Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Produtos têxteis inteligentes incorporando filamentos compósitos com nanotubos de carbono

Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Têxtil.

Medir o impacto nas ciências sociais: pontos de referência teóricos

Os modos de fazer pesquisa científica têm vindo a alterar-se, em função das mudanças pelas quais passa o Ensino Superior, assim como os sistemas de ciência e tecnologia, no seu todo. Na Europa vivem-se tempos de grandes questionamentos acerca do modo de proceder relativamente à definição de metodologias de avaliação e/ou financiamento público à investigação individual e/ou coletiva. A tendência geral, neste contexto, é para aperfeiçoar as metodologias de avaliação, através da definição de indicadores que permitam medir as várias dimensões do trabalho científico. No campo específico da avaliação, prevê-se cada vez mais a avaliação do impacto das pesquisas. Ocorre que, apesar do número e da amplitude dos indicadores que vão sendo propostos, a definição de impacto resulta numa tarefa difícil. Não só porque a realidade medida nem toda é perfeitamente traduzível em algo tangível, mas também porque existem diferenças significativas nos modos como as diferentes áreas produzem conhecimento. Neste artigo, pretende-se refletir sobre esse conceito de impacto, nomeadamente ao nível das ciências sociais, evidenciando aquelas que são as principais conclusões e reflexões de estudos e escritos mais recentes.

Novel anisotropic magnetoelectric effect on δ-FeO(OH)/P(VDF-TrFE) multiferroic composites

The last decade has witnessed an increased research effort on multi-phase magnetoelectric (ME) composites. In this scope, this paper presents the application of novel materials for the development of anisotropic magnetoelectric (ME) sensors based on δ-FeO(OH)/P(VDF-TrFE) composites. The composite is able to precisely determine the amplitude and direction of the magnetic field. A new ME effect is reported in this study, as it emerges from the magnetic rotation of the δ-FeO(OH) nanosheets inside the piezoelectric P(VDF-TrFE) polymer matrix. δ-FeO(OH)/P(VDF-TrFE) composites with 1, 5, 10 and 20 δ-FeO(OH) filler weigh percentage in three δ-FeO(OH) alignment states (random, transversal and longitudinal) have been developed. Results shown that the modulus of the piezoelectric response (10-24 pC.N-1) is stable at least up to three months, the shape and magnetization maximum value (3 emu.g-1) is dependent on δ-FeO(OH) content and the obtained ME voltage coefficient, with a maximum of ≈0.4 mV.cm-1.Oe-1, is dependent on the incident magnetic field direction and intensity. In this way, the produced materials are suitable for innovative anisotropic sensor and actuator applications.

Design and validation of a biomechanical bioreactor for cartilage tissue culture

Specific tissues, such as cartilage undergo mechanical solicitation under their normal performance in human body. In this sense, it seems necessary that proper tissue engineering strategies of these tissues should incorporate mechanical solicitations during cell culture, in order to properly evaluate the influence of the mechanical stimulus. This work reports on a user-friendly bioreactor suitable for applying controlled mechanical stimulation - amplitude and frequency - to three dimensional scaffolds. Its design and main components are described, as well as its operation characteristics. The modular design allows easy cleaning and operating under laminar hood. Different protocols for the sterilization of the hermetic enclosure are tested and ensure lack of observable contaminations, complying with the requirements to be used for cell culture. The cell viability study was performed with KUM5 cells.

Effect of the acoustic impedance in ultrasonic emitter transducers using digital modulations

In an underwater environment it is difficult to implement solutions for wireless communications. The existing technologies using electromagnetic waves or lasers are not very efficient due to the large attenuation in the aquatic environment. Ultrasound reveals a lower attenuation, and thus has been used in underwater long-distance communications. The much slower speed of acoustic propagation in water (about 1500 m/s) compared with that of electromagnetic and optical waves, is another limiting factor for efficient communication and networking. For high data-rates and real-time applications it is necessary to use frequencies in the MHz range, allowing communication distances of hundreds of meters with a delay of milliseconds. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to develop ultrasound transducers able to work at high frequencies and wideband, with suitable responses to digital modulations. This work shows how the acoustic impedance influences the performance of an ultrasonic emitter transducer when digital modulations are used and operating at frequencies between 100 kHz and 1 MHz. The study includes a Finite Element Method (FEM) and a MATLAB/Simulink simulation with an experimental validation to evaluate two types of piezoelectric materials: one based on ceramics (high acoustic impedance) with a resonance design and the other based in polymer (low acoustic impedance) designed to optimize the performance when digital modulations are used. The transducers performance for Binary Amplitude Shift Keying (BASK), On-Off Keying (OOK), Binary Phase Shift Keying (BPSK) and Binary Frequency Shift Keying (BFSK) modulations with a 1 MHz carrier at 125 kbps baud rate are compared.

Electrically tunable resonant scattering in fluorinated bilayer graphene

Adatom-decorated graphene offers a promising new path towards spintronics in the ultrathin limit. We combine experiment and theory to investigate the electronic properties of dilutely fluorinated bilayer graphene, where the fluorine adatoms covalently bond to the top graphene layer. We show that fluorine adatoms give rise to resonant impurity states near the charge neutrality point of the bilayer, leading to strong scattering of charge carriers and hopping conduction inside a field-induced band gap. Remarkably, the application of an electric field across the layers is shown to tune the resonant scattering amplitude from fluorine adatoms by nearly twofold. The experimental observations are well explained by a theoretical analysis combining Boltzmann transport equations and fully quantum-mechanical methods. This paradigm can be generalized to many bilayer graphene-adatom materials, and we envision that the realization of electrically tunable resonance may be a key advantage in graphene-based spintronic devices.

