Nonparametric estimation of the survival function for ordered multivariate failure time data: a comparative study

In longitudinal studies of disease, patients may experience several events through a follow-up period. In these studies, the sequentially ordered events are often of interest and lead to problems that have received much attention recently. Issues of interest include the estimation of bivariate survival, marginal distributions and the conditional distribution of gap times. In this work we consider the estimation of the survival function conditional to a previous event. Different nonparametric approaches will be considered for estimating these quantities, all based on the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. We explore the finite sample behavior of the estimators through simulations. The different methods proposed in this article are applied to a data set from a German Breast Cancer Study. The methods are used to obtain predictors for the conditional survival probabilities as well as to study the influence of recurrence in overall survival.

Nonparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves conditional on a continuous covariate

The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.

Estimating the colors of paintings

Observers can adjust the spectrum of illumination on paintings for optimal viewing experience. But can they adjust the colors of paintings for the best visual impression? In an experiment carried out on a calibrated color moni- tor images of four abstract paintings obtained from hyperspectral data were shown to observers that were unfamiliar with the paintings. The color volume of the images could be manipulated by rotating the volume around the axis through the average (a*, b*) point for each painting in CIELAB color space. The task of the observers was to adjust the angle of rotation to produce the best subjective impression from the paintings. It was found that the distribution of angles selected for data pooled across paintings and observers could be de- scribed by a Gaussian function centered at 10o, i.e. very close to the original colors of the paintings. This result suggest that painters are able to predict well what compositions of colors observers prefer.

An algorithmic approach to estimating the minimal number of periodic points for smooth self-maps of simply-connected manifolds

For a given self-map f of M, a closed smooth connected and simply-connected manifold of dimension m ≥ 4, we provide an algorithm for estimating the values of the topological invariant Dm r [f], which equals the minimal number of r-periodic points in the smooth homotopy class of f. Our results are based on the combinatorial scheme for computing Dm r [f] introduced by G. Graff and J. Jezierski [J. Fixed Point Theory Appl. 13 (2013), 63–84]. An open-source implementation of the algorithm programmed in C++ is publicly available at http://www.pawelpilarczyk.com/combtop/.

Automatically estimating iSAX parameters

The Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (iSAX) is widely used in time series data mining. Its popularity arises from the fact that it largely reduces time series size, it is symbolic, allows lower bounding and is space efficient. However, it requires setting two parameters: the symbolic length and alphabet size, which limits the applicability of the technique. The optimal parameter values are highly application dependent. Typically, they are either set to a fixed value or experimentally probed for the best configuration. In this work we propose an approach to automatically estimate iSAX’s parameters. The approach – AutoiSAX – not only discovers the best parameter setting for each time series in the database, but also finds the alphabet size for each iSAX symbol within the same word. It is based on simple and intuitive ideas from time series complexity and statistics. The technique can be smoothly embedded in existing data mining tasks as an efficient sub-routine. We analyze its impact in visualization interpretability, classification accuracy and motif mining. Our contribution aims to make iSAX a more general approach as it evolves towards a parameter-free method.