Avaliação do desempenho de carteiras de fundos verdes em diferentes estados de mercado

Dissertação de mestrado em Finanças

Politically driven cycles in fiscal policy: in depth analysis of the functional components of government expenditures

NIPE - WP 02/2016

Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

The importance of risk assessment in the context of investment project management: a case study

Risk management is an important component of project management. Nevertheless, such process begins with risk assessment and evaluation. In this research project, a detailed analysis of the methodologies used to treat risks in investment projects adopted by the Banco da Amazonia S.A. was made. Investment projects submitted to the FNO (Constitutional Fund for Financing the North) during 2011 and 2012 were considered for that purpose. It was found that the evaluators of this credit institution use multiple indicators for risk assessment which assume a central role in terms of decision-making and contribute for the approval or the rejection of the submitted projects; namely, the proven ability to pay, the financial records of project promotors, several financial restrictions, level of equity, level of financial indebtedness, evidence of the existence of a consumer market, the proven experience of the partners/owners in the business, environmental aspects, etc. Furthermore, the bank has technological systems to support the risk assessment process, an internal communication system and a unique system for the management of operational risk.

Caso de demonstração de uma framework para automatização do teste de APIs de aplicações SaaS

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia e Gestão de Sistemas de Informação

Lithium-doped silk fibroin films for application in electrochromic devices

Silk fibroin (SF) is a commonly available natural biopolymer produced in specialized glands of arthropods, with a long history of use in textile production and also in health cares. The exceptional intrinsic properties of these fibers, such as self-assembly, machinability, biocompatibility, biodegradation or non-toxicity, offer a wide range of exciting opportunities [1]. It has long been recognized that silk can be a rich source of inspiration for designing new materials with tailored properties, enhanced performance and high added value for targeted applications, opening exciting new prospects in the domain of materials science and related technological fields, including bio-friendly integration, miniaturization and multifunctionalization. In recent years it has been demonstrated that fibroin is an excellent material for active components in optics and photonics devices. Progress in new technological fields such as optics, photonics and electronics are emerging [2,3]. The incorporation of polymer electrolytes as components of various devices (advanced batteries, smart windows, displays and supercapacitors) offers significant advantages with respect to traditional electrolytes, including enhanced reliability and improved safety. SF films are particularly attractive in this context. They have near-perfect transparency across the VIS range, surface flatness (together with outstanding mechanical robustness), ability to replicate patterned substrates and their thickness may be easily tailored from a few nanometers to hundreds of micrometers through spin-casting of a silk solution into subtract. Moreover, fibroin can be added to other biocomponents or salts in order to modify the biomaterial properties leading to optimized and total different functions. Preliminary tests performed with a prototype electrochromic device (ECD) incorporating SF films doped with lithium triflate and lithium tetrafluoroborate (LiTFSI and LiBF4, respectively) as electrolyte and WO3 as cathodic electrochromic layer, are extremely encouraging. Aiming to evaluate the performance of the ion conducting SF membranes doped with LiTFSI and LiBF4 (SF-Li), small ECDs with glass/ITO/WO3/SF-Li/CeO2-TiO2/ITO/glass configuration were assembled and characterized. The device exhibited, after 4500 cycles, the insertion of charge at -3.0 V reached –1.1 mC.cm-2 in 15 s. After 4500 cycles the window glass-staining, glass/ITO/WO3/Fibrin-Li salts electrolyte/CeO2-TiO2/ITO/glass configuration was reversible and featured a T  8 % at λ = 686 nm

Controlador com FPGA para um motor-in-wheel CA de fluxo axial

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Eletrónica Industrial e de Computadores

Biomaterials for cartilage tissue engineering under mechanical stimulus

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências (Especialidade de Física)

Durabilidade de colagens estruturais em elementos de madeira

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil