Politically driven cycles in fiscal policy: in depth analysis of the functional components of government expenditures

NIPE - WP 02/2016

Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Self-monitoring of freeze–thaw damage using triphasic electric conductive concrete

The effect of freeze–thaw cycles on concrete is of great importance for durability evaluation of concrete structures in cold regions. In this paper, damage accumulation was studied by following the fractional change of impedance (FCI) with number of freeze–thaw cycles (N). The nano-carbon black (NCB), carbon fiber (CF) and steel fiber (SF) were added to plain concrete to produce the triphasic electrical conductive (TEC) and ductile concrete. The effects of NCB, CF and SF on the compressive strength, flexural properties, electrical impedance were investigated. The concrete beams with different dosages of conductive materials were studied for FCI, N and mass loss (ML), the relationship between FCI and N of conductive concrete can be well defined by a first order exponential decay curve. It is noted that this nondestructive and sensitive real-time testing method is meaningful for evaluating of freeze–thaw damage in concrete.

Uma abordagem à organização e tratamento de dados baseada na resolução de problemas

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ensino do 1.º e 2.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico

Desenvolvendo aprendizagens integradas

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Educação Pré-Escolar

Avaliação do desempenho de carteiras de fundos verdes em diferentes estados de mercado

Dissertação de mestrado em Finanças

Recycled asphalt mixtures produced with high percentage of different waste materials

The use of sustainable solutions in construction is not just an option, but is increasingly becoming a need of the Society. Thus, nowadays the recycling of waste materials is a growing technology that needs to be continuously improved, namely by researching new solutions for waste valorisation and by increasing the amount of wastes reused. In the paving industry, the reuse of reclaimed asphalt (RA) is becoming common practice, but needs further research work. Thus, this study aims to increase the incorporation of RA and other waste materials in the production of recycled asphalt mixtures in order to improve their mechanical, environmental and economic performance. Recycled mixtures with 50% RA were analysed in this study, including: i) RA selection, preparation and characterization; ii) incorporation of other waste materials as binder additives or modifiers, like used motor oil (UMO) and waste high density polyethylene (HDPE); iii) production of different mixtures (without additives; with UMO; with UMO and HDPE) and comparison of their performance in order to assess the main advantages of each solution. With this study it was concluded that up to 7.5 % of UMO and 4.0 % of HDPE can be used in a new modified binder for asphalt mixtures with 50 % of RA, which have excellent properties concerning the rutting with WTS = 0.02 mm/103 cycles, the fatigue resistance with ε6 = 160.4, and water sensitivity with an ITSR of 81.9 %.

A evolução das ideias dos alunos do 1º e 2º CEB sobre temas do meio físico com recurso a atividades do tipo laboratoriais

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ensino do 1.º e 2.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico

Carbonation front progress in mortars containing fly ash considering the presence of chloride ions

The incorporation of fly ash (FA) in cementitious matrices have been frequently used in order to make the matrix more resistant to the action of chlorides. On the other hand, it is known that Ca (OH)2 existing in the matrix is partially consumed by the pozzolanic reactions, which facilitates the advancement of carbonation. Given that the combined action between carbonation and chloride penetration is a fact little known, we speculate about the behaviour of the matrix in this context. This study investigates the influence of the presence of chlorides on the carbonation in mortars with FA. Samples with 0% and 40% replacement of cement CEM I 42.5 R for FA were molded with water/binder 0.56 and 0.52 respectively. After 90 days of curing the specimens were subjected to cycles of immersion/drying for 56 days. Half of the samples was subjected to the following cycle: two days in a solution containing NaCl (concentration equal to 3.5 %); 12 days in the carbonation chamber (4% of CO2). The other half was: two days in water; 12 days in the carbonation chamber. Then, the development of carbonation was evaluated. The results indicate that the presence of chlorides influences the carbonation. The specimens submitted to the exclusive action of CO2 showed a greater depth of carbonation compared to that presented by the specimens subjected to combined action. This may be related to changes in properties of the matrix which may lead to further refinement of the pores and related to the presence of the salt that can lead to partial filling of the pores and the increase in moisture content.