Forecasting time series combining Holt-Winters and bootstrap approaches

Publicado em "AIP Conference Proceedings", Vol. 1648

A VEP study in sleeping and awake one-month-old infants and its relation with social behavior

With the present study we aimed to analyze the relationship between infants' behavior and their visual evoked-potential (VEPs) response. Specifically, we want to verify differences regarding the VEP response in sleeping and awake infants and if an association between VEP components, in both groups, with neurobehavioral outcome could be identified. To do so, thirty-two full-term and healthy infants, approximately 1-month of age, were assessed through a VEP unpatterned flashlight stimuli paradigm, offered in two different intensities, and were assessed using a neurobehavioral scale. However, only 18 infants have both assessments, and therefore, these is the total included in both analysis. Infants displayed a mature neurobehavioral outcome, expected for their age. We observed that P2 and N3 components were present in both sleeping and awake infants. Differences between intensities were found regarding the P2 amplitude, but only in awake infants. Regression analysis showed that N3 amplitude predicted an adequate social interactive and internal regulatory behavior in infants who were awake during the stimuli presentation. Taking into account that social orientation and regulatory behaviors are fundamental keys for social-like behavior in 1-month-old infants, this study provides an important approach for assessing physiological biomarkers (VEPs) and its relation with social behavior, very early in postnatal development. Moreover, we evidence the importance of the infant's state when studying differences regarding visual threshold processing and its association with behavioral outcome.

The music of language: an ERP investigation of the effects of musical training on emotional prosody processing

Recent studies have demonstrated the positive effects of musical training on the perception of vocally expressed emotion. This study investigated the effects of musical training on event-related potential (ERP) correlates of emotional prosody processing. Fourteen musicians and fourteen control subjects listened to 228 sentences with neutral semantic content, differing in prosody (one third with neutral, one third with happy and one third with angry intonation), with intelligible semantic content (semantic content condition--SCC) and unintelligible semantic content (pure prosody condition--PPC). Reduced P50 amplitude was found in musicians. A difference between SCC and PPC conditions was found in P50 and N100 amplitude in non-musicians only, and in P200 amplitude in musicians only. Furthermore, musicians were more accurate in recognizing angry prosody in PPC sentences. These findings suggest that auditory expertise characterizing extensive musical training may impact different stages of vocal emotional processing.

Sistema de aquisição e comunicação para sensores magnetoelétricos

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Eletrónica Industrial e Computadores

Characterization of the oculomotor alterations in inicial phase of Multiple Sclerosis

Dissertação de mestrado em Advanced Optometry

Atividade fotossintética do bago de uva (Vitis vinifera, cv. Alvarinho) ao longo do desenvolvimento dos cachos em diferentes microambientes de luz

Dissertação de mestrado em Biologia Molecular, Biotecnologia e Bioempreendedorismo em Plantas

Extensive admixture and selective pressure across the Sahel Belt

Genome-wide studies of African populations have the potential to reveal powerful insights into the evolution of our species, as these diverse populations have been exposed to intense selective pressures imposed by infectious diseases, diet, and environmental factors. Within Africa, the Sahel Belt extensively overlaps the geographical center of several endemic infections such as malaria, trypanosomiasis, meningitis, and hemorrhagic fevers. We screened 2.5 million single nucleotide polymorphisms in 161 individuals from 13 Sahelian populations, which together with published data cover Western, Central, and Eastern Sahel, and include both nomadic and sedentary groups. We confirmed the role of this Belt as a main corridor for human migrations across the continent. Strong admixture was observed in both Central and Eastern Sahelian populations, with North Africans and Near Eastern/Arabians, respectively, but it was inexistent in Western Sahelian populations. Genome-wide local ancestry inference in admixed Sahelian populations revealed several candidate regions that were significantly enriched for non-autochthonous haplotypes, and many showed to be under positive selection. The DARC gene region in Arabs and Nubians was enriched for African ancestry, whereas the RAB3GAP1/LCT/MCM6 region in Oromo, the TAS2R gene family in Fulani, and the ALMS1/NAT8 in Turkana and Samburu were enriched for non-African ancestry. Signals of positive selection varied in terms of geographic amplitude. Some genomic regions were selected across the Belt, the most striking example being the malaria-related DARC gene. Others were Western-specific (oxytocin, calcium, and heart pathways), Eastern-specific (lipid pathways), or even population-restricted (TAS2R genes in Fulani, which may reflect sexual selection).

Nonlinear behavior of gelatin networks reveals a hierarchical structure

We investigate the strain hardening behavior of various gelatin networks-namely physical gelatin gel, chemically cross-linked gelatin gel, and a hybrid gel made of a combination of the former two-under large shear deformations using the pre-stress, strain ramp, and large amplitude oscillations shear protocols. Further, the internal structures of physical gelatin gels and chemically cross-linked gelatin gels were characterized by small angle neutron scattering (SANS) to enable their internal structures to be correlated with their nonlinear rheology. The Kratky plots of SANS data demonstrate the presence of small cross-linked aggregates within the chemically cross-linked network whereas, in the physical gelatin gels, a relatively homogeneous structure is observed. Through model fitting to the scattering data, we were able to obtain structural parameters, such as the correlation length (ξ), the cross-sectional polymer chain radius (Rc) and the fractal dimension (df) of the gel networks. The fractal dimension df obtained from the SANS data of the physical and chemically cross-linked gels is 1.31 and 1.53, respectively. These values are in excellent agreement with the ones obtained from a generalized nonlinear elastic theory that has been used to fit the stress-strain curves. The chemical cross-linking that generates coils and aggregates hinders the free stretching of the triple helix bundles in the physical gels.