Nonparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves conditional on a continuous covariate

The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.

Mechanical ventilation for the treatment of severe excessive dynamic airway collapse

[Excerpt] We read with interest the case report by Ismael et al1 describing a patient with Sjo¨gren’s syndrome and cystic lung disease who could not be weaned from a ventilator due to severe central excessive dynamic airway collapse (EDAC) of the lower part of the trachea and proximal bronchi. EDAC corresponds to the expiratory bulging of the tracheobronchial wall without known airway structural abnormalities, leading to a decrease of at least 50% in internal diameter.2 It is a rare and underdiagnosed entity, commonly confused with other respiratory diseases such as asthma and COPD. Although noninvasive procedures such as cervicothoracic computed tomography scan on inspiration and expiration may suggest the disorder, the accepted standard method for diagnosis is bronchoscopy.3-7 (...).

HPV DNA testing with cytology triage in cervical cancer screening: Influence of revealing HPV infection status

BACKGROUND: Knowledge of cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) status might influence a cytotechnician's assessment of cellular abnormalities. The authors compared original cytotechnicians' Papanicolaou (Pap) readings for which HPV status was concealed with Pap rereads for which HPV status was revealed separately for 3 screening populations. METHODS: Previously collected cervical Pap smears and clinical data were obtained from the Canadian Cervical Cancer Screening Trial (study A), the Democratic Republic of Congo Community-Based Screening Study (study B), and the Brazilian Investigation into Nutrition and Cervical Cancer Prevention (study C). Smears were reread with knowledge of HPV status for all HPV-positive women as well as a sample of HPV-negative women. Diagnostic performance of Pap cytology was compared between original readings and rereads. RESULTS: A total of 1767 Pap tests were reread. Among 915 rereads for HPV-positive women, the contrast between "revealed" and "concealed" Pap readings demonstrated revisions from negative to positive results for 109 women (cutoff was atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance or worse) and 124 women (cutoff was low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions [LSIL] or worse). For a disease threshold of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia of grade 2 or worse, specificity significantly declined at the atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance cutoff for studies A (86.6% to 75.3%) and C (42.5% to 15.5%), and at the LSIL cutoff for study C (61.9% to 37.6%). Sensitivity remained nearly unchanged between readings, except in study C, in which reread performance was superior (91.3% vs 71.9% for the LSIL cutoff). CONCLUSIONS: A reduction in the diagnostic accuracy of Pap cytology was observed when revealing patients' cervical HPV status, possibly due to a heightened awareness of potential abnormalities, which led to more false-positive results. Cancer (Cancer Cytopathol) 2015. (c) 2015 American Cancer Society.

A inflação pela imaginação: Estudo dos efeitos interferentes

Tese de Doutoramento em Psicologia (Especialidade de Psicologia Experimental e Ciências Cognitivas)