Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

Predicting plateau pressure in intensive medicine for ventilated patients

Barotrauma is identified as one of the leading diseases in Ventilated Patients. This type of problem is most common in the Intensive Care Units. In order to prevent this problem the use of Data Mining (DM) can be useful for predicting their occurrence. The main goal is to predict the occurence of Barotrauma in order to support the health professionals taking necessary precautions. In a first step intensivists identified the Plateau Pressure values as a possible cause of Barotrauma. Through this study DM models (classification) where induced for predicting the Plateau Pressure class (>=30 cm

Measurement of charged-particle spectra in Pb+Pb collisions at √sNN = 2.76TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

Charged-particle spectra obtained in 0.15nb−1 of Pb+Pb interactions at sNN−−−√=2.76TeV and 4.2pb−1 of pp interactions at s√=2.76TeV with the ATLAS detector at the LHC are presented in a wide transverse momentum (0.5plateau at a centrality-dependent value, within the uncertainties. The value is 0.55±0.01(stat.)±0.04(syst.) in the most central collisions. The RAA distribution is consistent with flat |η| dependence over the whole transverse momentum range in all centrality classes.

Extreme value Birnbaum-Saunders regression models applied to environmental data

Extreme value models are widely used in different areas. The Birnbaum–Saunders distribution is receiving considerable attention due to its physical arguments and its good properties. We propose a methodology based on extreme value Birnbaum–Saunders regression models, which includes model formulation, estimation, inference and checking. We further conduct a simulation study for evaluating its performance. A statistical analysis with real-world extreme value environmental data using the methodology is provided as illustration.

Mycotoxin contamination of Maize and Guinea corn from markets in Plateau State, Nigeria

Maize (Zea mays) and guinea corn (Sorghum bicolor) are major food items in Plateau state, Nigeria. A multistage sampling technique was used to select the markets and store/warehouses used for this study; sample collection employed a simple random sampling method from different sampling points within designated areas. A total of 18 representative samples were collected and analyzed for the following mycotoxins: aflatoxins (Aflatoxin B1 - AFB1, Aflatoxin B2 - AFB2, Aflatoxin G1 - AFG1 and Aflatoxin G2 - AFG2), fumonisins (Fumonisin B1 - FB1 and Fumonisin B2 - FB2 ) and cyclopiazonic acid (CPA). Out of 12 samples analyzed for Aflatoxins, AFB1 was detected in 5, AFB2 in 1, AFG1 in 1 and AFG2 in 6 samples respectively. The highest concentration of AFB1 and AFG2 were found in maize samples from Pankshin market. Only maize samples from Mangu market were contaminated with AFB2 and also harboured the lowest concentration of AFG2. AFG1 contamination occurred in only guinea corn from Shendam market. and FB1 was detected in all 18 samples analyzed. The mycotoxin CPA was not detected in any of the samples. Aflatoxins levels in analyzed samples were regarded as safe based on Nigerian and European Union maximum permissible levels of 4g/kg. With the exception of two samples, FB1 levels in analyzed maize samples were within European Union maximum permissible levels of 1,000 to 3000g/kg. The health and food safety implications of these results for the human and animal population are further discussed.

“Learning-by-producing” in the fashion value chain

Proceedings da AUTEX 2015, Bucareste, Roménia.

Nutritional value, bioactive compounds and antioxidant properties of three edible mushrooms from Poland

Mushrooms contain a multitude of biomolecules with nutritional and/or biological activity. Among the bioactive molecules, phenolic compounds and tocopherols are the most responsible for their antioxidant activity. In the present work, Boletus edulis, Lentinus edodes and Xerocomus badius, three edible mushroom species originated from Poland, were analyzed for their chemical composition and antioxidant activity. Carbohydrates were the most abundant macronutrients, followed by proteins and ash. Fructose, mannitol and trehalose were the prevalent sugars, but glucose was only found in B. edulis. Polyunsaturated fatty acids predominated over mono and saturated fatty acids. Palmitic, oleic and linoleic acids were abundant in the three samples. α- and β- Tocopherols were quantified in all the samples, but γ-tocopherol was only identified in X. badius. Oxalic and fumaric acids were quantified in the three samples; quinic acid was only present in L. edodes, and malic and citric acids were only found in X. badius. p-Hydroxybenzoic, protocatechuic and cinnamic acids were quantified in all the species, while p-coumaric acid was only found in B. edulis. This species and X. badius revealed the highest antioxidant properties, being B. edulis more effective in radicals scavenging activity and reducing power, and X. badius in lipid peroxidation inhibition, which is related with the highest amounts in phenolic compounds and tocopherols, respectively.

Lewis Score - Prognostic value in patients with isolated small bowel Crohn's disease

Background and aims: Small bowel capsule endoscopy (SBCE) allows mapping of small bowel inflammation in Crohn’s disease (CD). We aimed to assess the prognostic value of the severity of inflammatory lesions, quantified by the Lewis score (LS), in patients with isolated small bowel CD. Methods: A retrospective study was performed in which 53 patients with isolated small bowel CD were submitted to SBCE at the time of diagnosis. The Lewis score was calculated and patients had at least 12 months of follow-up after diagnosis. As adverse events we defined disease flare requiring systemic corticosteroid therapy, hospitalization and/or surgery during follow-up. We compared the incidence of adverse events in 2 patient subgroups, i.e. those with moderate or severe inflammatory activity (LS =790) and those with mild inflammatory activity (135 = LS < 790). Results: The LS was =790 in 22 patients (41.5%), while 58.5% presented with LS between 135 and 790. Patients with a higher LS were more frequently smokers (p = 0.01), males (p = 0017) and under immunosuppressive therapy (p = 0.004). In multivariate analysis, moderate to severe disease at SBCE was independently associated with corticosteroid therapy during follow-up, with a relative risk (RR) of 5 (p = 0.011; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5–17.8), and for hospitalization, with an RR of 13.7 (p = 0 .028; 95% CI 1.3–141.9). Conclusion: In patients with moderate to severe inflammatory activity there were higher prevalences of corticosteroid therapy demand and hospitalization during follow-up. Thus, stratifying the degree of small bowel inflammatory activity with SBCE and LS calculation at the time of diagnosis provided relevant prognostic value in patients with isolated small bowel CD.

Critical events in mechanically ventilated patients

Mechanical Ventilation is an artificial way to help a Patient to breathe. This procedure is used to support patients with respiratory diseases however in many cases it can provoke lung damages, Acute Respiratory Diseases or organ failure. With the goal to early detect possible patient breath problems a set of limit values was defined to some variables monitored by the ventilator (Average Ventilation Pressure, Compliance Dynamic, Flow, Peak, Plateau and Support Pressure, Positive end-expiratory pressure, Respiratory Rate) in order to create critical events. A critical event is verified when a patient has a value higher or lower than the normal range defined for a certain period of time. The values were defined after elaborate a literature review and meeting with physicians specialized in the area. This work uses data streaming and intelligent agents to process the values collected in real-time and classify them as critical or not. Real data provided by an Intensive Care Unit were used to design and test the solution. In this study it was possible to understand the importance of introduce critical events for Mechanically Ventilated Patients. In some cases a value is considered critical (can trigger an alarm) however it is a single event (instantaneous) and it has not a clinical significance for the patient. The introduction of critical events which crosses a range of values and a pre-defined duration contributes to improve the decision-making process by decreasing the number of false positives and having a better comprehension of the patient condition.

Exploitation of Ashbya gossypii for the production of high-value products from glycerol feedstocks

Dissertação de mestrado em Bioengenharia