to be possible building a BI platform. This paper presents the dimensional model, a set of pre-defined indicators, the Pervasive Business Intelligence characteristics and the prototype designed. The main contribution of this study was to offer to the schools a tool that could help them to make accurate decisions in real-time. Data dissemination was achieved through a localized application that can be accessed anywhere and anytime.

A cost study of common surface finish systems for steel structures

This paper presents part of a study aimed at finding a suitable, yet cost-effective, surface finish for a steel structure subject to the car washing environment and corrosive chemicals. The initial, life cycle and average equivalent annual (AEAC) costs for surface finishing methods were calculated for a steel structure using the LCCC algorithm developed by American Galvanizers Association (AGA). The cost study consisted of 45 common surface finish systems including: hot-dip galvanization (HDG), metallization, acrylic, alkyd and epoxy as well as duplex coatings such as epoxy zinc and inorganic zinc (IOZ). The results show that initial, life cycle and AEAC costs for hot dip galvanization are the lowest among all the other methods, followed by coal tar epoxy painting. The annual average cost of HDG for this structure was estimated about €0.22/m2, while the other cost-effective alternatives were: IOZ, polyurea, epoxy waterborne and IOZ/epoxy duplex coating.