Exploração de temas do estudo do meio (1º CEB) e das ciências da natureza (2º CEB) através de uma estratégia de ensino das ciências do tipo Prevê-Observa-Explica-Reflete

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ensino do 1º e 2º Ciclo do Ensino Básico

Poly(vinylidene fluoride-co-chlorotrifluoroethylene) (PVDF-CTFE) lithium-ion battery separator membranes prepared by phase inversion

Separator membranes based on poly(vinylidene fluoride-co-chlorotrifluoroethylene) (PVDF-CTFE) were prepared by solvent casting technique based on its phase diagram in N,Ndimethylformamide (DMF) solvent. The microstructure of the PVDF-CTFE separator membranes depends on the initial position (temperature and concentration) of the solution in the phase diagram of the PVDF-CTFE/DMF system. A porous microstructure is achieved for PVDF-CTFE membranes with solvent evaporation temperature up to 50 ºC for a polymer/solvent relative concentration of 20 wt%. The ionic conductivity of the separator depends on the degree of porosity and electrolyte uptake, the highest room temperature value being 1.5 mS.cm-1 for the sample with 20 wt% of polymer concentration and solvent evaporation temperature at 25 ºC saturated with 1 mol L-1 lithium bis (trifluoromethanesulfonyl) imide (LiTFSI) in propylene carbonate (PC). This PVDF-CTFE separator membrane in Li/C-LiFePO4 half-cell shows good cyclability and rate capability, showing a discharge value after 50 cycles of 92 mAh.g-1 at 2 C, which is still 55% of the theoretical value. PVDF-CTFE separators are thus excellent candidates for high-power and safety lithium-ion batteries applications.

Mechanical fatigue performance of PCL-chondroprogenitor constructs after cell culture under bioreactor mechanical stimulus

In tissue engineering of cartilage, polymeric scaffolds are implanted in the damaged tissue and subjected to repeated compression loading cycles. The possibility of failure due to mechanical fatigue has not been properly addressed in these scaffolds. Nevertheless, the macroporous scaffold is susceptible to failure after repeated loading-unloading cycles. This is related to inherent discontinuities in the material due to the micropore structure of the macro-pore walls that act as stress concentration points. In this work, chondrogenic precursor cells have been seeded in Poly-ε-caprolactone (PCL) scaffolds with fibrin and some were submitted to free swelling culture and others to cyclic loading in a bioreactor. After cell culture, all the samples were analyzed for fatigue behavior under repeated loading-unloading cycles. Moreover, some components of the extracellular matrix (ECM) were identified. No differences were observed between samples undergoing free swelling or bioreactor loading conditions, neither respect to matrix components nor to mechanical performance to fatigue. The ECM did not achieve the desired preponderance of collagen type II over collagen type I which is considered the main characteristic of hyaline cartilage ECM. However, prediction in PCL with ECM constructs was possible up to 600 cycles, an enhanced performance when compared to previous works. PCL after cell culture presents an improved fatigue resistance, despite the fact that the measured elastic modulus at the first cycle was similar to PCL with poly(vinyl alcohol) samples. This finding suggests that fatigue analysis in tissue engineering constructs can provide additional information missed with traditional mechanical measurements.

In vitro mechanical fatigue behavior of poly-ε-caprolactone macroporous scaffolds for cartilage tissue engineering: Influence of pore filling by a poly(vinyl alcohol) gel

Polymeric scaffolds used in regenerative therapies are implanted in the damaged tissue and subjected to repeated loading cycles. In the case of articular cartilage engineering, an implanted scaffold is typically subjected to long term dynamic compression. The evolution of the mechanical properties of the scaffold during bioresorption has been deeply studied in the past, but the possibility of failure due to mechanical fatigue has not been properly addressed. Nevertheless, the macroporous scaffold is susceptible to failure after repeated loading-unloading cycles. In this work fatigue studies of polycaprolactone scaffolds were carried by subjecting the scaffold to repeated compression cycles in conditions simulating the scaffold implanted in the articular cartilage. The behaviour of the polycaprolactone sponge with the pores filled with a poly(vinyl alcohol) gel simulating the new formed tissue within the pores was compared with that of the material immersed in water. Results were analyzed with Morrow’s criteria for failure and accurate fittings are obtained just up to 200 loading cycles. It is also shown that the presence of poly(vinyl alcohol) increases the elastic modulus of the scaffolds, the effect being more pronounced with increasing the number of freeze/thawing cycles.

Sustentabilidade no Design: uma abordagem aos resíduos limpos das indústrias do calçado

Dissertação de mestrado em Design e Marketing

Sistema de reposição e de gestão de inventários na rede de lojas de uma empresa de retalho de moda

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão Industrial