Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Interdisciplinary knowledge transfer and technological applications for assessment, strengthening and monitoring of timber structures in Europe

COST (European Co-operation in the field of scientific and technical research) is the longest running framework for research co-operation iri Europe, having been established in 1971 by a Ministerial Conference attended by Ministers for Science and Technology from 19 countries. Today COST is used by the scientific communities of 35 European countries to cooperate in exchanging knowledge and technology developed within research projects supported by national or European funds. The main objective of COST is to contribute to the realization of the European Research Área (ERA) anticipating and complementing the activities of the' Framework Programmes, constituting a "bridge" towards the scientific communities of emerging countries, increasing the mobility of researchers across Europe and fostering the establishment of "Networks of Excelience". Another essential objective is the knowledge transfer between the scientific soc'iety and industry. It is widely acknowledged that European scientific performance in relation to investment in science is excellent but technological and commercial performance has steadily worsened. The present paper discusses how the COST Action's instruments, from training schools to short scientific missions and workshops have been used within The COST ACTION FP11O1 Assessment, Reinforcement and Monitoring of Timber Structures to achieve such objectives.

Transfer zone of prestressed CFRP reinforcement applied according to NSM technique for strengthening of RC structures

This study presents an experimental program to assess the tensile strain distribution along prestressed carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) reinforcement flexurally applied on the tensile surface of RC beams according to near surface mounted (NSM) technique. Moreover, the current study aims to propose an analytical formulation, with a design framework, for the prediction of distribution of CFRP tensile strain and bond shear stress and, additionally, the prestress transfer length. After demonstration the good predictive performance of the proposed analytical approach, parametric studies were carried out to analytically evaluate the influence of the main material properties, and CFRP and groove cross section on the distribution of the CFRP tensile strain and bond shear stress, and on the prestress transfer length. The proposed analytical approach can also predict the evolution of the prestress transfer length during the curing time of the adhesive by considering the variation of its elasticity modulus during this period.

A study on the performance of technology transfer units

Universities are increasingly institutionalizing activities related to technology transfer and one of the main institutional mechanisms that has emerged is the “technology transfer unit” (TTU). Many of them are focusing their activities on the management of the university intellectual property. Studies have investigated factors that seem to affect their performance, but few have looked in detail at internal procedures and techniques that are used in their processes related to technology evaluation and licensing. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive overview of some of the several steps that comprises the processes regarding technology evaluation and licensing, providing an analysis of the critical issues that affect each step of the process. A review of the literature was made, complemented with interviews to seven university TTUs, which was used as a check and a complement to the literature review and as way of perceiving from an insider perspective, the problems and issues that this paper wants to emphasize and to state clearly.

Task clustering on ETL systems – A pattern-oriented approach

Usually, data warehousing populating processes are data-oriented workflows composed by dozens of granular tasks that are responsible for the integration of data coming from different data sources. Specific subset of these tasks can be grouped on a collection together with their relationships in order to form higher- level constructs. Increasing task granularity allows for the generalization of processes, simplifying their views and providing methods to carry out expertise to new applications. Well-proven practices can be used to describe general solutions that use basic skeletons configured and instantiated according to a set of specific integration requirements. Patterns can be applied to ETL processes aiming to simplify not only a possible conceptual representation but also to reduce the gap that often exists between two design perspectives. In this paper, we demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of an ETL pattern-based approach using task clustering, analyzing a real world ETL scenario through the definitions of two commonly used clusters of tasks: a data lookup cluster and a data conciliation and integration cluster.

Thermal conditions affecting heat transfer in FDM/FFE: a contribution towards the numerical modelling of the process

The performance of parts produced by Free Form Extrusion (FFE), an increasingly popular additive manufacturing technique, depends mainly on their dimensional accuracy, surface quality and mechanical performance. These attributes are strongly influenced by the evolution of the filament temperature and deformation during deposition and solidification. Consequently, the availability of adequate process modelling software would offer a powerful tool to support efficient process set-up and optimisation. This work examines the contribution to the overall heat transfer of various thermal phenomena developing during the manufacturing sequence, including convection and radiation with the environment, conduction with support and between adjacent filaments, radiation between adjacent filaments and convection with entrapped air. The magnitude of the mechanical deformation is also studied. Once this exercise is completed, it is possible to select the material properties, process variables and thermal phenomena that should be taken in for effective numerical modelling of FFE.

Performance assessment of electrically small antennas for implantable microsystems with wireless power and communications

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Biomédica (área de especialização em Eletrónica Médica)

Synthesis, antiangiogenesis evaluation and molecular docking studies of 1-Aryl-3-[(thieno[3,2-b]pyridin-7-ylthio)phenyl]ureas: Discovery of a new substitution pattern for type II VEGFR-2 Tyr kinase inhibitors

The synthesis and biological evaluation of novel 1-aryl-3-[2-, 3- or 4-(thieno[3,2-b]pyridin-7-ylthio)phenyl]ureas 3, 4 and 5 as VEGFR-2 tyrosine kinase inhibitors, are reported. The 1-aryl-3-[3-(thieno[3,2-b]pyridin-7-ylthio)phenyl]ureas 4a-4h, with the arylurea in the meta position to the thioether, showed the lowest IC50 values in enzymatic assays (10-206 nM), the most potent compounds 4d-4h (IC50 10-28 nM) bearing hydrophobic groups (Me, F, CF3 and Cl) in the terminal phenyl ring. A convincing rationalization was achieved for the highest potent compounds 4 as type II VEGFR-2 inhibitors, based on the simultaneous presence of: (1) the thioether linker and (2) the arylurea moiety in the meta position. For compounds 4, significant inhibition of Human Umbilical Vein Endothelial Cells (HUVECs) proliferation (BrdU assay), migration (wound-healing assay) and tube formation were observed at low concentrations. These compounds have also shown to increase apoptosis using the TUNEL assay. Immunostaining for total and phosphorylated (active) VEGFR-2 was performed by Western blotting. The phosphorylation of the receptor was significantly inhibited at 1.0 and 2.5 microM for the most promising compounds. Altogether, these findings point to an antiangiogenic effect in HUVECs.

Oxygen mass transfer impact on citric acid production by Yarrowia lipolytica from crude glycerol

Production of citric acid from crude glycerol from biodiesel industry, in batch cultures of Yarrowia lipolytica W29 was performed in a lab-scale stirred tank bioreactor in order to assess the effect of oxygen mass transfer rate in this bioprocess. An empirical correlation was proposed to describe oxygen volumetric mass transfer coefficient (kLa) as a function of operating conditions (stirring speed and specific air flow rate) and cellular density. kLa increased according with a power function with specific power input and superficial gas velocity, and slightly decreased with cellular density. The increase of initial kLa from 7 h-1 to 55 h-1 led to 7.8-fold increase of citric acid final concentration. Experiments were also performed at controlled dissolved oxygen (DO) and citric acid concentration increased with DO up to 60% of saturation. Thus, due to the simpler operation setting an optimal kLa than at controlled DO, it can be concluded that kLa is an adequate parameter for the optimization of citric acid production from crude glycerol by Y. lipolytica and to be considered in bioprocess scale-up. Our empirical correlation, considering the operating conditions and cellular density, will be a valid tool for this purpose.