Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Os programas de educação física e o desempenho motor na ginástica: um estudo exploratório com alunos do 12º ano de escolaridade

Relatório de estágio de mestre em Ensino de Educação Física nos Ensinos Básico e Secundário

Programa de atividade física e saúde - Projeto M&M: análise da intervenção relativamente ao IMC e aptidão cardiorrespiratória

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ensino de Educação Física nos Ensinos Básico e Secundário

A aquisição do léxico na aula de ELE a partir do enfoque comunicativo

Relatório de estágio de mestrado em Ensino de Português no 3.º Ciclo do Ensino Básico e no Ensino Secundário e de Espanhol nos Ensinos Básico e Secundário

O meu ponto de vista é um ponto de escuta. O poder do som nos filmes de Manoel de Oliveira

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Comunicação - Especialidade em Comunicação Audiovisual

Características e competências psicológicas associadas à excelência e ao sucesso no desporto: um estudo exploratório

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Psicologia

Promoting sustainability as a strategy to mitigate the effects of economic downturn on the construction industry

During the recent years followed by the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), most of business and industries around the globe have been hardly hit to the limit that it still struggling to survive, suffering from the crisis financial consequences. For instance, in the construction industry; many construction projects have been suspended or totally cancelled. Nevertheless, among this dilemma, a call has been raised to use the sustainable practices to mitigate the effects of the GFC on construction industry. For the first look, it seems that there is contradiction since the sustainable solutions are often associated with an increase in the initial cost, undoubtedly, the sustainable practices have many advantages in both economic and environment aspects, however, the question which needs to be addressed here is, to what extent using such sustainable practices can mitigate the negative effects of the economic downturn on construction industry. Therefore, it is a challenging argument for using such sustainable construction from its economic perspective, however, this paper is aiming to present the economical benefits of sustainable practices in construction industry, and trying to clear the doubt of the high initial costs of the sustainable construction through studying the life cycle benefit of green building.

Inkjet printing technology for flexible pressure sensors

Tese de Doutoramento Ciência e Engenharia de Polímeros e Compósitos.

Perceções dos enfermeiros e doentes com AVC sobre a educação para a saúde

Enquadramento: O Acidente Vascular Cerebral (AVC) acarreta múltiplas alterações no quotidiano do doente e seus familiares mas a reabilitação é considerada uma oportunidade. A Rede Nacional de Cuidados Continuados Integrados (RNCCI) facilita a reabilitação e a educação para a saúde possibilita a mudança de atitude necessária para a reabilitação. Objetivos: Conhecer e divulgar as perceções de doentes com AVC e enfermeiros relativamente às práticas de Educação para a Saúde na RNCCI. Metodologia: Qualitativa, com entrevista semi-estruturada, a 8 doentes e a 17 enfermeiros. A técnica escolhida foi a análise de conteúdo das entrevistas. Partimos de categorias definidas a priori, e emergiram outras categorias. Resultados: Os doentes atribuíram aos enfermeiros a maior parte da responsabilidade pela reabilitação. Os enfermeiros relacionaram os aspetos psicológicos e a importância do envolvimento da família com a adesão do doente ao regime terapêutico. Conclusão: Os doentes demonstram que se encontram no modelo biomédico, por outro lado os enfermeiros apontam o modelo biopsicossocial como orientador das suas práticas de Educação para a Saúde na rede.

School governance and academic excellence: the representations of distinguished students in an annual award of excellence

Within a research project on «academic excellence in the state school», this paper is a contribution to the sociological reflection on the cultural and organisational characteristics of the school and its relationship with the academic success of students. The data we present stem from a case study underway at a secondary school in the north of Portugal, referring to the universe of students that since 2003 have distinguished themselves for achieving grades equal to or greater than 18 (on a scale of 0 to 20) and have thus been included in the school’s Framework of Excellence. From a contextual approach to this educational practice, we focused on the cultural characteristics of the school/subject as analytical support for the study of school and non-school dimensions in their mutual connections. To this end, we used the information from document analysis and data collected from a questionnaire survey administered to more than two-thirds of the students included in the above-mentioned Framework of Excellence. Subsequently, we will use the data from this survey to understand the extent to which academic excellence is perceived as an indivisible social construction of the school’s political and organisational matrix, particularly in terms of the educational and teaching guidelines adopted by the management body. We will conclude by questioning the meaning of the school’s management policies regarding the emphasis on educational outcomes, with particular focus on the representations of excellent students in the processes of school leadership, teaching organisation, school merit and justice.

Sistemas solares e arquitetura: uma relação holística

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Arquitectura

Sucesso escolar e percursos vocacionais na adolescência: variáveis pessoais e contextuais

Tese de Doutoramento Ciências da Educação (Especialidade em Psicologia da Educação)

O ajustamento psicossocial de jovens com consumos de substâncias psicoativas em escolas profissionais do grande Porto

Tese de Doutoramento em Estudos da Criança (Área de Especialidade Psicologia do Desenvolvimento e Educação)

On the verification of architectural reconfigurations

In a reconfigurable system, the response to contextual or internal change may trigger reconfiguration events which, on their turn, activate scripts that change the system׳s architecture at runtime. To be safe, however, such reconfigurations are expected to obey the fundamental principles originally specified by its architect. This paper introduces an approach to ensure that such principles are observed along reconfigurations by verifying them against concrete specifications in a suitable logic. Architectures, reconfiguration scripts, and principles are specified in Archery, an architectural description language with formal semantics. Principles are encoded as constraints, which become formulas of a two-layer graded hybrid logic, where the upper layer restricts reconfigurations, and the lower layer constrains the resulting configurations. Constraints are verified by translating them into logic formulas, which are interpreted over models derived from Archery specifications of architectures and reconfigurations. Suitable notions of bisimulation and refinement, to which the architect may resort to compare configurations, are given, and their relationship with modal validity is discussed.

Logificação da Psicologia o itinerário intelectual de Edmundo Curvelo sobre a Mente, a Lógica e a Filosofia

Tese de Doutoramento em Filosofia - Especialidade de Filosofia da Mente